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Juventud - Progreso

Primera División May 16, 2026 20:00
Juventud
#5 · 0 pts
vs
Progreso
#2 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
57.71%
Win
Juventud
25.02%
Draw
17.27%
Win
Progreso
1.49
Expected xG
0.63
Model prediction
Juventud
57.71%
Probability
63.6%
1X2 accuracy · 11 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Juventud a 57% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Progreso. Expected goals are 1.5 for Juventud and 0.6 for Progreso (total 2.1), with a 68% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 18.0% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Juventud have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Progreso.

Score Matrix
↕ Juventud Progreso →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.0% 7.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% —
1 18.0% 11.2% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% —
2 13.4% 8.4% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% —
3 6.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% — —
4 2.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% — —
5 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% — — —
Recent form
Juventud Juventud
W Defensor Sporting 1–2
W Wanderers 2–1
D Liverpool Montevideo 1–1
D Penarol 2–2
W Progreso 1–0
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 23%
Progreso Progreso
L Atletico Torque 2–1
L Cerro Largo 0–1
L Defensor Sporting 1–0
W Wanderers 2–1
L Juventud 1–0
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 20%
Playing profile
Juventud Juventud
Attack
33
Defence
69
Form
51
Progreso Progreso
Attack
21
Defence
63
Form
36
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
Juventud
0
Draw
0
Progreso
W 12 Apr 2026 Primera División 1–0
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 15 31
1 Club Nacional Club Nacional 0 0
1 Cerro Cerro 0 0
2 Progreso Progreso 0 0
2 Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 0 0
2 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 15 29
3 Albion FC Albion FC 15 28
3 Central Espanol Central Espanol 0 0
3 Danubio Danubio 0 0
4 Penarol Penarol 15 27
4 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0 0
4 Wanderers Wanderers 0 0
5 Central Espanol Central Espanol 15 24
5 Penarol Penarol 0 0
5 Juventud Juventud 0 0
6 Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 0 0
6 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 0 0
6 Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 15 23
7 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0 0
7 Club Nacional Club Nacional 15 22
7 Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 0 0
8 Albion FC Albion FC 0 0
8 Boston River Boston River 0 0
8 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 15 21
9 Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 15 20
10 Wanderers Wanderers 15 20
11 Danubio Danubio 15 18
12 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 15 17
13 Boston River Boston River 15 17
14 Juventud Juventud 15 15
15 Progreso Progreso 15 10
16 Cerro Cerro 15 10
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Juventud vs Progreso?
The model gives Juventud a 57% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 17% for an Progreso win.
How many goals are expected in Juventud vs Progreso?
Expected goals: Juventud 1.5, Progreso 0.6 (total 2.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 68%.
What is the most likely score in Juventud vs Progreso?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 18.0%.