Champions League
· Semi-finals
May 05, 2026 21:00
B. Saka
44'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arsenal a 49% win probability (draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 21%). The final result was Arsenal 1–0 Atletico Madrid. In 2 previous meetings, Arsenal have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Atletico Madrid.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
2
Shots on target
2
1.58
Actual xG
0.50
2
Saves
1
53%
Possession
47%
5
Corners
2
16
Tackles
21
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽B. Saka
44'
57'
J. Cardoso
/
G. Simeone
57'
A. Sorloth
/
R. Le Normand
57'
N. Molina
/
A. Lookman
R. Calafiori
/ P. Hincapie
58'
B. Saka
/ N. Madueke
58'
E. Eze
/ M. Odegaard
59'
66'
A. Baena
/
A. Griezmann
66'
T. Almada
/
J. Alvarez
M. Lewis-Skelly
/ M. Zubimendi
74'
81'
M. Pubill
L. Trossard
/ G. Martinelli
83'
90'+3
D. Simeone
M. Arteta
90'+3
90'+5
Koke
R. Calafiori
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
49.54%
Arsenal ←
28.51%
X
21.95%
Atletico
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal)
49.54%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.23
1.58
+0.35
0.80
0.50
-0.3
Arsenal dominated by xG (1.58 vs 0.50).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
33
R. Calafiori
58'
D
R. Calafiori
58'
D
6
Gabriel Magalhães
D
Gabriel Magalhães
D
2
D
4
B. White
D
B. White
D
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
74'
M
M. Lewis-Skelly
74'
M
41
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
19
L. Trossard
83'
M
L. Trossard
83'
M
10
E. Eze
59'
M
E. Eze
59'
M
7
B. Saka
1 ⚽
58'
M
B. Saka
1 ⚽
58'
M
14
V. Gyökeres
F
V. Gyökeres
F
Bench
16
C. Nørgaard
M
C. Nørgaard
M
3
Cristhian Mosquera
D
Cristhian Mosquera
D
9
Gabriel Jesus
F
Gabriel Jesus
F
11
Gabriel Martinelli
11'
F
Gabriel Martinelli
11'
F
29
K. Havertz
F
K. Havertz
F
36
Martín Zubimendi
20'
M
Martín Zubimendi
20'
M
8
M. Ødegaard
35'
M
M. Ødegaard
35'
M
20
N. Madueke
36'
F
N. Madueke
36'
F
13
G
3
M. Ruggeri
D
M. Ruggeri
D
17
D. Hancko
D
D. Hancko
D
24
Robin Le Normand
57'
D
Robin Le Normand
57'
D
18
Marc Pubill
D
Marc Pubill
D
22
A. Lookman
57'
M
A. Lookman
57'
M
6
Koke
M
Koke
M
14
Marcos Llorente
M
Marcos Llorente
M
20
G. Simeone
57'
M
G. Simeone
57'
M
19
J. Álvarez
66'
F
J. Álvarez
66'
F
7
A. Griezmann
66'
F
A. Griezmann
66'
F
Bench
10
Álex Baena
28'
M
Álex Baena
28'
M
9
A. Sørloth
37'
F
A. Sørloth
37'
F
15
C. Lenglet
D
C. Lenglet
D
32
Javier Boñar
D
Javier Boñar
D
5
J. Cardoso
37'
M
J. Cardoso
37'
M
2
J. Giménez
D
J. Giménez
D
1
J. Musso
G
J. Musso
G
34
Julio Díaz del Romo
M
Julio Díaz del Romo
M
16
N. Molina
37'
D
N. Molina
37'
D
21
O. Vargas
M
O. Vargas
M
4
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
Rodrigo Mendoza
M
11
T. Almada
28'
M
T. Almada
28'
M
Best on the pitch
D. Rice
M · Arsenal
7.60
· 61 pass
M. Ødegaard
M · Arsenal
7.30
1 shots
· 16 pass
David Raya
G · Arsenal
7.20
· 31 pass
D · Arsenal
7.20
1 shots
· 61 pass
L. Trossard
M · Arsenal
7.20
1 shots
· 31 pass
B. Saka
M · Arsenal
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Raya | G | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | — | — | — |
| R. Calafiori | D | 58 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 55% | 2 | — | — | |
| B. White | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Lewis-Skelly | M | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 49 | 44% | — | — | — |
| D. Rice | M | 94 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 61 | 55% | 4 | — | — |
| L. Trossard | M | 83 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Eze | M | 59 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 29 | 28% | — | — | — |
| B. Saka | M | 58 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 19 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 94 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Ødegaard | M | 35 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Madueke | F | 36 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Atletico Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 34 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| M. Ruggeri | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | 4 | — | — |
| D. Hancko | D | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 57 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 57 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Marc Pubill | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 19% | 3 | 1 | — |
| A. Lookman | M | 57 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Koke | M | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 57 | 50% | 2 | — | — |
| Marcos Llorente | M | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 20% | 4 | — | — |
| G. Simeone | M | 57 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Álvarez | F | 66 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | — | — | — |
| A. Griezmann | F | 66 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 11% | 4 | — | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Sørloth | F | 37 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
| J. Cardoso | M | 37 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| N. Molina | D | 37 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| T. Almada | M | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid?
The final score was Arsenal 1–0 Atletico Madrid.
What did the model predict before Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Arsenal win, 28% to a draw, and 21% to an Atletico Madrid win.