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Conference League · Quarter-finals April 16, 2026 21:00
AEK Athens FC
#3 · 13 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Rayo Vallecano
#5 · 13 pts
Zini (ast. S. Pilios) 13'
R. Marin 36' (pen.)
Zini (ast. D. Kutesa) 51'
60' (ast. P. Diaz) I. Palazon

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave AEK Athens FC a 51% win probability (draw 27%, Rayo Vallecano 21%). The final result was AEK Athens FC 3–1 Rayo Vallecano. In 1 previous meetings, AEK Athens FC have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Rayo Vallecano.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
9
9
Shots on target
4
2.78
Actual xG
1.80
3
Saves
5
64%
Possession
36%
8
Corners
2
12
Tackles
22
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Zini · ast. S. Pilios
13'
20'
I. Akhomach
27'
Pacha / A. Garcia ↕
B. Varga
31'
⚽R. Marin (pen.)
36'
45'
U. Lopez
46'
Alemao / I. Akhomach ↕
⚽Zini · ast. D. Kutesa
51'
55'
O. Valentin / U. Lopez ↕
55'
P. Diaz / Luiz Felipe ↕
60'
ast. P. Diaz · I. Palazon⚽
↕ D. Kutesa / N. Eliasson
71'
↕ Zini / M. Gacinovic
77'
80'
N. Mendy / I. Palazon ↕
↕ S. Pilios / R. Pereyra
85'
A. Koita
90'+1
90'+6
P. Diaz
Pre-match prediction
51.47%
AEK ←
27.51%
X
21.02%
Rayo
we assigned to the actual result (AEK Athens FC) 51.47% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
AEK
1.46
2.78
+1.32
Rayo
0.90
1.80
+0.9
AEK Athens FC dominated by xG (2.78 vs 1.80). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Strasbourg Strasbourg 6 16
2 Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa 6 14
3 AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 6 13
4 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 6 13
5 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 6 13
6 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 6 13
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 6 13
8 AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca 6 12
9 Lausanne Lausanne 6 11
10 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 6 10
11 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 6 10
12 Samsunspor Samsunspor 6 10
13 Celje Celje 6 10
14 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 6 10
15 Fiorentina Fiorentina 6 9
16 HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka 6 9
17 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 6 9
18 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 6 8
19 FC Noah FC Noah 6 8
20 Drita Drita 6 8
21 KuPS KuPS 6 7
22 Shkendija Shkendija 6 7
23 Zrinjski Zrinjski 6 7
24 Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc 6 7
25 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 6 7
26 Lincoln Red Imps FC Lincoln Red Imps FC 6 7
27 Dynamo Kyiv Dynamo Kyiv 6 6
28 Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa 6 6
29 Slovan Bratislava Slovan Bratislava 6 6
30 Breidablik Breidablik 6 5
31 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 6 4
32 BK Hacken BK Hacken 6 3
33 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 6 3
34 Shelbourne Shelbourne 6 2
35 Aberdeen Aberdeen 6 2
36 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 6 1
Lineups
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 4-4-2
1
G 6.90
3 Stavros Pilios Stavros Pilios 1 👟 85' D 6.90
44 Filipe Relvas Filipe Relvas D 7.30
2
D 6.90
12 L. Rota L. Rota D 8.90
7 Dereck Kutesa Dereck Kutesa 1 👟 71' M 7.20
13 Orbelín Pineda Orbelín Pineda M 7.50
18 R. Marin R. Marin 1 ⚽ M 7.90
11 Aboubakary Koita Aboubakary Koita M 7.00
25 Barnabás Varga Barnabás Varga F 7.20
90 Zini Zini 2 ⚽ 77' F 7.60
Bench
21 Domagoj Vida Domagoj Vida D
29 James Penrice James Penrice D
15 Martin Georgiev Martin Georgiev D
8
M. Gacinovic 20' M 6.90
37 Roberto Pereyra Roberto Pereyra 12' M 6.90
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
13 Augusto Batalla Augusto Batalla G 7.50
3
D 6.20
5
Luiz Felipe 55' D 6.20
24 Florian Lejeune Florian Lejeune D 6.70
2 A. Rațiu A. Rațiu D 5.20
6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss Pathé Ismaël Ciss M 6.90
17 Unai López Unai López 55' M 5.90
18 Álvaro García Álvaro García 27' M 6.30
7 Isi Palazón Isi Palazón 1 ⚽ 80' M 7.90
12
I. Akhomach 45' M 5.90
19 Jorge de Frutos Jorge de Frutos F 6.50
Bench
9 Alemão Alemão 52' F 6.70
1 Dani Cárdenas Dani Cárdenas G
15 Gerard Gumbau Gerard Gumbau M
32 Nobel Mendy Nobel Mendy 17' D 6.60
23 Óscar Valentín Óscar Valentín 42' M 7.70
22 Pacha Pacha 70' D 5.60
4 Pedro Díaz Pedro Díaz 1 👟 42' M 6.70
10 Sergio Camello Sergio Camello F
Best on the pitch
L. Rota
L. Rota
D · AEK
8.90
· 49 pass
Isi Palazón
Isi Palazón
M · Rayo
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 20 pass
R. Marin
R. Marin
M · AEK
7.90
1 ⚽
4 shots · 57 pass
Óscar Valentín
Óscar Valentín
M · Rayo
7.70
· 12 pass
Zini
Zini
F · AEK
7.60
2 ⚽
5 shots · 14 pass
Augusto Batalla
Augusto Batalla
G · Rayo
7.50
· 30 pass
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 97 6.90 — — — 18 14% — — —
Stavros Pilios D 85 6.90 — 1 — 28 16% 4 — —
Filipe Relvas D 97 7.30 — — 1 44 37% 1 — —
D 97 6.90 — — 2 48 43% 2 — —
L. Rota D 97 8.90 — — — 49 41% 1 — —
Dereck Kutesa M 71 7.20 — 1 1 14 10% — — —
Orbelín Pineda M 97 7.50 — — — 42 37% 1 — —
R. Marin M 97 7.90 1 — 4 57 39% 2 — —
Aboubakary Koita M 97 7.00 — — 2 18 17% — 1 —
Barnabás Varga F 97 7.20 — — 3 20 13% — 1 —
Zini F 77 7.60 2 — 5 14 13% — — —
M. Gacinovic M 20 6.90 — — — 10 8% 1 — —
Roberto Pereyra M 12 6.90 — — — 8 8% — — —
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Augusto Batalla G 97 7.50 — — — 30 15% — — —
D 97 6.20 — — — 22 13% 4 — —
Luiz Felipe D 55 6.20 — — — 8 6% 2 — —
Florian Lejeune D 97 6.70 — — 2 21 14% 2 — —
A. Rațiu D 97 5.20 — — 1 16 8% — — —
Pathé Ismaël Ciss M 97 6.90 — — — 26 14% 1 — —
Unai López M 55 5.90 — — — 17 11% 1 1 —
Álvaro García M 27 6.30 — — 2 3 2% 2 — —
Isi Palazón M 80 7.90 1 — 2 20 16% 3 — —
I. Akhomach M 45 5.90 — — 1 7 3% — 1 —
Jorge de Frutos F 97 6.50 — — 1 15 9% — — —
Alemão F 52 6.70 — — — 7 5% — — —
Nobel Mendy D 17 6.60 — — — 2 1% — — —
Óscar Valentín M 42 7.70 — — — 12 12% 3 — —
Pacha D 70 5.60 — — — 14 12% 2 — —
Pedro Díaz M 42 6.70 — 1 — 12 8% 2 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of AEK Athens FC vs Rayo Vallecano?
The final score was AEK Athens FC 3–1 Rayo Vallecano.
What did the model predict before AEK Athens FC vs Rayo Vallecano?
The model assigned 51% probability to a AEK Athens FC win, 27% to a draw, and 21% to an Rayo Vallecano win.