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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 15:30
1. FC Köln
#12 · 8 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Werder Bremen
#6 · 12 pts
S. El Mala 7' (pen.)
R. Ache 65'
M. Backhaus 90' (og)
(pen.) 75' R. Schmid
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave 1. FC Köln a 42% win probability (draw 27%, Werder Bremen 30%). The final result was 1. FC Köln 3–1 Werder Bremen. In 2 previous meetings, 1. FC Köln have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Werder Bremen.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
5
9
Shots on target
2
3.47
Actual xG
0.92
1
Saves
6
58%
Possession
42%
8
Corners
5
4
Tackles
17
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽S. El Mala (pen.)
7'
24'
Marco Friedl
↕ K. Lund / A. Castro-Montes
46'
46'
K. Coulibaly / Y. Sugawara ↕
46'
S. Musah / M. Grull ↕
49'
⚽R. Ache
65'
↕ S. El Mala / L. Maina
67'
↕ J. Thielmann / M. Bulter
67'
Ragnar Ache
71'
74'
75'
(pen.) R. Schmid⚽
↕ R. Ache / L. Waldschmidt
76'
78'
Leonardo Bittencourt
79'
I. Schmidt / F. Agu ↕
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
83'
84'
J. Milosevic / L. Bittencourt ↕
↕ S. Sebulonsen / T. Krauss
86'
Eric Martel
90'+1
90'
Amos Pieper
⚽M. Backhaus (og)
90'
Pre-match prediction
42.32%
1. ←
27.1%
X
30.58%
Werder
we assigned to the actual result (1. FC Köln) 42.32% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.
1.24
3.47
+2.24
Werder
1.29
0.92
-0.37
1. FC Köln dominated by xG (3.47 vs 0.92). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 4-4-2
1 M. Schwäbe M. Schwäbe G 6.90
32 K. Lund K. Lund 45' D 7.20
39
D 7.00
22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 7.50
28 S. Sebulonsen S. Sebulonsen 86' D 6.70
16 J. Kamiński J. Kamiński M 7.70
6 E. Martel E. Martel M 7.00
18 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson M 7.90
29 J. Thielmann J. Thielmann 67' M 6.90
13 S. El Mala S. El Mala 1 ⚽ 67' F 6.60
9 R. Ache R. Ache 1 ⚽ 76' F 6.30
Bench
17 A. Castro-Montes A. Castro-Montes 45' M 6.70
8 D. Huseinbašić D. Huseinbašić M
37 L. Maina L. Maina 23' M 7.20
7 L. Waldschmidt L. Waldschmidt 14' F 6.90
30 M. Bülter M. Bülter 23' F 6.90
5 T. Krauß T. Krauß 13' M 6.30
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
30 M. Backhaus M. Backhaus 1 ⚽ G 7.60
2 O. Deman O. Deman D 6.90
32 M. Friedl M. Friedl 24' D 4.20
5 A. Pieper A. Pieper D 7.30
3 Y. Sugawara Y. Sugawara 45' D 6.70
10 L. Bittencourt L. Bittencourt 84' M 6.70
14
M 6.90
27 Felix Agu Felix Agu 78' M 6.90
20 R. Schmid R. Schmid 1 ⚽ M 7.30
17 M. Grüll M. Grüll 45' M 6.30
11 Justin Njinmah Justin Njinmah F 7.00
Bench
31 Abdoul Karim Coulibaly Abdoul Karim Coulibaly 45' D 6.20
23 I. Schmidt I. Schmidt 12' D 6.20
19 J. Milošević J. Milošević 15' F 6.50
4 N. Stark N. Stark D
29 Salim Musah Salim Musah 45' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
M · 1.
7.90
3 shots · 47 pass
J. Kamiński
J. Kamiński
M · 1.
7.70
1 shots · 50 pass
M. Backhaus
M. Backhaus
G · Werder
7.60
1 ⚽
· 33 pass
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
D · 1.
7.50
· 67 pass
R. Schmid
R. Schmid
M · Werder
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 47 pass
A. Pieper
A. Pieper
D · Werder
7.30
· 47 pass
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Schwäbe G 90 6.90 — — — 23 18% — — —
K. Lund D 45 7.20 — — — 30 27% — — —
D 90 7.00 — — 2 77 74% — — —
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 90 7.50 — — — 67 63% 1 1 —
S. Sebulonsen D 86 6.70 — — — 38 33% 1 — —
J. Kamiński M 90 7.70 — — 1 50 41% — — —
E. Martel M 90 7.00 — — 1 61 58% 1 1 —
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson M 90 7.90 — — 3 47 38% — — —
J. Thielmann M 67 6.90 — — — 26 23% 1 — —
S. El Mala F 67 6.60 1 — 1 13 10% — — —
R. Ache F 76 6.30 1 — 4 7 6% — 1 —
A. Castro-Montes M 45 6.70 — — — 27 23% — — —
L. Maina M 23 7.20 — — — 12 10% — — —
L. Waldschmidt F 14 6.90 — — 2 5 5% — — —
M. Bülter F 23 6.90 — — 1 8 6% — — —
T. Krauß M 13 6.30 — — — — — — — —
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Backhaus G 90 7.60 1 — — 33 22% — — —
O. Deman D 90 6.90 — — — 32 28% 1 — —
M. Friedl D 24 4.20 — — — 20 17% 1 — 1
A. Pieper D 90 7.30 — — — 47 37% 3 1 —
Y. Sugawara D 45 6.70 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
L. Bittencourt M 84 6.70 — — — 38 31% 3 1 —
M 90 6.90 — — 2 39 35% 1 — —
Felix Agu M 78 6.90 — — — 18 15% 2 — —
R. Schmid M 90 7.30 1 — 1 47 36% — — —
M. Grüll M 45 6.30 — — 1 11 7% 1 — —
Justin Njinmah F 90 7.00 — — — 12 10% 2 — —
Abdoul Karim Coulibaly D 45 6.20 — — — 20 20% 1 — —
I. Schmidt D 12 6.20 — — — 6 3% — — —
J. Milošević F 15 6.50 — — 1 2 — — — —
Salim Musah F 45 6.50 — — — 11 9% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
The final score was 1. FC Köln 3–1 Werder Bremen.
What did the model predict before 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
The model assigned 42% probability to a 1. FC Köln win, 27% to a draw, and 30% to an Werder Bremen win.