First Division
· Championship Group - 32
May 03, 2026 16:00
Diego Rosa
67'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave AEK Larnaca a 42% win probability (draw 24%, Apoel Nicosia 33%). The final result was Apoel Nicosia 1–0 AEK Larnaca. In 3 previous meetings, Apoel Nicosia have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for AEK Larnaca.
Match statistics
4
Shots on target
4
0.65
Actual xG
0.81
39%
Possession
61%
7
Corners
8
Match Events
K. Laifis
14'
61'
D. Ivanovic
/
A. Cardero
Vitor Meer
64'
D. Mancini
/ Gabriel Maioli
67'
P. Olayinka
/ N. Koutsakos
67'
⚽Diego Rosa
67'
73'
M. Rohden
/
Ledes Gustavo
73'
G. Naoum
/
G. Ekpolo
Diego Rosa
75'
Diego Rosa
/ E. Antoniou
76'
80'
C. Kyriakou
/
P. Pons
80'
Mathias Gonzalez
/
R. Mudrazija
81'
C. Kyriakou
M. Tomas
/ C. Poursaitidis
87'
C. Poursaitidis
90'+1
Gabriel Pereira
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
33.24%
Apoel ←
24.69%
X
42.06%
AEK
we assigned to the actual result (Apoel Nicosia)
33.24%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.34
0.65
-0.69
1.61
0.81
-0.8
xG dominance was balanced (0.65 – 0.81).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Gabriel Pereira
G
6
Vitor Meer
D
34
K. Laifis
D
31
D
14
Nanú
D
29
Diego Rosa
1 ⚽
M
20
Dálcio
M
23
Panagiotis Kattirtzis
M
15
Mathías Tomás
M
77
Daniel Mancini
M
9
Stefan Dražić
F
Bench
21
Constantinos Poursaitides
D
11
Gabriel Maioli
M
89
Nikolas Koutsakos
F
99
Peter Olayinka
M
1
G
14
Ángel García
D
27
V. Roberge
D
15
Hrvoje Miličević
D
22
G. Ekpolo
D
17
Pere Pons
M
7
Gus Ledes
M
86
Álex Cardero
M
32
Robert Mudražija
M
21
Jorge Miramón
M
11
Riad Bajić
F
Bench
51
Andreas Paraskevas
G
25
Chambos Kyriakou
M
9
Đorđe Ivanović
M
29
Giorgos Naoum
M
8
M. Rohden
M
2
Petros Ioannou
D
Apoel Nicosia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Pereira | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Meer | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Laifis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Nanú | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Rosa | M | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dálcio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Panagiotis Kattirtzis | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathías Tomás | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Mancini | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Dražić | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
AEK Larnaca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ángel García | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Roberge | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hrvoje Miličević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Ekpolo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pere Pons | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gus Ledes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álex Cardero | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Mudražija | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Miramón | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riad Bajić | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Apoel Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca?
The final score was Apoel Nicosia 1–0 AEK Larnaca.
What did the model predict before Apoel Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Apoel Nicosia win, 24% to a draw, and 42% to an AEK Larnaca win.