Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 29
April 12, 2026 16:30
FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo
✓Model correct — prediction Alverca
Figueiredo
(ast. Chiquinho)
49'
Chiquinho
63'
Rhaldney
(ast. Marezi)
83'
1'
(ast. J. Livolant)
J. Marques
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Alverca a 54% win probability (draw 25%, Casa Pia 19%). The final result was Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia. In 1 previous meetings, Alverca have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Casa Pia.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
5
1.83
Actual xG
0.65
4
Saves
3
60%
Possession
40%
9
Corners
11
14
Tackles
19
Match Events
1'
ast. J. Livolant ·
J. Marques⚽
⚽Figueiredo
· ast. Chiquinho
49'
58'
C. Mendes
/
Cassiano
⚽Chiquinho
63'
68'
D. Livramento
/
J. Livolant
69'
L. Ofori
/
J. Marques
69'
I. Mohamed
/
S. Perez
Sandro Lima
/ Marezi
75'
82'
A. Geraldes
/
D. Sousa
⚽Rhaldney
· ast. Marezi
83'
Rhaldney
/ C. Nuozzi
87'
Figueiredo
/ V. Moreira
87'
Lincoln
/ D. Gui
90'+3
Chiquinho
/ Z. Kassary
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
54.85%
Alverca ←
25.72%
X
19.43%
Casa
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Alverca)
54.85%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.54
1.83
+0.29
0.75
0.65
-0.1
Alverca dominated by xG (1.83 vs 0.65).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
31
G
33
D
5
Sergi Gómez
D
Sergi Gómez
D
4
Kaiky Naves
D
Kaiky Naves
D
12
M
18
Lincoln
89'
M
Lincoln
89'
M
26
Rhaldney
1 ⚽
87'
M
Rhaldney
1 ⚽
87'
M
2
M
10
Chiquinho
1 ⚽
1 👟
89'
F
Chiquinho
1 ⚽
1 👟
89'
F
91
Sandro Lima
75'
F
20
Figueiredo
1 ⚽
87'
F
Figueiredo
1 ⚽
87'
F
Bench
11
Cédric Nuozzi
9'
F
Cédric Nuozzi
9'
F
9
M. Milovanović
1 👟
15'
F
M. Milovanović
1 👟
15'
F
1
P. Sequeira
G
P. Sequeira
G
43
David Sousa
82'
D
David Sousa
82'
D
3
D
4
João Goulart
D
João Goulart
D
75
Pedro Rosas
M
Pedro Rosas
M
8
Rafael Brito
M
Rafael Brito
M
42
Sebastián Pérez
69'
M
Sebastián Pérez
69'
M
72
Gaizka Larrazabal
M
Gaizka Larrazabal
M
11
João Marques
1 ⚽
69'
F
João Marques
1 ⚽
69'
F
90
Cassiano
58'
F
Cassiano
58'
F
29
J. Livolant
1 👟
68'
F
J. Livolant
1 👟
68'
F
Bench
18
André Geraldes
8'
D
André Geraldes
8'
D
99
Claudio Mendes
32'
F
Claudio Mendes
32'
F
10
Dailon Rocha Livramento
22'
F
Dailon Rocha Livramento
22'
F
95
Ivan Mandić
G
Ivan Mandić
G
24
Iyad Mohamed
21'
M
Iyad Mohamed
21'
M
19
Kevin Prieto
F
Kevin Prieto
F
80
Lawrence Ofori
21'
M
Lawrence Ofori
21'
M
21
Tiago Morais
F
Tiago Morais
F
Best on the pitch
Chiquinho
F · Alverca
8.90
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 15 pass
Rhaldney
M · Alverca
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 44 pass
Figueiredo
F · Alverca
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 17 pass
J. Livolant
F · Casa
7.30
1 👟
· 12 pass
Sebastián Pérez
M · Casa
7.30
1 shots
· 21 pass
G · Alverca
7.20
· 23 pass
Alverca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 37% | — | — | — | |
| Sergi Gómez | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 39 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| Kaiky Naves | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 58 | 45% | — | — | — |
| M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | 2 | — | — | |
| Lincoln | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 47 | 37% | 3 | — | — |
| Rhaldney | M | 87 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 44 | 43% | 4 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| Chiquinho | F | 89 | 8.90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Sandro Lima | F | 75 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Figueiredo | F | 87 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Cédric Nuozzi | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| M. Milovanović | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | 1 | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Casa Pia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Sequeira | G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 14% | — | — | — |
| David Sousa | D | 82 | 5.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 10% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 3% | 4 | — | — | |
| João Goulart | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| Pedro Rosas | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Rafael Brito | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Sebastián Pérez | M | 69 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 30 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| João Marques | F | 69 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Cassiano | F | 58 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Livolant | F | 68 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 12 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| André Geraldes | D | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Claudio Mendes | F | 32 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Dailon Rocha Livramento | F | 22 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 5 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Iyad Mohamed | M | 21 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Lawrence Ofori | M | 21 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Alverca vs Casa Pia?
The final score was Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia.
What did the model predict before Alverca vs Casa Pia?
The model assigned 54% probability to a Alverca win, 25% to a draw, and 19% to an Casa Pia win.