Conference League
· Quarter-finals
April 16, 2026 21:00
Zini
(ast. S. Pilios)
13'
R. Marin
36'
(pen.)
Zini
(ast. D. Kutesa)
51'
60'
(ast. P. Diaz)
I. Palazon
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave AEK Athens FC a 51% win probability (draw 27%, Rayo Vallecano 21%). The final result was AEK Athens FC 3–1 Rayo Vallecano. In 1 previous meetings, AEK Athens FC have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Rayo Vallecano.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
9
9
Shots on target
4
2.78
Actual xG
1.80
3
Saves
5
64%
Possession
36%
8
Corners
2
12
Tackles
22
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Zini
· ast. S. Pilios
13'
20'
I. Akhomach
27'
Pacha
/
A. Garcia
B. Varga
31'
⚽R. Marin
(pen.)
36'
45'
U. Lopez
46'
Alemao
/
I. Akhomach
⚽Zini
· ast. D. Kutesa
51'
55'
O. Valentin
/
U. Lopez
55'
P. Diaz
/
Luiz Felipe
60'
ast. P. Diaz ·
I. Palazon⚽
D. Kutesa
/ N. Eliasson
71'
Zini
/ M. Gacinovic
77'
80'
N. Mendy
/
I. Palazon
S. Pilios
/ R. Pereyra
85'
A. Koita
90'+1
90'+6
P. Diaz
Pre-match prediction
51.47%
AEK ←
27.51%
X
21.02%
Rayo
we assigned to the actual result (AEK Athens FC)
51.47%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.46
2.78
+1.32
0.90
1.80
+0.9
AEK Athens FC dominated by xG (2.78 vs 1.80).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
3
S. Pilios
1 👟
85'
D
S. Pilios
1 👟
85'
D
44
Filipe Relvas
D
Filipe Relvas
D
2
D
12
L. Rota
D
L. Rota
D
7
Dereck Kutesa
1 👟
71'
M
Dereck Kutesa
1 👟
71'
M
13
O. Pineda
M
O. Pineda
M
18
R. Marin
1 ⚽
M
R. Marin
1 ⚽
M
11
A. Koita
M
A. Koita
M
25
B. Varga
F
B. Varga
F
90
Zini
2 ⚽
77'
F
Zini
2 ⚽
77'
F
Bench
21
D. Vida
D
D. Vida
D
29
J. Penrice
D
J. Penrice
D
8
M. Gaćinović
20'
M
M. Gaćinović
20'
M
15
M. Todorski
D
M. Todorski
D
37
Roberto Pereyra
12'
M
Roberto Pereyra
12'
M
13
Augusto Batalla
G
Augusto Batalla
G
3
D
5
Luiz Felipe
55'
D
24
F. Lejeune
D
F. Lejeune
D
2
A. Rațiu
D
A. Rațiu
D
6
P. Ciss
M
P. Ciss
M
17
Unai López
55'
M
Unai López
55'
M
18
Álvaro García
27'
M
Álvaro García
27'
M
7
Isi Palazón
1 ⚽
80'
M
Isi Palazón
1 ⚽
80'
M
12
Ilias Akhomach
45'
M
Ilias Akhomach
45'
M
19
Jorge de Frutos
F
Jorge de Frutos
F
Bench
22
A. Espino
70'
D
A. Espino
70'
D
9
Alemão
52'
F
Alemão
52'
F
1
Dani Cárdenas
G
Dani Cárdenas
G
15
Gerard Gumbau
M
Gerard Gumbau
M
32
N. Mendy
17'
D
N. Mendy
17'
D
23
Óscar Valentín
42'
M
Óscar Valentín
42'
M
4
Pedro Díaz
1 👟
42'
M
Pedro Díaz
1 👟
42'
M
10
Sergio Camello
F
Sergio Camello
F
Best on the pitch
L. Rota
D · AEK
8.90
· 49 pass
Isi Palazón
M · Rayo
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 20 pass
R. Marin
M · AEK
7.90
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 57 pass
Óscar Valentín
M · Rayo
7.70
· 12 pass
Zini
F · AEK
7.60
2 ⚽
5 shots
· 14 pass
Augusto Batalla
G · Rayo
7.50
· 30 pass
AEK Athens FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| S. Pilios | D | 85 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 28 | 16% | 4 | — | — |
| Filipe Relvas | D | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 48 | 43% | 2 | — | — | |
| L. Rota | D | 97 | 8.90 | — | — | — | 49 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Dereck Kutesa | M | 71 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| O. Pineda | M | 97 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Marin | M | 97 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 4 | 57 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Koita | M | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| B. Varga | F | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 20 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| Zini | F | 77 | 7.60 | 2 | — | 5 | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| M. Gaćinović | M | 20 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Roberto Pereyra | M | 12 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
Rayo Vallecano — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augusto Batalla | G | 97 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 15% | — | — | — |
| D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 13% | 4 | — | — | |
| Luiz Felipe | D | 55 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Lejeune | D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Rațiu | D | 97 | 5.20 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 8% | — | — | — |
| P. Ciss | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Unai López | M | 55 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Álvaro García | M | 27 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| Isi Palazón | M | 80 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 20 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| Ilias Akhomach | M | 45 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| Jorge de Frutos | F | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 9% | — | — | — |
| A. Espino | D | 70 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Alemão | F | 52 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| N. Mendy | D | 17 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Óscar Valentín | M | 42 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 42 | 6.70 | — | 1 | — | 12 | 8% | 2 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of AEK Athens FC vs Rayo Vallecano?
The final score was AEK Athens FC 3–1 Rayo Vallecano.
What did the model predict before AEK Athens FC vs Rayo Vallecano?
The model assigned 51% probability to a AEK Athens FC win, 27% to a draw, and 21% to an Rayo Vallecano win.