← Premier League

Mara Sugar - Mathare United

Premier League May 16, 2026 13:00
Mara Sugar
#8 · 43 pts
vs
Mathare United
#14 · 35 pts
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky 32.7°C 💨 12 km/h · Novo Mesto
⚡ Pre-match analysis
33.93%
Win
Mara Sugar
31.98%
Draw
34.09%
Win
Mathare United
0.9
Expected xG
1.0

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mathare United a 34% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Mara Sugar. Expected goals are 0.9 for Mara Sugar and 1.0 for Mathare United (total 1.9), with a 57% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 14.9% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Mara Sugar have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Mathare United.

Score Matrix
↕ Mara Sugar Mathare United →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.9% 14.9% 7.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.4% 13.5% 6.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 6.1% 6.1% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% —
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% — —
5 0.1% 0.1% — — — —
Recent form
Mara Sugar Mara Sugar
W Shabana 1–0
L AFC Leopards 2–1
W Tusker 0–1
W Kariobangi Sharks 0–1
W Posta Rangers FC 1–0
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 39%
Mathare United Mathare United
L APS Bomet 0–2
D Sofapaka 2–2
L Nairobi United 1–2
W Bidco United 3–0
D Police 0–0
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 14%
Playing profile
Mara Sugar Mara Sugar
Attack
20
Defence
87
Form
57
Mathare United Mathare United
Attack
33
Defence
65
Form
40
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
Mara Sugar
0
Draw
0
Mathare United
W 8 Dec 2025 Premier League 1–0
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 GOR Mahia GOR Mahia 31 65
2 AFC Leopards AFC Leopards 31 61
3 Police Police 31 52
4 Nairobi United Nairobi United 31 48
5 Shabana Shabana 31 48
6 Homeboyz Homeboyz 31 47
7 Tusker Tusker 31 44
8 Mara Sugar Mara Sugar 31 43
9 KCB KCB 31 42
10 Bandari Bandari 31 41
11 Murang'a SEAL Murang'a SEAL 31 41
12 APS Bomet APS Bomet 31 37
13 Posta Rangers FC Posta Rangers FC 31 36
14 Mathare United Mathare United 31 35
15 Kariobangi Sharks Kariobangi Sharks 31 33
16 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars 31 32
17 Bidco United Bidco United 31 24
18 Sofapaka Sofapaka 31 18
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Mara Sugar vs Mathare United?
The model gives Mara Sugar a 33% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 34% for an Mathare United win.
How many goals are expected in Mara Sugar vs Mathare United?
Expected goals: Mara Sugar 0.9, Mathare United 1.0 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 57%.
What is the most likely score in Mara Sugar vs Mathare United?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.9%.