Europa League
· Quarter-finals
April 16, 2026 21:00
O. Watkins
(ast. M. Rogers)
16'
E. Buendia
(ast. L. Digne)
26'
M. Rogers
(ast. J. McGinn)
39'
E. Konsa
(ast. T. Abraham)
89'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Aston Villa a 48% win probability (draw 25%, Bologna 26%). The final result was Aston Villa 4–0 Bologna. In 2 previous meetings, Aston Villa have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Bologna.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
7
7
Shots on target
4
2.41
Actual xG
0.96
3
Saves
3
46%
Possession
54%
4
Corners
2
14
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽O. Watkins
· ast. M. Rogers
16'
⚽M. Rogers
(missed pen.)
25'
⚽E. Buendia
· ast. L. Digne
26'
29'
F. Bernardeschi
⚽M. Rogers
· ast. J. McGinn
39'
46'
R. Orsolini
/
F. Bernardeschi
46'
S. Sohm
/
R. Freuler
46'
N. Zortea
/
Joao Mario
J. McGinn
/ L. Bailey
64'
O. Watkins
/ T. Abraham
64'
M. Rogers
/ J. Sancho
74'
Y. Tielemans
/ Douglas Luiz
74'
76'
J. Odgaard
/
S. Castro
A. Onana
/ L. Bogarde
78'
82'
T. Heggem
/
N. Casale
⚽E. Konsa
· ast. T. Abraham
89'
Pre-match prediction
48.44%
Aston ←
25.52%
X
26.04%
Bologna
we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa)
48.44%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.42
2.41
+0.99
1.33
0.96
-0.37
Aston Villa dominated by xG (2.41 vs 0.96).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
Emiliano Martínez
G
Emiliano Martínez
G
12
Lucas Digne
1 👟
D
Lucas Digne
1 👟
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
4
Ezri Konsa
1 ⚽
D
Ezri Konsa
1 ⚽
D
2
Matty Cash
D
Matty Cash
D
8
Y. Tielemans
74'
M
Y. Tielemans
74'
M
24
A. Onana
78'
M
10
E. Buendía
1 ⚽
M
E. Buendía
1 ⚽
M
27
M. Rogers
1 ⚽
1 👟
74'
M
M. Rogers
1 ⚽
1 👟
74'
M
7
J. McGinn
1 👟
64'
M
J. McGinn
1 👟
64'
M
11
O. Watkins
1 ⚽
64'
F
O. Watkins
1 ⚽
64'
F
Bench
21
Douglas Luiz
16'
M
Douglas Luiz
16'
M
22
Ian Maatsen
D
Ian Maatsen
D
19
Jadon Sancho
16'
F
Jadon Sancho
16'
F
26
Lamare Bogarde
12'
M
Lamare Bogarde
12'
M
18
Tammy Abraham
1 👟
26'
F
Tammy Abraham
1 👟
26'
F
5
Tyrone Mings
D
Tyrone Mings
D
3
Victor Lindelöf
D
Victor Lindelöf
D
13
Federico Ravaglia
G
Federico Ravaglia
G
17
João Mário
45'
D
João Mário
45'
D
16
N. Casale
82'
D
41
D
33
Juan Miranda
D
Juan Miranda
D
6
Nikola Moro
M
Nikola Moro
M
8
R. Freuler
45'
M
R. Freuler
45'
M
11
J. Rowe
M
J. Rowe
M
19
Lewis Ferguson
M
Lewis Ferguson
M
10
F. Bernardeschi
45'
M
F. Bernardeschi
45'
M
9
S. Castro
76'
F
S. Castro
76'
F
Bench
21
Jens Odgaard
14'
F
Jens Odgaard
14'
F
20
Nadir Zortea
45'
D
Nadir Zortea
45'
D
28
N. Cambiaghi
F
7
Riccardo Orsolini
45'
F
Riccardo Orsolini
45'
F
23
Simon Sohm
45'
M
Simon Sohm
45'
M
4
Tommaso Pobega
M
Tommaso Pobega
M
Best on the pitch
M. Rogers
M · Aston
8.50
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 20 pass
Lucas Digne
D · Aston
8.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 27 pass
Ezri Konsa
D · Aston
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 34 pass
E. Buendía
M · Aston
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 22 pass
A. Onana
M · Aston
7.70
· 24 pass
O. Watkins
F · Aston
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 12 pass
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Digne | D | 90 | 8.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 27 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 34 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Matty Cash | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Onana | M | 78 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 90 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 22 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 74 | 8.50 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 16% | — | — | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 64 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 15 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| O. Watkins | F | 64 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Jadon Sancho | F | 16 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Lamare Bogarde | M | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Tammy Abraham | F | 26 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 4 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
Bologna — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Ravaglia | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| João Mário | D | 45 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| N. Casale | D | 82 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 48 | 43% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 46 | 41% | 4 | — | — | |
| Juan Miranda | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| Nikola Moro | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 55% | — | — | — |
| R. Freuler | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| J. Rowe | M | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Lewis Ferguson | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 35 | 32% | — | — | — |
| F. Bernardeschi | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| S. Castro | F | 76 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Jens Odgaard | F | 14 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Nadir Zortea | D | 45 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Riccardo Orsolini | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Simon Sohm | M | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Bologna?
The final score was Aston Villa 4–0 Bologna.
What did the model predict before Aston Villa vs Bologna?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Aston Villa win, 25% to a draw, and 26% to an Bologna win.