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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 15:30
1. FC Köln
#11 · 4 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Werder Bremen
#9 · 4 pts
S. El Mala 7' (pen.)
R. Ache 65'
M. Backhaus 90' (og)
(pen.) 75' R. Schmid
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave 1. FC Köln a 42% win probability (draw 27%, Werder Bremen 30%). The final result was 1. FC Köln 3–1 Werder Bremen. In 2 previous meetings, 1. FC Köln have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Werder Bremen.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
5
9
Shots on target
2
3.47
Actual xG
0.92
1
Saves
6
58%
Possession
42%
8
Corners
5
4
Tackles
17
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽S. El Mala (pen.)
7'
24'
Marco Friedl
↕ K. Lund / A. Castro-Montes
46'
46'
K. Coulibaly / Y. Sugawara ↕
46'
S. Musah / M. Grull ↕
49'
⚽R. Ache
65'
↕ S. El Mala / L. Maina
67'
↕ J. Thielmann / M. Bulter
67'
Ragnar Ache
71'
74'
75'
(pen.) R. Schmid⚽
↕ R. Ache / L. Waldschmidt
76'
78'
Leonardo Bittencourt
79'
I. Schmidt / F. Agu ↕
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
83'
84'
J. Milosevic / L. Bittencourt ↕
↕ S. Sebulonsen / T. Krauss
86'
Eric Martel
90'+1
90'
Amos Pieper
⚽M. Backhaus (og)
90'
Pre-match prediction
42.32%
1. ←
27.1%
X
30.58%
Werder
we assigned to the actual result (1. FC Köln) 42.32% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.
1.24
3.47
+2.24
Werder
1.29
0.92
-0.37
1. FC Köln dominated by xG (3.47 vs 0.92). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3 9
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3 9
3 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 3 7
4 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 2 6
5 Bayern München Bayern München 2 4
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3 4
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3 4
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 3 4
9 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 3 4
10 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 3 4
11 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 3 4
12 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2 3
13 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 3 3
14 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 3 3
15 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 3 1
16 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3 1
17 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 2 0
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 0
Lineups
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 4-4-2
1 M. Schwäbe M. Schwäbe G 6.90
32 K. Lund K. Lund 45' D 7.20
39
D 7.00
22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 7.50
28 S. Sebulonsen S. Sebulonsen 86' D 6.70
16 J. Kamiński J. Kamiński M 7.70
6 E. Martel E. Martel M 7.00
18 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson M 7.90
29 J. Thielmann J. Thielmann 67' M 6.90
13 S. El Mala S. El Mala 1 ⚽ 67' F 6.60
9 R. Ache R. Ache 1 ⚽ 76' F 6.30
Bench
17 A. Castro-Montes A. Castro-Montes 45' M 6.70
8 Denis Huseinbašić Denis Huseinbašić M
37 L. Maina L. Maina 23' M 7.20
7 Luca Waldschmidt Luca Waldschmidt 14' F 6.90
30 M. Bülter M. Bülter 23' F 6.90
5 T. Krauß T. Krauß 13' M 6.30
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
30 M. Backhaus M. Backhaus 1 ⚽ G 7.60
2 O. Deman O. Deman D 6.90
32 M. Friedl M. Friedl 24' D 4.20
5 A. Pieper A. Pieper D 7.30
3 Yukinari Sugawara Yukinari Sugawara 45' D 6.70
10 L. Bittencourt L. Bittencourt 84' M 6.70
14
M 6.90
27 Felix Agu Felix Agu 78' M 6.90
20 Romano Schmid Romano Schmid 1 ⚽ M 7.30
17 M. Grüll M. Grüll 45' M 6.30
11 Justin Njinmah Justin Njinmah F 7.00
Bench
31 Abdoul Karim Coulibaly Abdoul Karim Coulibaly 45' D 6.20
23 I. Schmidt I. Schmidt 12' D 6.20
19 J. Milošević J. Milošević 15' F 6.50
4 N. Stark N. Stark D
29 Salim Musah Salim Musah 45' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
M · 1.
7.90
3 shots · 47 pass
J. Kamiński
J. Kamiński
M · 1.
7.70
1 shots · 50 pass
M. Backhaus
M. Backhaus
G · Werder
7.60
1 ⚽
· 33 pass
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
D · 1.
7.50
· 67 pass
Romano Schmid
Romano Schmid
M · Werder
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 47 pass
A. Pieper
A. Pieper
D · Werder
7.30
· 47 pass
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Schwäbe G 90 6.90 — — — 23 18% — — —
K. Lund D 45 7.20 — — — 30 27% — — —
D 90 7.00 — — 2 77 74% — — —
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 90 7.50 — — — 67 63% 1 1 —
S. Sebulonsen D 86 6.70 — — — 38 33% 1 — —
J. Kamiński M 90 7.70 — — 1 50 41% — — —
E. Martel M 90 7.00 — — 1 61 58% 1 1 —
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson M 90 7.90 — — 3 47 38% — — —
J. Thielmann M 67 6.90 — — — 26 23% 1 — —
S. El Mala F 67 6.60 1 — 1 13 10% — — —
R. Ache F 76 6.30 1 — 4 7 6% — 1 —
A. Castro-Montes M 45 6.70 — — — 27 23% — — —
L. Maina M 23 7.20 — — — 12 10% — — —
Luca Waldschmidt F 14 6.90 — — 2 5 5% — — —
M. Bülter F 23 6.90 — — 1 8 6% — — —
T. Krauß M 13 6.30 — — — — — — — —
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Backhaus G 90 7.60 1 — — 33 22% — — —
O. Deman D 90 6.90 — — — 32 28% 1 — —
M. Friedl D 24 4.20 — — — 20 17% 1 — 1
A. Pieper D 90 7.30 — — — 47 37% 3 1 —
Yukinari Sugawara D 45 6.70 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
L. Bittencourt M 84 6.70 — — — 38 31% 3 1 —
M 90 6.90 — — 2 39 35% 1 — —
Felix Agu M 78 6.90 — — — 18 15% 2 — —
Romano Schmid M 90 7.30 1 — 1 47 36% — — —
M. Grüll M 45 6.30 — — 1 11 7% 1 — —
Justin Njinmah F 90 7.00 — — — 12 10% 2 — —
Abdoul Karim Coulibaly D 45 6.20 — — — 20 20% 1 — —
I. Schmidt D 12 6.20 — — — 6 3% — — —
J. Milošević F 15 6.50 — — 1 2 — — — —
Salim Musah F 45 6.50 — — — 11 9% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
The final score was 1. FC Köln 3–1 Werder Bremen.
What did the model predict before 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
The model assigned 42% probability to a 1. FC Köln win, 27% to a draw, and 30% to an Werder Bremen win.