Conference League · Round of 16 March 19, 2026 18:45

AEK Athens FC

#3 · 13 pts

0 – 2

Final score

Celje

#13 · 10 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction AEK Athens FC, result Celje vince

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave AEK Athens FC a 59% win probability (draw 17%, Celje 22%). The final result was AEK Athens FC 0–2 Celje. In 2 previous meetings, AEK Athens FC have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Celje.

Match statistics

5

Shots on target

3

0.98

Actual xG

1.21

43%

Possession

57%

11

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

59.92%

AEK

17.26%

X

22.82%

Celje ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Celje) 22.82% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

AEK

4.50

0.98

-3.52

Celje

1.06

1.21

+0.15

xG dominance was balanced (0.98 – 1.21). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Strasbourg	6	16
2	Raków Częstochowa	6	14
3	AEK Athens FC	6	13
4	Sparta Praha	6	13
5	Rayo Vallecano	6	13
6	Shakhtar Donetsk	6	13
7	FSV Mainz 05	6	13
8	AEK Larnaca	6	12
9	Lausanne	6	11
10	Crystal Palace	6	10
11	Lech Poznan	6	10
12	Samsunspor	6	10
13	Celje	6	10
14	AZ Alkmaar	6	10
15	Fiorentina	6	9
16	HNK Rijeka	6	9
17	Jagiellonia	6	9
18	Omonia Nicosia	6	8
19	FC Noah	6	8
20	Drita	6	8
21	KuPS	6	7
22	Shkendija	6	7
23	Zrinjski	6	7
24	Sigma Olomouc	6	7
25	Universitatea Craiova	6	7
26	Lincoln Red Imps FC	6	7
27	Dynamo Kyiv	6	6
28	Legia Warszawa	6	6
29	Slovan Bratislava	6	6
30	Breidablik	6	5
31	Shamrock Rovers	6	4
32	BK Hacken	6	3
33	Hamrun Spartans	6	3
34	Shelbourne	6	2
35	Aberdeen	6	2
36	Rapid Vienna	6	1