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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 18:30
Alverca
#11 · 39 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Casa Pia
#16 · 29 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Alverca
Figueiredo (ast. Chiquinho) 49'
Chiquinho 63'
Rhaldney (ast. Marezi) 83'
1' (ast. J. Livolant) J. Marques

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Alverca a 54% win probability (draw 25%, Casa Pia 19%). The final result was Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia. In 1 previous meetings, Alverca have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Casa Pia.

Match statistics
8
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
5
1.83
Actual xG
0.65
4
Saves
3
60%
Possession
40%
9
Corners
11
14
Tackles
19
Match Events
1'
ast. J. Livolant · J. Marques⚽
⚽Figueiredo · ast. Chiquinho
49'
58'
C. Mendes / Cassiano ↕
⚽Chiquinho
63'
68'
D. Livramento / J. Livolant ↕
69'
L. Ofori / J. Marques ↕
69'
I. Mohamed / S. Perez ↕
↕ Sandro Lima / Marezi
75'
82'
A. Geraldes / D. Sousa ↕
⚽Rhaldney · ast. Marezi
83'
↕ Rhaldney / C. Nuozzi
87'
↕ Figueiredo / V. Moreira
87'
↕ Lincoln / D. Gui
90'+3
↕ Chiquinho / Z. Kassary
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
54.85%
Alverca ←
25.72%
X
19.43%
Casa
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Alverca) 54.85% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Alverca
1.54
1.83
+0.29
Casa
0.75
0.65
-0.1
Alverca dominated by xG (1.83 vs 0.65). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Lineups
Alverca Alverca 3-4-3
31
G 7.20
33
D 6.90
5 Sergi Gómez Sergi Gómez D 6.90
4 Kaiky Naves Kaiky Naves D 6.50
12
M 7.00
18 Lincoln Lincoln 89' M 6.90
26 Rhaldney Rhaldney 1 ⚽ 87' M 8.00
2
M 6.50
10
Chiquinho 1 ⚽ 1 👟 89' F 8.90
91 Sandro Lima Sandro Lima 75' F 6.20
20 Figueiredo Figueiredo 1 ⚽ 87' F 7.90
Bench
11 Cédric Nuozzi Cédric Nuozzi 9' F 6.30
9 M. Milovanović M. Milovanović 1 👟 15' F 6.30
Casa Pia Casa Pia 3-4-3
1 Patrick Sequeira Patrick Sequeira G 5.90
43 David Sousa David Sousa 82' D 5.20
3
D 5.90
4 João Goulart João Goulart D 5.90
75 Pedro Rosas Pedro Rosas M 6.30
8
R. Brito M 6.30
42 Sebastián Pérez Sebastián Pérez 69' M 7.30
72 Gaizka Larrazabal Gaizka Larrazabal M 6.60
11 Joao Marques Joao Marques 1 ⚽ 69' F 7.20
90
Cassiano 58' F 6.20
29 J. Livolant J. Livolant 1 👟 68' F 7.30
Bench
18
A. Geraldes 8' D 6.30
99 Claudio Mendes Claudio Mendes 32' F 6.20
10 Dailon Rocha Livramento Dailon Rocha Livramento 22' F 6.60
24
I. Mohamed 21' M 6.60
95 Ivan Mandić Ivan Mandić G
19 Kevin Prieto Kevin Prieto F
80 Lawrence Ofori Lawrence Ofori 21' M 6.60
21 Tiago Morais Tiago Morais F
Best on the pitch
Chiquinho
F · Alverca
8.90
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 15 pass
Rhaldney
Rhaldney
M · Alverca
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 44 pass
Figueiredo
Figueiredo
F · Alverca
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 17 pass
J. Livolant
J. Livolant
F · Casa
7.30
1 👟
· 12 pass
Sebastián Pérez
Sebastián Pérez
M · Casa
7.30
1 shots · 21 pass
G · Alverca
7.20
· 23 pass
Alverca Alverca — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.20 — — — 23 14% — — —
D 90 6.90 — — — 42 37% — — —
Sergi Gómez D 90 6.90 — — — 39 30% 3 — —
Kaiky Naves D 90 6.50 — — 1 58 45% — — —
M 90 7.00 — — — 31 25% 2 — —
Lincoln M 89 6.90 — — — 47 37% 3 — —
Rhaldney M 87 8.00 1 — 1 44 43% 4 — —
M 90 6.50 — — 1 25 17% — — —
Chiquinho F 89 8.90 1 1 3 15 11% 1 — —
Sandro Lima F 75 6.20 — — 1 13 7% — — —
Figueiredo F 87 7.90 1 — 1 17 13% 1 — —
Cédric Nuozzi F 9 6.30 — — — 2 2% — — —
M. Milovanović F 15 6.30 — 1 — 5 4% — — —
Casa Pia Casa Pia — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Patrick Sequeira G 90 5.90 — — — 25 14% — — —
David Sousa D 82 5.20 — — — 23 10% — — —
D 90 5.90 — — — 10 3% 4 — —
João Goulart D 90 5.90 — — — 15 7% 2 — —
Pedro Rosas M 90 6.30 — — — 14 10% — — —
R. Brito M 90 6.30 — — 1 29 22% 2 — —
Sebastián Pérez M 69 7.30 — — 1 21 15% 3 — —
Gaizka Larrazabal M 90 6.60 — — 3 30 17% 2 — —
Joao Marques F 69 7.20 1 — 1 16 11% — — —
Cassiano F 58 6.20 — — 1 7 5% 2 — —
J. Livolant F 68 7.30 — 1 — 12 8% 1 — —
A. Geraldes D 8 6.30 — — — 2 1% — — —
Claudio Mendes F 32 6.20 — — 1 8 4% — — —
Dailon Rocha Livramento F 22 6.60 — — 2 5 3% 1 — —
I. Mohamed M 21 6.60 — — — 8 5% — — —
Lawrence Ofori M 21 6.60 — — — 13 9% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Alverca vs Casa Pia?
The final score was Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia.
What did the model predict before Alverca vs Casa Pia?
The model assigned 54% probability to a Alverca win, 25% to a draw, and 19% to an Casa Pia win.