MLS
· Regular Season - 5
March 21, 2026 22:30
Match statistics
3
Shots on target
4
0.85
Actual xG
2.52
47%
Possession
53%
6
Corners
2
Pre-match prediction
32.48%
Philadelphia
32.73%
X
34.79%
Chicago ←
we assigned to the actual result (Chicago Fire)
34.79%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.88
0.85
-0.03
1.07
2.52
+1.45
Chicago Fire dominated by xG (2.52 vs 0.85).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
