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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 15:30
1. FC Köln
#14 · 0 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Werder Bremen
#15 · 0 pts
S. El Mala 7' (pen.)
R. Ache 65'
M. Backhaus 90' (og)
(pen.) 75' R. Schmid
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave 1. FC Köln a 42% win probability (draw 27%, Werder Bremen 30%). The final result was 1. FC Köln 3–1 Werder Bremen. In 1 previous meetings, 1. FC Köln have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Werder Bremen.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
5
9
Shots on target
2
3.47
Actual xG
0.92
1
Saves
6
58%
Possession
42%
8
Corners
5
4
Tackles
17
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽S. El Mala (pen.)
7'
24'
Marco Friedl
↕ K. Lund / A. Castro-Montes
46'
46'
K. Coulibaly / Y. Sugawara ↕
46'
S. Musah / M. Grull ↕
49'
⚽R. Ache
65'
↕ S. El Mala / L. Maina
67'
↕ J. Thielmann / M. Bulter
67'
Ragnar Ache
71'
74'
75'
(pen.) R. Schmid⚽
↕ R. Ache / L. Waldschmidt
76'
78'
Leonardo Bittencourt
79'
I. Schmidt / F. Agu ↕
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
83'
84'
J. Milosevic / L. Bittencourt ↕
↕ S. Sebulonsen / T. Krauss
86'
Eric Martel
90'+1
90'
Amos Pieper
⚽M. Backhaus (og)
90'
Pre-match prediction
42.32%
1. ←
27.1%
X
30.58%
Werder
we assigned to the actual result (1. FC Köln) 42.32% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.
1.24
3.47
+2.24
Werder
1.29
0.92
-0.37
1. FC Köln dominated by xG (3.47 vs 0.92). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 0 0
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0 0
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0 0
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 0 0
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0 0
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 0 0
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 0 0
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 0 0
11 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0 0
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0
13 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 0 0
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 0 0
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0 0
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 0 0
17 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 0 0
18 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 0 0
Lineups
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 4-4-2
1 Marvin Schwäbe Marvin Schwäbe G 6.90
32 Kristoffer Lund Kristoffer Lund 45' D 7.20
39
D 7.00
22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 7.50
28 Sebastian Sebulonsen Sebastian Sebulonsen 86' D 6.70
16
Jakub Kamiński M 7.70
6 E. Martel E. Martel M 7.00
18 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson M 7.90
29 Jan Uwe Thielmann Jan Uwe Thielmann 67' M 6.90
13 S. El Mala S. El Mala 1 ⚽ 67' F 6.60
9 R. Ache R. Ache 1 ⚽ 76' F 6.30
Bench
17 Alessio Castro-Montes Alessio Castro-Montes 45' M 6.70
8
Denis Huseinbašić M
37 Linton Maina Linton Maina 23' M 7.20
7 Luca Waldschmidt Luca Waldschmidt 14' F 6.90
30 Marius Bülter Marius Bülter 23' F 6.90
5 Tom Krauß Tom Krauß 13' M 6.30
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
30 Mio Backhaus Mio Backhaus 1 ⚽ G 7.60
2 Olivier Deman Olivier Deman D 6.90
32 Marco Friedl Marco Friedl 24' D 4.20
5 Amos Pieper Amos Pieper D 7.30
3 Yukinari Sugawara Yukinari Sugawara 45' D 6.70
10 L. Bittencourt L. Bittencourt 84' M 6.70
14
M 6.90
27 Felix Agu Felix Agu 78' M 6.90
20 Romano Schmid Romano Schmid 1 ⚽ M 7.30
17 Marco Grüll Marco Grüll 45' M 6.30
11 Justin Njinmah Justin Njinmah F 7.00
Bench
23 Isaac Schmidt Isaac Schmidt 12' D 6.20
19 J. Milošević J. Milošević 15' F 6.50
31 Karim Coulibaly Karim Coulibaly 45' D 6.20
4 Niklas Stark Niklas Stark D
29 Salim Musah Salim Musah 45' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
M · 1.
7.90
3 shots · 47 pass
Jakub Kamiński
M · 1.
7.70
1 shots · 50 pass
Mio Backhaus
Mio Backhaus
G · Werder
7.60
1 ⚽
· 33 pass
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
D · 1.
7.50
· 67 pass
Romano Schmid
Romano Schmid
M · Werder
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 47 pass
Amos Pieper
Amos Pieper
D · Werder
7.30
· 47 pass
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Marvin Schwäbe G 90 6.90 — — — 23 18% — — —
Kristoffer Lund D 45 7.20 — — — 30 27% — — —
D 90 7.00 — — 2 77 74% — — —
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 90 7.50 — — — 67 63% 1 1 —
Sebastian Sebulonsen D 86 6.70 — — — 38 33% 1 — —
Jakub Kamiński M 90 7.70 — — 1 50 41% — — —
E. Martel M 90 7.00 — — 1 61 58% 1 1 —
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson M 90 7.90 — — 3 47 38% — — —
Jan Uwe Thielmann M 67 6.90 — — — 26 23% 1 — —
S. El Mala F 67 6.60 1 — 1 13 10% — — —
R. Ache F 76 6.30 1 — 4 7 6% — 1 —
Alessio Castro-Montes M 45 6.70 — — — 27 23% — — —
Linton Maina M 23 7.20 — — — 12 10% — — —
Luca Waldschmidt F 14 6.90 — — 2 5 5% — — —
Marius Bülter F 23 6.90 — — 1 8 6% — — —
Tom Krauß M 13 6.30 — — — — — — — —
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Mio Backhaus G 90 7.60 1 — — 33 22% — — —
Olivier Deman D 90 6.90 — — — 32 28% 1 — —
Marco Friedl D 24 4.20 — — — 20 17% 1 — 1
Amos Pieper D 90 7.30 — — — 47 37% 3 1 —
Yukinari Sugawara D 45 6.70 — — — 12 10% 1 — —
L. Bittencourt M 84 6.70 — — — 38 31% 3 1 —
M 90 6.90 — — 2 39 35% 1 — —
Felix Agu M 78 6.90 — — — 18 15% 2 — —
Romano Schmid M 90 7.30 1 — 1 47 36% — — —
Marco Grüll M 45 6.30 — — 1 11 7% 1 — —
Justin Njinmah F 90 7.00 — — — 12 10% 2 — —
Isaac Schmidt D 12 6.20 — — — 6 3% — — —
J. Milošević F 15 6.50 — — 1 2 — — — —
Karim Coulibaly D 45 6.20 — — — 20 20% 1 — —
Salim Musah F 45 6.50 — — — 11 9% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
The final score was 1. FC Köln 3–1 Werder Bremen.
What did the model predict before 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?
The model assigned 42% probability to a 1. FC Köln win, 27% to a draw, and 30% to an Werder Bremen win.