Super League
· Championship Group - 1
April 05, 2026 22:00
5'
A. Koita
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Olympiakos Piraeus a 46% win probability (draw 22%, AEK Athens FC 30%). The final result was Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 AEK Athens FC. In 2 previous meetings, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for AEK Athens FC.
Match statistics
3
Total shots
4
1
Shots on target
1
0.22
Actual xG
0.32
62%
Possession
38%
5
Corners
3
15
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
5'
A. Koita⚽
31'
Roberto Pereyra
Dani García
34'
D. Garcia
/ C. Mouzakitis
58'
D. Podence
/ Chiquinho
59'
64'
P. Mantalos
/
R. Pereyra
64'
M. Gacinovic
/
L. Jovic
67'
James Penrice
G. Martins
/ Y. Yazici
71'
M. Taremi
/ Clayton
71'
80'
Joao Mario
/
A. Koita
80'
Zini
/
B. Varga
S. Hezze
/ D. Nascimento
83'
90'+10
Pre-match prediction
46.84%
Olympiakos
22.62%
X
30.54%
AEK ←
we assigned to the actual result (AEK Athens FC)
30.54%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.13
0.22
-1.91
1.63
0.32
-1.31
xG dominance was balanced (0.22 – 0.32).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
88
Konstantinos Tzolakis
G
Konstantinos Tzolakis
G
70
D
5
Lorenzo Pirola
D
Lorenzo Pirola
D
45
Panagiotis Retsos
D
Panagiotis Retsos
D
23
Rodinei
D
Rodinei
D
14
Dani García
58'
M
Dani García
58'
M
32
Santiago Hezze
83'
M
Santiago Hezze
83'
M
56
Daniel Podence
58'
M
Daniel Podence
58'
M
99
Mehdi Taremi
71'
M
Mehdi Taremi
71'
M
10
Gelson Martins
71'
M
Gelson Martins
71'
M
9
Ayoub El Kaabi
F
Ayoub El Kaabi
F
Bench
22
Chiquinho
32'
M
Chiquinho
32'
M
96
Christos Mouzakitis
32'
M
Christos Mouzakitis
32'
M
20
Costinha
D
Costinha
D
1
G
29
James Penrice
D
James Penrice
D
44
Filipe Relvas
D
Filipe Relvas
D
2
D
12
L. Rota
D
L. Rota
D
18
R. Marin
M
R. Marin
M
13
Orbelín Pineda
M
Orbelín Pineda
M
37
Roberto Pereyra
65'
M
Roberto Pereyra
65'
M
11
Aboubakary Koita
1 ⚽
81'
M
Aboubakary Koita
1 ⚽
81'
M
9
Luka Jović
64'
F
Luka Jović
64'
F
25
Barnabás Varga
81'
F
Barnabás Varga
81'
F
Bench
7
Dereck Kutesa
M
Dereck Kutesa
M
21
Domagoj Vida
D
Domagoj Vida
D
10
João Mário
9'
M
João Mário
9'
M
15
Martin Georgiev
D
Martin Georgiev
D
8
M. Gacinovic
26'
M
20
Petros Mantalos
25'
M
Petros Mantalos
25'
M
90
Zini
9'
F
Zini
9'
F
Best on the pitch
Rodinei
D · Olympiakos
7.90
· 53 pass
Aboubakary Koita
M · AEK
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 12 pass
Filipe Relvas
D · AEK
7.70
· 25 pass
Barnabás Varga
F · AEK
7.20
· 32 pass
Lorenzo Pirola
D · Olympiakos
7.20
· 59 pass
L. Rota
D · AEK
7.00
· 31 pass
Olympiakos Piraeus — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Tzolakis | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 46 | 26% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 52 | 41% | 1 | — | — | |
| Lorenzo Pirola | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 59 | 48% | 2 | — | — |
| Panagiotis Retsos | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 55 | 46% | — | — | — |
| Rodinei | D | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 53 | 41% | 3 | — | — |
| Dani García | M | 58 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 40 | 28% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Santiago Hezze | M | 83 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 50 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| Daniel Podence | M | 58 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Mehdi Taremi | M | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Gelson Martins | M | 71 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Ayoub El Kaabi | F | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Chiquinho | M | 32 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Christos Mouzakitis | M | 32 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
AEK Athens FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 31 | 13% | — | — | — | |
| James Penrice | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 16% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Filipe Relvas | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | — | — | — | |
| L. Rota | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 31 | 19% | 6 | — | — |
| R. Marin | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Orbelín Pineda | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 40 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Roberto Pereyra | M | 65 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Aboubakary Koita | M | 81 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 12 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Luka Jović | F | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Barnabás Varga | F | 81 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 9% | — | — | — |
| João Mário | M | 9 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| M. Gacinovic | M | 26 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Petros Mantalos | M | 25 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Zini | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
The final score was Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 AEK Athens FC.
What did the model predict before Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Olympiakos Piraeus win, 22% to a draw, and 30% to an AEK Athens FC win.