Riga - FS Jelgava
Virsliga
May 16, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
79.52%
Win
Riga
10.95%
Draw
9.52%
Win
FS Jelgava
3.95
0.53
Expected xG
Model prediction
Riga
79.52%
Probability
85.7%
1X2 accuracy · 14 predictions (3 months)
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Riga a 79% win probability, against 10% for a draw and 9% for FS Jelgava. Expected goals are 4.0 for Riga and 0.5 for FS Jelgava (total 4.5), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–0 at 11.7% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Riga have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for FS Jelgava.
Score Matrix
↕ Riga
FS Jelgava →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 1 | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 2 | 8.9% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 3 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 4 | 11.6% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 5 | 9.1% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Riga
Attack
78
Defence
72
Form
75
FS Jelgava
Attack
16
Defence
69
Form
37
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
0
Draw
0
W
4 Apr 2026
8–0
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rīgas FS
|
12 | 31 |
| 2 |
Riga
|
12 | 29 |
| 3 |
Auda
|
12 | 25 |
| 4 |
FK Liepaja
|
12 | 15 |
| 5 |
Super Nova
|
12 | 14 |
| 6 |
BFC Daugavpils
|
12 | 14 |
| 7 |
Tukums
|
12 | 12 |
| 8 |
FS Jelgava
|
12 | 12 |
| 9 |
Grobiņa
|
12 | 11 |
| 10 |
Ogre United
|
12 | 3 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Riga vs FS Jelgava?
The model gives Riga a 79% win probability, 10% for a draw, and 9% for an FS Jelgava win.
How many goals are expected in Riga vs FS Jelgava?
Expected goals: Riga 4.0, FS Jelgava 0.5 (total 4.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Riga vs FS Jelgava?
3–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.7%.