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FC Cajamarca - Sporting Cristal

Liga 1 May 15, 2026 22:00
FC Cajamarca
#17 · 12 pts
vs
Sporting Cristal
#12 · 16 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 11.3°C 💨 1 km/h · Cajamarca
⚡ Pre-match analysis
41.4%
Win
FC Cajamarca
23.35%
Draw
35.25%
Win
Sporting Cristal
1.75
Expected xG
1.58

The ForzaPitch prediction gives FC Cajamarca a 41% win probability, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Sporting Cristal. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Cajamarca and 1.6 for Sporting Cristal (total 3.3), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.9% probability.

Score Matrix
↕ FC Cajamarca Sporting Cristal →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.6% 5.7% 4.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
1 6.3% 9.9% 7.8% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5%
2 5.5% 8.7% 6.8% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4%
3 3.2% 5.1% 4.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
4 1.4% 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% —
Recent form
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
W UTC Cajamarca 1–2
W Sport Boys 3–2
L UCV Moquegua 2–1
L Cusco 1–0
D ADT 2–2
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 14%
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
D Alianza Lima 1–1
D Cusco 2–2
L Comerciantes Unidos 1–0
L Atletico Grau 4–1
W UTC Cajamarca 3–2
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 23%
Playing profile
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
Attack
34
Defence
43
Form
38
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
Attack
43
Defence
54
Form
39
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 14 33
2 Club Deportivo Los Chankas Club Deportivo Los Chankas 14 30
3 Cienciano Cienciano 14 29
4 Universitario Universitario 14 25
5 FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 14 21
6 Cusco Cusco 14 21
7 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 14 20
8 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 14 19
9 Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 14 17
10 ADT ADT 14 17
11 UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 14 17
12 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 14 16
13 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 14 16
14 Sport Huancayo Sport Huancayo 14 15
15 Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College 14 15
16 Sport Boys Sport Boys 14 13
17 FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 14 12
18 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 14 10
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win FC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
The model gives FC Cajamarca a 41% win probability, 23% for a draw, and 35% for an Sporting Cristal win.
How many goals are expected in FC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
Expected goals: FC Cajamarca 1.8, Sporting Cristal 1.6 (total 3.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in FC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.9%.