MLS
· Regular Season - 5
March 22, 2026 01:30
Match statistics
3
Shots on target
1
0.26
Actual xG
0.16
71%
Possession
29%
3
Corners
4
Pre-match prediction
37.85%
Atlanta
32.02%
X ←
30.13%
DC
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
32.02%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.33
0.26
-1.07
0.74
0.16
-0.58
xG dominance was balanced (0.26 – 0.16).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
