Champions League
· Quarter-finals
April 15, 2026 21:00
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
A. Pavlovic
(ast. J. Kimmich)
6'
H. Kane
(ast. D. Upamecano)
38'
L. Diaz
(ast. J. Musiala)
89'
M. Olise
(ast. H. Kane)
90'+4
1'
A. Guler
29'
A. Guler
42'
(ast. Vinicius Junior)
K. Mbappe
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 66% win probability (draw 16%, Real Madrid 17%). The final result was Bayern München 4–3 Real Madrid. In 1 previous meetings, Bayern München have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Real Madrid.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
9
9
Shots on target
5
2.09
Actual xG
2.27
2
Saves
4
69%
Possession
31%
9
Corners
2
15
Tackles
14
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
1'
A. Guler⚽
⚽A. Pavlovic
· ast. J. Kimmich
6'
J. Stanisic
29'
29'
A. Guler⚽
⚽H. Kane
· ast. D. Upamecano
38'
40'
Eder Militao
42'
ast. Vinicius Junior ·
K. Mbappe⚽
V. Kompany
44'
J. Stanisic
/ A. Davies
46'
S. Gnabry
/ J. Musiala
61'
62'
E. Camavinga
/
B. Diaz
70'
A. Rudiger
78'
E. Camavinga
86'
E. Camavinga
86'
E. Camavinga
⚽L. Diaz
· ast. J. Musiala
89'
⚽M. Olise
· ast. H. Kane
90'+4
90'+5
A. Guler
90'
T. Pitarch
/
T. Alexander-Arnold
90'
F. Mastantuono
/
A. Guler
Pre-match prediction
66.23%
Bayern ←
16.08%
X
17.69%
Real
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München)
66.23%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.13
2.09
-1.04
1.84
2.27
+0.43
xG dominance was balanced (2.09 – 2.27).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
M. Neuer
G
27
K. Laimer
D
K. Laimer
D
4
Jonathan Tah
D
2
D. Upamecano
1 👟
D
D. Upamecano
1 👟
D
44
J. Stanisic
45'
D
45
A. Pavlović
1 ⚽
M
A. Pavlović
1 ⚽
M
6
J. Kimmich
1 👟
M
J. Kimmich
1 👟
M
14
L. Díaz
1 ⚽
M
L. Díaz
1 ⚽
M
7
S. Gnabry
61'
M
S. Gnabry
61'
M
17
M. Olise
1 ⚽
M
M. Olise
1 ⚽
M
9
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
H. Kane
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
19
A. Davies
45'
D
21
H. Ito
D
10
J. Musiala
1 👟
29'
M
J. Musiala
1 👟
29'
M
3
Kim Min-Jae
D
8
Leon Goretzka
M
11
N. Jackson
F
22
R. Guerreiro
D
13
G
23
F. Mendy
D
22
Antonio Rüdiger
D
Antonio Rüdiger
D
3
Eder Militao
D
12
Trent Alexander-Arnold
89'
D
Trent Alexander-Arnold
89'
D
15
A. Güler
2 ⚽
89'
M
A. Güler
2 ⚽
89'
M
8
F. Valverde
M
F. Valverde
M
5
Jude Bellingham
M
Jude Bellingham
M
21
Brahim Díaz
62'
M
Brahim Díaz
62'
M
7
Vinícius Júnior
1 👟
F
Vinícius Júnior
1 👟
F
10
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
F
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
F
Bench
18
Álvaro Fernández
D
Álvaro Fernández
D
24
Dean Huijsen
D
Dean Huijsen
D
6
Eduardo Camavinga
24'
M
Eduardo Camavinga
24'
M
30
Franco Mastantuono
1'
F
Franco Mastantuono
1'
F
20
Fran García
D
Fran García
D
16
Gonzalo García
F
Gonzalo García
F
45
Thiago Pitarch
1'
M
Thiago Pitarch
1'
M
Best on the pitch
J. Kimmich
M · Bayern
8.70
1 👟
1 shots
· 118 pass
A. Güler
M · Real
8.60
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 30 pass
Kylian Mbappé
F · Real
8.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 25 pass
M. Olise
M · Bayern
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 66 pass
A. Pavlović
M · Bayern
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 98 pass
H. Kane
F · Bayern
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 29 pass
Bayern München — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Neuer | G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 14% | — | — | — |
| K. Laimer | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Jonathan Tah | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 41 | 41% | — | — | — |
| D. Upamecano | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 66 | 59% | 5 | — | — |
| J. Stanisic | D | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Pavlović | M | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 98 | 93% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Kimmich | M | 90 | 8.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 118 | 102% | 4 | — | — |
| L. Díaz | M | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 52 | 46% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Gnabry | M | 61 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 26% | — | — | — |
| M. Olise | M | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 66 | 55% | — | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 90 | 8.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| A. Davies | D | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 32 | 30% | — | — | — |
| J. Musiala | M | 29 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
Real Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| F. Mendy | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Antonio Rüdiger | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 29 | 26% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Eder Militao | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | D | 89 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 17% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Güler | M | 89 | 8.60 | 2 | — | 2 | 30 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Valverde | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 23% | 4 | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 90 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 25 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Eduardo Camavinga | M | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Franco Mastantuono | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Thiago Pitarch | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bayern München vs Real Madrid?
The final score was Bayern München 4–3 Real Madrid.
What did the model predict before Bayern München vs Real Madrid?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Bayern München win, 16% to a draw, and 17% to an Real Madrid win.