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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 30 April 19, 2026 23:30
FC Porto
#1 · 85 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Tondela
#17 · 28 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FC Porto
G. Veiga (ast. D. Gul) 48'
V. Froholdt 66'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 78% win probability (draw 13%, Tondela 7%). The final result was FC Porto 2–0 Tondela. In 1 previous meetings, FC Porto have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Tondela.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
5
8
Shots on target
3
2.95
Actual xG
0.11
3
Saves
6
60%
Possession
40%
8
Corners
3
15
Tackles
24
4
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
J. Kiwior
19'
D. Costa
20'
R. Mora
35'
⚽A. Varela (missed pen.)
39'
45'+3
J. Hodge
↕ J. Kiwior / P. Rosario
46'
↕ R. Mora / G. Veiga
46'
⚽G. Veiga · ast. D. Gul
48'
51'
C. Marques
↕ Zaidu / Thiago Silva
63'
63'
S. Sithole / M. Ouattara ↕
64'
M. Aiko / J. Hodge ↕
⚽V. Froholdt
66'
↕ O. Pietuszewski / William Gomes
70'
70'
A. van der Heide / Pedro Maranhao ↕
70'
J. Afonso / B. Medina ↕
78'
H. Felix / Rony Lopes ↕
80'
S. Sithole
A. Costa
85'
↕ D. Gul / S. Fofana
88'
90'+3
R. Conceicao
G. Veiga
90'
90'
H. Felix
Pre-match prediction
78.9%
FC ←
13.61%
X
7.49%
Tondela
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Porto) 78.9% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
2.70
2.95
+0.25
Tondela
0.71
0.11
-0.6
FC Porto dominated by xG (2.95 vs 0.11). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Lineups
FC Porto FC Porto 4-3-3
99 Diogo Costa Diogo Costa G 6.90
12
Zaidu 62' D 6.90
4 Jakub Kiwior Jakub Kiwior 45' D 6.20
5 J. Bednarek J. Bednarek D 7.90
20 Alberto Baio Alberto Baio D 6.90
86 Rodrigo Mora Rodrigo Mora 45' M 7.20
22 A. Varela A. Varela M 6.30
8 Victor Mow Froholdt Victor Mow Froholdt 1 ⚽ M 7.20
77 Oskar Pietuszewski Oskar Pietuszewski 70' F 6.20
27 Deniz Gül Deniz Gül 1 👟 88' F 7.00
11 Pepê Aquino Pepê Aquino F 7.60
Bench
17 Borja Sainz Borja Sainz F
74 Francisco Moura Francisco Moura D
10 Gabri Veiga Gabri Veiga 1 ⚽ 45' M 8.60
13 Pablo Rosario Pablo Rosario 45' M 7.00
42 Seko Fofana Seko Fofana 8' M 6.60
29 Terem Moffi Terem Moffi F
3 Thiago Silva Thiago Silva 28' D 6.60
7 William William 20' F 7.70
Tondela Tondela 5-4-1
31
G 7.60
27 Rodrigo Conceição Rodrigo Conceição D 6.00
20 B. Medina B. Medina 70' D 6.30
4 Christian Marques Christian Marques D 7.00
44 João Silva João Silva D 7.30
48 Tiago Manso Tiago Manso D 6.30
70
63' M 5.60
32
M 6.50
10 Joe Hodge Joe Hodge 63' M 6.50
7 Maranhão Maranhão 70' M 6.50
16 Rony Lopes Rony Lopes 78' F 7.20
Bench
26 Arjen Van Der Heide Arjen Van Der Heide 20' F 6.30
2 Bebeto Bebeto D
60
E. Maviram D
8 Hélder Tavares Hélder Tavares M
79 Hugo Félix Hugo Félix 12' M 6.70
30
L. Canizares G
90 Makan Aïko Makan Aïko 27' F 6.30
15 Siphephelo Sithole Siphephelo Sithole 27' M 6.30
Best on the pitch
Gabri Veiga
Gabri Veiga
M · FC
8.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 25 pass
J. Bednarek
J. Bednarek
D · FC
7.90
1 shots · 103 pass
William
William
F · FC
7.70
· 7 pass
Pepê Aquino
Pepê Aquino
F · FC
7.60
· 40 pass
G · Tondela
7.60
· 35 pass
João Silva
João Silva
D · Tondela
7.30
· 54 pass
FC Porto FC Porto — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Diogo Costa G 90 6.90 — — — 21 15% — — —
Zaidu D 62 6.90 — — — 30 28% — — —
Jakub Kiwior D 45 6.20 — — 2 32 30% — 1 —
J. Bednarek D 90 7.90 — — 1 103 96% — — —
Alberto Baio D 90 6.90 — — 1 45 36% 2 1 —
Rodrigo Mora M 45 7.20 — — — 20 15% — 1 —
A. Varela M 90 6.30 — — 3 34 33% — — —
Victor Mow Froholdt M 90 7.20 1 — 4 43 38% 1 — —
Oskar Pietuszewski F 70 6.20 — — 2 15 11% 1 — —
Deniz Gül F 88 7.00 — 1 1 17 11% — — —
Pepê Aquino F 90 7.60 — — — 40 36% 9 — —
Gabri Veiga M 45 8.60 1 — 1 25 21% 1 1 —
Pablo Rosario M 45 7.00 — — — 41 39% — — —
Seko Fofana M 8 6.60 — — — 6 5% — — —
Thiago Silva D 28 6.60 — — — 28 27% — — —
William F 20 7.70 — — — 7 4% 1 — —
Tondela Tondela — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.60 — — — 35 10% 1 — —
Rodrigo Conceição D 90 6.00 — — — 23 20% 1 1 —
B. Medina D 70 6.30 — — — 21 19% 2 — —
Christian Marques D 90 7.00 — — — 36 32% 4 1 —
João Silva D 90 7.30 — — — 54 49% 6 — —
Tiago Manso D 90 6.30 — — 1 29 23% 3 — —
M 63 5.60 — — — 14 12% — — —
M 90 6.50 — — 1 28 25% 2 — —
Joe Hodge M 63 6.50 — — 1 32 30% 2 1 —
Maranhão M 70 6.50 — — — 12 6% — — —
Rony Lopes F 78 7.20 — — 1 18 15% 3 — —
Arjen Van Der Heide F 20 6.30 — — — 3 3% — — —
Hugo Félix M 12 6.70 — — 1 10 8% — 1 —
Makan Aïko F 27 6.30 — — — 5 4% — — —
Siphephelo Sithole M 27 6.30 — — — 15 14% — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Porto vs Tondela?
The final score was FC Porto 2–0 Tondela.
What did the model predict before FC Porto vs Tondela?
The model assigned 78% probability to a FC Porto win, 13% to a draw, and 7% to an Tondela win.