Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 27
March 22, 2026 17:30
✗Model wrong — prediction Estoril, result Rio Ave vince
Match statistics
4
Shots on target
8
1.15
Actual xG
1.65
55%
Possession
45%
10
Corners
7
Pre-match prediction
55.61%
Estoril
24.16%
X
20.23%
Rio ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Rio Ave)
20.23%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.68
1.15
-0.53
0.87
1.65
+0.78
Rio Ave dominated by xG (1.65 vs 1.15).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
