Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 27
March 22, 2026 20:00
✓Model correct — prediction Sporting CP
Match statistics
4
Shots on target
9
0.83
Actual xG
1.33
31%
Possession
69%
3
Corners
1
Pre-match prediction
17.63%
Alverca
19.9%
X
62.47%
Sporting ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Sporting CP)
62.47%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.91
0.83
-0.08
2.11
1.33
-0.78
Sporting CP dominated by xG (1.33 vs 0.83).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
