Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 1
April 09, 2026 00:00
João Victor
(ast. Reinaldo)
60'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mirassol a 38% win probability (draw 31%, Lanus 30%). The final result was Mirassol 1–0 Lanus.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
4
3
Shots on target
2
0.47
Actual xG
0.34
2
Saves
2
45%
Possession
55%
5
Corners
8
21
Tackles
23
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
José Aldo
2'
Lucas Oliveira
20'
49'
52'
Matías Sepúlveda
⚽João Victor
· ast. Reinaldo
60'
José Aldo
/ Gabriel Pires
62'
Edson Carioca
/ Alesson
68'
Eduardo
/ Shaylon
69'
69'
Lucas Besozzi
/
Matías Sepúlveda
69'
Yoshan Valois
/
Franco Watson
Alesson
71'
Neto Moura
/ Denilson
77'
André Luis
/ Nathan Fogaça
77'
77'
Felipe Peña Biafore
/
Agustín Cardozo
77'
Walter Bou
/
Eduardo Salvio
82'
Ronaldo de Jesus Lopez
/
José Canale
89'
Tomás Guidara
Pre-match prediction
38.5%
Mirassol ←
31.41%
X
30.08%
Lanus
we assigned to the actual result (Mirassol)
38.5%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.19
0.47
-0.72
0.79
0.34
-0.45
xG dominance was balanced (0.47 – 0.34).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Walter
G
Walter
G
6
Reinaldo
1 👟
D
Reinaldo
1 👟
D
2
Lucas Oliveira
D
Lucas Oliveira
D
34
João Victor
1 ⚽
D
João Victor
1 ⚽
D
32
Igor Formiga
D
Igor Formiga
D
21
José Aldo
62'
M
José Aldo
62'
M
25
Neto Moura
77'
M
95
Edson Carioca
68'
M
33
Eduardo
69'
M
Eduardo
69'
M
11
Negueba
M
99
André Luis
77'
F
André Luis
77'
F
Bench
77
Alesson
30'
F
Alesson
30'
F
23
Alex Muralha
G
Alex Muralha
G
8
Denilson
21'
M
Denilson
21'
M
17
Everton Galdino
F
Everton Galdino
F
26
Lucas Mugni
M
9
Nathan Fogaça
21'
F
Nathan Fogaça
21'
F
7
Shaylon
29'
M
Shaylon
29'
M
12
Victor Luis
D
Victor Luis
D
26
G
6
Sasha Marcich
D
Sasha Marcich
D
13
José Canale
82'
D
José Canale
82'
D
24
Carlos Izquierdoz
D
Carlos Izquierdoz
D
33
Tomás Guidara
89'
D
Tomás Guidara
89'
D
17
Agustín Medina
M
Agustín Medina
M
30
Agustín Cardozo
77'
M
Agustín Cardozo
77'
M
16
Matías Sepúlveda
69'
M
Matías Sepúlveda
69'
M
8
Franco Watson
69'
M
Franco Watson
69'
M
11
Eduardo Salvio
77'
M
Eduardo Salvio
77'
M
23
R. Carrera
F
R. Carrera
F
Bench
27
Facundo Sánchez
D
Facundo Sánchez
D
5
Felipe Peña Biafore
21'
M
Felipe Peña Biafore
21'
M
4
Gonzalo Perez
D
Gonzalo Perez
D
77
Lucas Besozzi
29'
F
Lucas Besozzi
29'
F
35
Ronaldo De Jesus
16'
D
Ronaldo De Jesus
16'
D
9
Walter Bou
21'
F
Walter Bou
21'
F
19
Yoshan Valois
29'
F
Yoshan Valois
29'
F
Best on the pitch
João Victor
D · Mirassol
8.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 46 pass
Negueba
M · Mirassol
7.90
1 shots
· 20 pass
Reinaldo
D · Mirassol
7.70
1 👟
2 shots
· 33 pass
Igor Formiga
D · Mirassol
7.30
· 22 pass
Tomás Guidara
D · Lanus
7.20
· 40 pass
Lucas Oliveira
D · Mirassol
7.20
· 45 pass
Mirassol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walter | G | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Reinaldo | D | 98 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 2 | 33 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| Lucas Oliveira | D | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 37% | 4 | 1 | — |
| João Victor | D | 98 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 46 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Igor Formiga | D | 98 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | 3 | — | — |
| José Aldo | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Neto Moura | M | 77 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Edson Carioca | M | 68 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Eduardo | M | 69 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Negueba | M | 98 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| André Luis | F | 77 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Alesson | F | 30 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Denilson | M | 21 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| Nathan Fogaça | F | 21 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Shaylon | M | 29 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
Lanus — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 98 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| Sasha Marcich | D | 98 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 39 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| José Canale | D | 82 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Izquierdoz | D | 98 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 53 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Tomás Guidara | D | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 32% | 7 | — | 1 |
| Agustín Medina | M | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 60 | 50% | 1 | — | — |
| Agustín Cardozo | M | 77 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| Matías Sepúlveda | M | 69 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 13% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Franco Watson | M | 69 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Eduardo Salvio | M | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Carrera | F | 98 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Felipe Peña Biafore | M | 21 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Besozzi | F | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Ronaldo De Jesus | D | 16 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Walter Bou | F | 21 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Yoshan Valois | F | 29 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mirassol vs Lanus?
The final score was Mirassol 1–0 Lanus.
What did the model predict before Mirassol vs Lanus?
The model assigned 38% probability to a Mirassol win, 31% to a draw, and 30% to an Lanus win.