Champions League
· Semi-finals
May 05, 2026 21:00
B. Saka
44'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arsenal a 49% win probability (draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 21%). The final result was Arsenal 1–0 Atletico Madrid. In 2 previous meetings, Arsenal have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Atletico Madrid.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
2
Shots on target
2
1.58
Actual xG
0.50
2
Saves
1
53%
Possession
47%
5
Corners
2
16
Tackles
21
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽B. Saka
44'
57'
J. Cardoso
/
G. Simeone
57'
A. Sorloth
/
R. Le Normand
57'
N. Molina
/
A. Lookman
R. Calafiori
/ P. Hincapie
58'
B. Saka
/ N. Madueke
58'
E. Eze
/ M. Odegaard
59'
66'
A. Baena
/
A. Griezmann
66'
T. Almada
/
J. Alvarez
M. Lewis-Skelly
/ M. Zubimendi
74'
81'
M. Pubill
L. Trossard
/ G. Martinelli
83'
90'+3
D. Simeone
M. Arteta
90'+3
90'+5
Koke
R. Calafiori
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
49.54%
Arsenal ←
28.51%
X
21.95%
Atletico
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal)
49.54%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.23
1.58
+0.35
0.80
0.50
-0.3
Arsenal dominated by xG (1.58 vs 0.50).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
33
Riccardo Calafiori
58'
D
Riccardo Calafiori
58'
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
2
D
4
Ben White
D
Ben White
D
49
Myles Lewis-Skelly
74'
M
Myles Lewis-Skelly
74'
M
41
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
19
L. Trossard
83'
M
L. Trossard
83'
M
10
Eberechi Eze
59'
M
Eberechi Eze
59'
M
7
Bukayo Saka
1 ⚽
58'
M
Bukayo Saka
1 ⚽
58'
M
14
V. Gyökeres
F
V. Gyökeres
F
Bench
16
C. Norgaard
M
3
Cristhian Mosquera
D
Cristhian Mosquera
D
9
Gabriel Jesus
F
11
Gabriel Martinelli
11'
F
Gabriel Martinelli
11'
F
29
K. Havertz
F
K. Havertz
F
36
Martín Zubimendi
20'
M
Martín Zubimendi
20'
M
8
M. Ødegaard
35'
M
M. Ødegaard
35'
M
20
Noni Madueke
36'
F
Noni Madueke
36'
F
13
G
3
Matteo Ruggeri
D
Matteo Ruggeri
D
17
Dávid Hancko
D
Dávid Hancko
D
24
Robin Le Normand
57'
D
Robin Le Normand
57'
D
18
Marc Pubill
D
Marc Pubill
D
22
Ademola Lookman
57'
M
Ademola Lookman
57'
M
6
Koke
M
Koke
M
14
Marcos Llorente
M
Marcos Llorente
M
20
G. Simeone
57'
M
G. Simeone
57'
M
19
J. Álvarez
66'
F
J. Álvarez
66'
F
7
Antoine Griezmann
66'
F
Antoine Griezmann
66'
F
Bench
10
Álex Baena
28'
M
Álex Baena
28'
M
9
A. Sørloth
37'
F
A. Sørloth
37'
F
15
Clément Lenglet
D
Clément Lenglet
D
32
Javier Boñar
D
Javier Boñar
D
5
J. Cardoso
37'
M
2
J. M. Gimenez
D
1
Juan Musso
G
Juan Musso
G
34
Julio Díaz
M
Julio Díaz
M
16
N. Molina
37'
D
N. Molina
37'
D
21
Obed Vargas
M
Obed Vargas
M
4
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
11
T. Almada
28'
M
T. Almada
28'
M
Best on the pitch
D. Rice
M · Arsenal
7.60
· 61 pass
M. Ødegaard
M · Arsenal
7.30
1 shots
· 16 pass
David Raya
G · Arsenal
7.20
· 31 pass
D · Arsenal
7.20
1 shots
· 61 pass
L. Trossard
M · Arsenal
7.20
1 shots
· 31 pass
Bukayo Saka
M · Arsenal
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Riccardo Calafiori | D | 58 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 55% | 2 | — | — | |
| Ben White | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly | M | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 49 | 44% | — | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 94 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 61 | 55% | 4 | — | — |
| L. Trossard | M | 83 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Eberechi Eze | M | 59 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 29 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Bukayo Saka | M | 58 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 19 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 94 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 35 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Noni Madueke | F | 36 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Atletico Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 34 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| Matteo Ruggeri | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | 4 | — | — |
| Dávid Hancko | D | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 57 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 57 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Marc Pubill | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 19% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Ademola Lookman | M | 57 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Koke | M | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 57 | 50% | 2 | — | — |
| Marcos Llorente | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 20% | 4 | — | — |
| G. Simeone | M | 57 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Álvarez | F | 66 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Antoine Griezmann | F | 66 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 11% | 4 | — | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Sørloth | F | 37 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
| J. Cardoso | M | 37 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| N. Molina | D | 37 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| T. Almada | M | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid?
The final score was Arsenal 1–0 Atletico Madrid.
What did the model predict before Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Arsenal win, 28% to a draw, and 21% to an Atletico Madrid win.