← Bundesliga
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 17:30
1. FC Köln
#14 · 32 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Werder Bremen
#15 · 32 pts
S. El Mala 7' (pen.)
R. Ache 65'
M. Backhaus 90' (og)
(pen.) 75' R. Schmid

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave 1. FC Köln a 42% win probability (draw 27%, Werder Bremen 30%). The final result was 1. FC Köln 3–1 Werder Bremen. In 1 previous meetings, 1. FC Köln have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Werder Bremen.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
5
9
Shots on target
2
3.47
Actual xG
0.92
1
Saves
6
58%
Possession
42%
8
Corners
5
4
Tackles
17
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽S. El Mala (pen.)
7'
24'
Marco Friedl
↕ K. Lund / A. Castro-Montes
46'
46'
K. Coulibaly / Y. Sugawara ↕
46'
S. Musah / M. Grull ↕
49'
⚽R. Ache
65'
↕ S. El Mala / L. Maina
67'
↕ J. Thielmann / M. Bulter
67'
Ragnar Ache
71'
74'
75'
(pen.) R. Schmid⚽
↕ R. Ache / L. Waldschmidt
76'
78'
Leonardo Bittencourt
79'
I. Schmidt / F. Agu ↕
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
83'
84'
J. Milosevic / L. Bittencourt ↕
↕ S. Sebulonsen / T. Krauss
86'
Eric Martel
90'+1
90'
Amos Pieper
⚽M. Backhaus (og)
90'
Pre-match prediction
42.32%
1. ←
27.1%
X
30.58%
Werder
we assigned to the actual result (1. FC Köln) 42.32% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.
1.24
3.47
+2.24
Werder
1.29
0.92
-0.37
1. FC Köln dominated by xG (3.47 vs 0.92). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Lineups
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 4-4-2
1 Marvin Schwäbe Marvin Schwäbe G 6.90
32 Kristoffer Lund Kristoffer Lund 45' D 7.20
39
D 7.00
22
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 7.50
28 Sebastian Sebulonsen Sebastian Sebulonsen 86' D 6.70
16 Jakub Kamiński Jakub Kamiński M 7.70
6
E. Martel M 7.00
18 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson M 7.90
29 Jan Uwe Thielmann Jan Uwe Thielmann 67' M 6.90
13 Said El Mala Said El Mala 1 ⚽ 67' F 6.60
9 R. Ache R. Ache 1 ⚽ 76' F 6.30
Bench
17 Alessio Castro-Montes Alessio Castro-Montes 45' M 6.70
8 Denis Huseinbašić Denis Huseinbašić M
37 Linton Maina Linton Maina 23' M 7.20
7 Luca Waldschmidt Luca Waldschmidt 14' F 6.90
30 Marius Bülter Marius Bülter 23' F 6.90
5 Tom Krauß Tom Krauß 13' M 6.30
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
30
M. Backhaus 1 ⚽ G 7.60
2
O. Deman D 6.90
32
Marco Friedl 24' D 4.20
5
Amos Pieper D 7.30
3
Y. Sugawara 45' D 6.70
10
L. Bittencourt 84' M 6.70
14
M 6.90
27
F. Agu 78' M 6.90
20
R. Schmid 1 ⚽ M 7.30
17
M. Grull 45' M 6.30
11
J. Njinmah F 7.00
Bench
23
I. Schmidt 12' D 6.20
19 J. Milošević J. Milošević 15' F 6.50
31
K. Coulibaly 45' D 6.20
4
N. Stark D
29
S. Musah 45' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
M · 1.
7.90
3 shots · 47 pass
Jakub Kamiński
Jakub Kamiński
M · 1.
7.70
1 shots · 50 pass
M. Backhaus
G · Werder
7.60
1 ⚽
· 33 pass
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
D · 1.
7.50
· 67 pass
R. Schmid
M · Werder
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 47 pass
Amos Pieper
D · Werder
7.30
· 47 pass
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Marvin Schwäbe G 90 6.90 — — — 23 18% — — —
Kristoffer Lund D 45 7.20 — — — 30 27% — — —
D 90 7.00 — — 2 77 74% — — —
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 90 7.50 — — — 67 63% 1 1 —
Sebastian Sebulonsen D 86 6.70 — — — 38 33% 1 — —
Jakub Kamiński M 90 7.70 — — 1 50 41% — — —
E. Martel M 90 7.00 — — 1 61 58% 1 1 —
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson M 90 7.90 — — 3 47 38% — — —
Jan Uwe Thielmann M 67 6.90 — — — 26 23% 1 — —
Said El Mala F 67 6.60 1 — 1 13 10% — — —
R. Ache F 76 6.30 1 — 4 7 6% — 1 —
Alessio Castro-Montes M 45 6.70 — — — 27 23% — — —
Linton Maina M 23 7.20 — — — 12 10% — — —
Luca Waldschmidt F 14 6.90 — — 2 5 5% — — —
Marius Bülter F 23 6.90 — — 1 8 6% — — —
Tom Krauß M 13 6.30 — — — — — — — —
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Backhaus G 90 7.60 1 — — 33 22% — — —
O. Deman D 90 6.90 — — — 32 28% 1 — —
Marco Friedl D 24 4.20 — — — 20 17% 1 — 1
Amos Pieper D 90 7.30 — — — 47 37% 3 1 —
Y. Sugawara D 45 6.70 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
L. Bittencourt M 84 6.70 — — — 38 31% 3 1 —
M 90 6.90 — — 2 39 35% 1 — —
F. Agu M 78 6.90 — — — 18 15% 2 — —
R. Schmid M 90 7.30 1 — 1 47 36% — — —
M. Grull M 45 6.30 — — 1 11 7% 1 — —
J. Njinmah F 90 7.00 — — — 12 10% 2 — —
I. Schmidt D 12 6.20 — — — 6 3% — — —
J. Milošević F 15 6.50 — — 1 2 — — — —
K. Coulibaly D 45 6.20 — — — 20 20% 1 — —
S. Musah F 45 6.50 — — — 11 9% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
The final score was 1. FC Köln 3–1 Werder Bremen.
What did the model predict before 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
The model assigned 42% probability to a 1. FC Köln win, 27% to a draw, and 30% to an Werder Bremen win.