Champions League · Round of 16 March 18, 2026 21:00

Bayern München

#2 · 21 pts

4 – 1

Final score

Atalanta

#15 · 13 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 74% win probability (draw 14%, Atalanta 11%). The final result was Bayern München 4–1 Atalanta. In 1 previous meetings, Bayern München have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Atalanta.

Match statistics

8

Shots on target

8

3.61

Actual xG

2.30

71%

Possession

29%

6

Corners

3

Pre-match prediction

74.21%

Bayern ←

14.27%

X

11.52%

Atalanta

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 74.21% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Bayern

3.18

3.61

+0.43

Atalanta

0.62

2.30

+1.68

Bayern München dominated by xG (3.61 vs 2.30). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Arsenal	8	24
2	Bayern München	8	21
3	Liverpool	8	18
4	Tottenham	8	17
5	Barcelona	8	16
6	Chelsea	8	16
7	Sporting CP	8	16
8	Manchester City	8	16
9	Real Madrid	8	15
10	Inter	8	15
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	14
12	Newcastle	8	14
13	Juventus	8	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13
15	Atalanta	8	13
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10
20	Galatasaray	8	10
21	Monaco	8	10
22	Qarabag	8	10
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9
24	Benfica	8	9
25	Marseille	8	9
26	Pafos	8	9
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8
29	Athletic Club	8	8
30	Napoli	8	8
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8
32	Ajax	8	6
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4
34	Slavia Praha	8	3
35	Villarreal	8	1
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1