← Liga 3

Academica - Trofense

Liga 3 May 16, 2026 17:30
Academica
#2 · 25 pts
vs
Trofense
#3 · 28 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
59.13%
Win
Academica
27.21%
Draw
13.66%
Win
Trofense
1.4
Expected xG
0.5
Model prediction
Academica
59.13%
Probability
42.9%
1X2 accuracy · 7 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Academica a 59% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 13% for Trofense. Expected goals are 1.4 for Academica and 0.5 for Trofense (total 1.9), with a 64% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 21.0% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Academica have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Trofense.

Score Matrix
↕ Academica Trofense →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.0% 7.4% 1.8% 0.3% — —
1 21.0% 10.4% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% —
2 14.7% 7.3% 1.8% 0.3% — —
3 6.9% 3.4% 0.9% 0.1% — —
4 2.4% 1.2% 0.3% — — —
5 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% — — —
Recent form
Academica Academica
D Mafra 3–3
W Varzim 1–0
D União Santarém 1–1
W CF Os Belenenses 2–1
D Amarante 1–1
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 43%
Trofense Trofense
D Guimaraes B 1–1
D Amarante 0–0
L Mafra 1–0
L Varzim 0–1
W União Santarém 0–1
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 28%
Playing profile
Academica Academica
Attack
35
Defence
71
Form
58
Trofense Trofense
Attack
15
Defence
79
Form
49
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
Academica
0
Draw
0
Trofense
W 22 Mar 2026 Liga 3 2–1
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Atlético CP Atlético CP 10 26
1 Guimaraes B Guimaraes B 18 29
1 Amarante Amarante 13 28
1 São João Ver São João Ver 10 21
1 CF Os Belenenses CF Os Belenenses 18 38
2 Amarante Amarante 18 29
2 Academica Academica 13 25
2 Fafe Fafe 10 21
2 Mafra Mafra 18 34
2 Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911 10 24
3 Trofense Trofense 18 28
3 CF Os Belenenses CF Os Belenenses 13 23
3 Paredes Paredes 10 21
3 Academica Academica 18 28
3 Caldas Caldas 10 19
4 SC Covilha SC Covilha 10 18
4 União Santarém União Santarém 18 25
4 Guimaraes B Guimaraes B 13 17
4 AD Marco 09 AD Marco 09 10 18
4 Varzim Varzim 18 28
5 Mafra Mafra 13 17
5 Paredes Paredes 18 27
5 SC Braga B SC Braga B 10 17
5 Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911 18 22
5 1º Dezembro 1º Dezembro 10 16
6 Atlético CP Atlético CP 18 22
6 Amora Amora 10 13
6 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 10 11
6 Varzim Varzim 13 13
6 SC Braga B SC Braga B 18 25
7 Trofense Trofense 13 10
7 Amora Amora 18 21
7 Fafe Fafe 18 24
8 AD Marco 09 AD Marco 09 18 19
8 Caldas Caldas 18 21
8 União Santarém União Santarém 13 9
9 São João Ver São João Ver 18 14
9 1º Dezembro 1º Dezembro 18 17
10 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 18 13
10 SC Covilha SC Covilha 18 14
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Academica vs Trofense?
The model gives Academica a 59% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 13% for an Trofense win.
How many goals are expected in Academica vs Trofense?
Expected goals: Academica 1.4, Trofense 0.5 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 64%.
What is the most likely score in Academica vs Trofense?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 21.0%.