Champions League · Round of 16 March 17, 2026 21:00

Manchester City

#8 · 16 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Real Madrid

#9 · 15 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 46% win probability (draw 21%, Manchester City 31%). The final result was Manchester City 1–2 Real Madrid. In 2 previous meetings, Manchester City have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Real Madrid.

Match statistics

8

Shots on target

7

1.91

Actual xG

2.93

47%

Possession

53%

9

Corners

6

Pre-match prediction

31.58%

Manchester

21.72%

X

46.7%

Real ←

we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid) 46.7% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Manchester

0.53

1.91

+1.38

Real

1.92

2.93

+1.01

Real Madrid dominated by xG (2.93 vs 1.91). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Arsenal	8	24
2	Bayern München	8	21
3	Liverpool	8	18
4	Tottenham	8	17
5	Barcelona	8	16
6	Chelsea	8	16
7	Sporting CP	8	16
8	Manchester City	8	16
9	Real Madrid	8	15
10	Inter	8	15
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	14
12	Newcastle	8	14
13	Juventus	8	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13
15	Atalanta	8	13
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10
20	Galatasaray	8	10
21	Monaco	8	10
22	Qarabag	8	10
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9
24	Benfica	8	9
25	Marseille	8	9
26	Pafos	8	9
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8
29	Athletic Club	8	8
30	Napoli	8	8
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8
32	Ajax	8	6
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4
34	Slavia Praha	8	3
35	Villarreal	8	1
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1