Brasileirão Série B
· Regular Season - 4
April 12, 2026 03:30
Fernandinho
47'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Ceara a 34% win probability (draw 32%, Nautico Recife 32%). The final result was Ceara 1–0 Nautico Recife.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
12
5
Shots on target
3
1.36
Actual xG
0.78
3
Saves
4
41%
Possession
59%
3
Corners
3
10
Tackles
13
4
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
6'
Derek
12'
Matheus Ribeiro
Fernandinho
24'
33'
Leonai Souza
46'
Ramon
/
Leonai Souza
46'
Arnaldo
/
Matheus Ribeiro
⚽Fernandinho
47'
Diego
/ Julio Cesar
58'
Fernandinho
/ Giulio
58'
60'
Victor Andrade
/
Juninho
Matheus Araujo
62'
62'
Mateus Silva
65'
Paulo Sergio
/
Derek
Vina
/ Juan Alano
67'
Matheus Araujo
/ Wendel Silva
67'
72'
Felipe Saraiva
/
Dodo
Matheusinho
/ Melk
73'
Sanchez
76'
Alex Silva
77'
Pre-match prediction
34.47%
Ceara ←
32.92%
X
32.61%
Nautico
we assigned to the actual result (Ceara)
34.47%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.17
1.36
+0.19
1.06
0.78
-0.28
Ceara dominated by xG (1.36 vs 0.78).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
Richard
G
12
Sánchez
D
Sánchez
D
4
D
33
D
21
Alex Silva
D
Alex Silva
D
20
Dieguinho
58'
M
Dieguinho
58'
M
31
Lucas Lima
M
Lucas Lima
M
8
Matheus Araújo
67'
M
Matheus Araújo
67'
M
29
Vina
67'
M
Vina
67'
M
98
Matheusinho
73'
M
11
Fernandinho
1 ⚽
58'
F
Fernandinho
1 ⚽
58'
F
Bench
94
Bruno Ferreira
G
Bruno Ferreira
G
17
Fernando
D
Fernando
D
35
Giulio
32'
F
Giulio
32'
F
81
João Gabriel
M
João Gabriel
M
10
Juan Alano
23'
F
Juan Alano
23'
F
18
Júlio César
32'
D
Júlio César
32'
D
40
Melk
17'
M
Melk
17'
M
9
Wendel Silva
23'
F
1
G
6
D
23
D
25
Mateus Silva
D
14
Matheus Ribeiro
45'
D
Matheus Ribeiro
45'
D
19
Leonai Souza
45'
M
8
Wenderson
M
Wenderson
M
7
Vinícius
M
Vinícius
M
10
Dodô
72'
M
Dodô
72'
M
77
Juninho
60'
M
72
Derek Freitas
65'
F
Derek Freitas
65'
F
Bench
98
Felipe Saraiva
18'
F
Felipe Saraiva
18'
F
9
Paulo Sergio
25'
F
41
Samuel
M
Samuel
M
11
Victor Andrade
30'
F
Victor Andrade
30'
F
Best on the pitch
Fernandinho
F · Ceara
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 9 pass
D · Ceara
7.50
· 38 pass
Alex Silva
D · Ceara
7.30
· 36 pass
D · Ceara
7.20
· 36 pass
Vinícius
M · Nautico
7.00
1 shots
· 47 pass
Felipe Saraiva
F · Nautico
7.00
1 shots
· 8 pass
Ceara — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Sánchez | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 33% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 35% | 1 | — | — | |
| Alex Silva | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 31% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Dieguinho | M | 58 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Lima | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Araújo | M | 67 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Vina | M | 67 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Matheusinho | M | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Fernandinho | F | 58 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 9% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Giulio | F | 32 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Juan Alano | F | 23 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Júlio César | D | 32 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Melk | M | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Wendel Silva | F | 23 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Nautico Recife — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 35% | 1 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 58 | 52% | 1 | — | — | |
| Mateus Silva | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 57 | 50% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Matheus Ribeiro | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Leonai Souza | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 23 | 23% | — | 1 | — |
| Wenderson | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 47 | 43% | — | — | — |
| Vinícius | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Dodô | M | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 20 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Juninho | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Derek Freitas | F | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 9 | 6% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Felipe Saraiva | F | 18 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Paulo Sergio | F | 25 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Victor Andrade | F | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Ceara vs Nautico Recife?
The final score was Ceara 1–0 Nautico Recife.
What did the model predict before Ceara vs Nautico Recife?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Ceara win, 32% to a draw, and 32% to an Nautico Recife win.