Arouca - Tondela

Primeira Liga May 16, 2026 19:00

Arouca

#10 · 39 pts

19:00

vs

Tondela

#17 · 28 pts

Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 14.9°C 💨 12 km/h · Arouca

⚡ Pre-match analysis

51.78%

Win

Arouca

27.51%

Draw

20.72%

Win

Tondela

1.32

Expected xG

0.62

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Arouca a 51% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Tondela. Expected goals are 1.3 for Arouca and 0.6 for Tondela (total 1.9), with a 70% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 18.9% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Arouca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Tondela.

Score Matrix

↕ Arouca Tondela →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14.3%	8.9%	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%	—
1	18.9%	11.8%	3.7%	0.8%	0.1%	—
2	12.5%	7.8%	2.4%	0.5%	0.1%	—
3	5.5%	3.4%	1.1%	0.2%	—	—
4	1.8%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%	—	—
5	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	—	—	—

Recent form

Arouca

W GIL Vicente 1–3

D Santa Clara 2–2

L Alverca 2–1

W Estrela 1–0

L SC Braga 1–0

Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 28%

Tondela

W Moreirense 2–0

W Casa Pia 0–1

D Sporting CP 2–2

L Nacional 0–2

L FC Porto 2–0

Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 28%

Playing profile

Arouca

Attack

38

Defence

67

Form

52

Tondela

Attack

30

Defence

59

Form

37

Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0

Arouca

0

Draw

1

Tondela

L 3 Jan 2026 Primeira Liga 1–3

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	33	85
2	Sporting CP	33	79
3	Benfica	33	77
4	SC Braga	33	58
5	Famalicao	33	53
6	GIL Vicente	33	50
7	Moreirense	33	42
8	Guimaraes	33	42
9	Estoril	33	39
10	Arouca	33	39
11	Alverca	33	39
12	Santa Clara	33	36
13	Rio Ave	33	35
14	Nacional	33	31
15	Estrela	33	29
16	Casa Pia	33	29
17	Tondela	33	28
18	AVS	33	20