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Sagan Tosu - Renofa Yamaguchi

J2 League May 16, 2026 07:00
Sagan Tosu
#2 · 30 pts
vs
Renofa Yamaguchi
#4 · 26 pts
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky 17.7°C 💨 3 km/h · Tosu
⚡ Pre-match analysis
54.45%
Win
Sagan Tosu
21.44%
Draw
24.11%
Win
Renofa Yamaguchi
2.03
Expected xG
1.26

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Sagan Tosu a 54% win probability, against 21% for a draw and 24% for Renofa Yamaguchi. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sagan Tosu and 1.3 for Renofa Yamaguchi (total 3.3), with a 71% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.7% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Sagan Tosu have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Renofa Yamaguchi.

Score Matrix
↕ Sagan Tosu Renofa Yamaguchi →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.8% 4.7% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 7.6% 9.6% 6.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.7% 9.7% 6.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.2% 6.5% 4.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
4 2.6% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
5 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% —
Recent form
Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu
W Oita Trinita 0–1
W Gainare Tottori 4–0
D Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1–1
D Kagoshima United 1–1
W Biwako Shiga 2–0
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 36%
Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi
L Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0–1
W Biwako Shiga 1–4
L Gainare Tottori 4–1
W FC Ryukyu 2–0
D Kitakyushu 2–2
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 12%
Playing profile
Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu
Attack
38
Defence
91
Form
66
Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi
Attack
41
Defence
60
Form
53
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Sagan Tosu
0
Draw
1
Renofa Yamaguchi
L 7 Mar 2026 J2 League 0–2
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Kataller Toyama Kataller Toyama 16 37
1 Ventforet Kofu Ventforet Kofu 16 32
1 Tegevajaro Miyazaki Tegevajaro Miyazaki 16 43
1 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai 16 40
2 Kochi United Kochi United 16 30
2 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 16 31
2 Iwaki Iwaki 16 28
2 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 16 30
3 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 16 28
3 Blaublitz Akita Blaublitz Akita 16 29
3 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 16 27
3 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 16 29
4 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 16 26
4 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 16 27
4 Sagamihara Sagamihara 16 27
4 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 16 28
5 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 16 25
5 Fujieda MYFC Fujieda MYFC 16 26
5 Yokohama FC Yokohama FC 16 23
5 Ehime FC Ehime FC 16 25
6 Thespakusatsu Gunma Thespakusatsu Gunma 16 20
6 FC Gifu FC Gifu 16 27
6 Kanazawa Kanazawa 16 22
6 Gainare Tottori Gainare Tottori 16 22
7 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 16 23
7 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 16 21
7 Imabari Imabari 16 19
7 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 16 19
8 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 16 17
8 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 16 22
8 Nara Club Nara Club 16 18
8 Biwako Shiga Biwako Shiga 16 16
9 Osaka Osaka 16 17
9 Fukushima United Fukushima United 16 16
9 Tochigi City Tochigi City 16 18
9 Kitakyushu Kitakyushu 16 15
10 Kamatamare Sanuki Kamatamare Sanuki 16 15
10 Parceiro Nagano Parceiro Nagano 16 11
10 FC Ryukyu FC Ryukyu 16 15
10 Vanraure Hachinohe Vanraure Hachinohe 16 16
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
The model gives Sagan Tosu a 54% win probability, 21% for a draw, and 24% for an Renofa Yamaguchi win.
How many goals are expected in Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Expected goals: Sagan Tosu 2.0, Renofa Yamaguchi 1.3 (total 3.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 71%.
What is the most likely score in Sagan Tosu vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.7%.