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T. Fukui 20'
A. Trezza (ast. Tiago Esgaio) 77'
H. Lee (ast. D. Nandin) 85'
65' (ast. M. Aiko) Rony Lopes
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arouca a 49% win probability (draw 27%, Tondela 22%). The final result was Arouca 3–1 Tondela. In 1 previous meetings, Arouca have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Tondela.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
5
4
Shots on target
2
1.53
Actual xG
0.51
1
Saves
1
53%
Possession
47%
5
Corners
6
22
Tackles
16
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽T. Fukui
20'
O. Fayed
39'
41'
Cicero
B. Kuipers
41'
↕ O. Fayed / D. Monteiro
59'
61'
H. Tavares / Cicero ↕
↕ I. Barbero / D. Nandin
63'
↕ N. Djouahra / H. Lee
63'
65'
ast. M. Aiko · Rony Lopes⚽
73'
B. Kimpioka / M. Aiko ↕
73'
J. Hodge / H. Felix ↕
⚽A. Trezza · ast. Tiago Esgaio
77'
↕ P. Gozalbez / Pedro Santos
79'
↕ T. Fukui / M. Flores
79'
H. Lee
81'
81'
A. van der Heide / R. Conceicao ↕
82'
J. Afonso / Pedro Maranhao ↕
⚽H. Lee · ast. D. Nandin
85'
Pre-match prediction
49.88%
Arouca ←
27.56%
X
22.56%
Tondela
we assigned to the actual result (Arouca) 49.88% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Arouca
1.32
1.53
+0.21
Tondela
0.62
0.51
-0.11
Arouca dominated by xG (1.53 vs 0.51). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 7 21
2 Benfica Benfica 7 16
3 Sporting CP Sporting CP 7 15
4 Santa Clara Santa Clara 7 15
5 Arouca Arouca 7 11
6 SC Braga SC Braga 6 11
7 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 7 11
8 Estrela Estrela 7 10
9 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 6 8
10 Alverca Alverca 7 8
11 Maritimo Maritimo 7 8
12 Moreirense Moreirense 7 8
13 Famalicao Famalicao 7 7
14 Vitória SC Vitória SC 7 5
15 Nacional Nacional 7 4
16 Rio Ave Rio Ave 7 4
17 Casa Pia Casa Pia 7 4
18 Estoril Estoril 7 2
Lineups
Arouca Arouca 4-2-3-1
12 I. de Arruabarrena I. de Arruabarrena G 6.50
25 B. Kuipers B. Kuipers D 6.70
15 Javi Sánchez Javi Sánchez D 6.60
66 Omar Fayed Omar Fayed 59' D 7.20
28 Tiago Esgaio Tiago Esgaio 1 👟 D 8.30
21 T. Fukui T. Fukui 1 ⚽ 79' M 8.70
22 E. van Ee E. van Ee M 6.90
7 N. Djouahra N. Djouahra 63' M 7.00
10 Pablo Gozálbez Pablo Gozálbez 79' M 6.90
19 A. Trezza A. Trezza 1 ⚽ M 8.20
17 Barbero Barbero 63' F 6.50
Bench
24 B. Mansilla B. Mansilla F
6 Diogo Monteiro Diogo Monteiro 39' D 6.60
23 D. Nandín D. Nandín 1 👟 35' F 7.30
9 F. Mayulu F. Mayulu F
2 José Silva José Silva D
30 J. Vinarčík J. Vinarčík G
14 Lee Hyun-Ju Lee Hyun-Ju 1 ⚽ 35' M 7.20
46 Mateo Flores Mateo Flores 19' M 6.70
89 Pedro Santos Pedro Santos 19' M 7.00
Tondela Tondela 3-4-3
31 Bernardo Fontes Bernardo Fontes G 6.30
32 J. Rodríguez J. Rodríguez D 6.30
4
Christian Marques D 6.90
44 João Silva João Silva D 7.00
27 Rodrigo Conceição Rodrigo Conceição 81' M 6.20
79
Hugo Félix 73' M 6.50
97
Cícero 61' M 5.90
48 Tiago Manso Tiago Manso M 6.70
90 M. Aïko M. Aïko 1 👟 73' F 7.00
16 Rony Lopes Rony Lopes 1 ⚽ F 7.70
7 Pedro Maranhão Pedro Maranhão 82' F 6.90
Bench
26
A. van der Heide 17' F 6.60
2
Bebeto D
23 B. Mbunga Kimpioka B. Mbunga Kimpioka 25' F 6.30
1
Gabriel Souza G
8
Hélder Tavares 37' M 6.30
10 J. Hodge J. Hodge 25' M 6.30
5
João Afonso 16' D 6.30
29 J. Siebatcheu J. Siebatcheu F
15 S. Sithole S. Sithole M
Best on the pitch
T. Fukui
T. Fukui
M · Arouca
8.70
1 ⚽
2 shots · 33 pass
Tiago Esgaio
Tiago Esgaio
D · Arouca
8.30
1 👟
1 shots · 48 pass
A. Trezza
A. Trezza
M · Arouca
8.20
1 ⚽
4 shots · 15 pass
Rony Lopes
Rony Lopes
F · Tondela
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots · 39 pass
D. Nandín
D. Nandín
F · Arouca
7.30
1 👟
· 11 pass
Omar Fayed
Omar Fayed
D · Arouca
7.20
· 50 pass
Arouca Arouca — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
I. de Arruabarrena G 98 6.50 — — — 43 29% — — —
B. Kuipers D 98 6.70 — — — 36 26% 1 1 —
Javi Sánchez D 98 6.60 — — — 75 64% — — —
Omar Fayed D 59 7.20 — — — 50 43% 2 1 —
Tiago Esgaio D 98 8.30 — 1 1 48 36% 4 — —
T. Fukui M 79 8.70 1 — 2 33 26% 2 — —
E. van Ee M 98 6.90 — — — 44 39% 4 — —
N. Djouahra M 63 7.00 — — — 17 15% — — —
Pablo Gozálbez M 79 6.90 — — 2 20 18% 3 — —
A. Trezza M 98 8.20 1 — 4 15 12% 1 — —
Barbero F 63 6.50 — — 2 13 11% 1 — —
Diogo Monteiro D 39 6.60 — — — 14 14% 2 — —
D. Nandín F 35 7.30 — 1 — 11 8% — — —
Lee Hyun-Ju M 35 7.20 1 — 1 12 7% — 1 —
Mateo Flores M 19 6.70 — — — 6 6% — — —
Pedro Santos M 19 7.00 — — — 15 13% 2 — —
Tondela Tondela — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Bernardo Fontes G 98 6.30 — — — 33 24% — — —
J. Rodríguez D 98 6.30 — — — 53 44% — — —
Christian Marques D 98 6.90 — — — 49 45% 1 — —
João Silva D 98 7.00 — — — 50 44% 4 — —
Rodrigo Conceição M 81 6.20 — — — 28 25% — — —
Hugo Félix M 73 6.50 — — 1 25 20% — — —
Cícero M 61 5.90 — — — 29 22% 1 1 —
Tiago Manso M 98 6.70 — — 1 27 23% 3 — —
M. Aïko F 73 7.00 — 1 — 13 10% 1 — —
Rony Lopes F 98 7.70 1 — 2 39 26% 1 — —
Pedro Maranhão F 82 6.90 — — 1 17 10% 2 — —
A. van der Heide F 17 6.60 — — — 8 6% 1 — —
B. Mbunga Kimpioka F 25 6.30 — — — 4 4% — — —
Hélder Tavares M 37 6.30 — — — 8 7% — — —
J. Hodge M 25 6.30 — — — 11 9% 2 — —
João Afonso D 16 6.30 — — — 4 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arouca vs Tondela?
The final score was Arouca 3–1 Tondela.
What did the model predict before Arouca vs Tondela?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Arouca win, 27% to a draw, and 22% to an Tondela win.