Bundesliga
· Regular Season - 27
March 21, 2026 16:30
✗Model wrong — prediction Bayer Leverkusen, result Pareggio
Match statistics
5
Shots on target
5
1.57
Actual xG
1.62
38%
Possession
62%
2
Corners
5
Pre-match prediction
16.97%
1.
23.16%
X ←
59.87%
Bayer
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
23.16%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.75
1.57
+0.82
1.76
1.62
-0.14
xG dominance was balanced (1.57 – 1.62).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
