Europa League
· Quarter-finals
April 16, 2026 21:00
O. Watkins
(ast. M. Rogers)
16'
E. Buendia
(ast. L. Digne)
26'
M. Rogers
(ast. J. McGinn)
39'
E. Konsa
(ast. T. Abraham)
89'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Aston Villa a 48% win probability (draw 25%, Bologna 26%). The final result was Aston Villa 4–0 Bologna. In 2 previous meetings, Aston Villa have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Bologna.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
7
7
Shots on target
4
2.41
Actual xG
0.96
3
Saves
3
46%
Possession
54%
4
Corners
2
14
Tackles
11
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽O. Watkins
· ast. M. Rogers
16'
⚽M. Rogers
(missed pen.)
25'
⚽E. Buendia
· ast. L. Digne
26'
29'
F. Bernardeschi
⚽M. Rogers
· ast. J. McGinn
39'
46'
R. Orsolini
/
F. Bernardeschi
46'
S. Sohm
/
R. Freuler
46'
N. Zortea
/
Joao Mario
J. McGinn
/ L. Bailey
64'
O. Watkins
/ T. Abraham
64'
M. Rogers
/ J. Sancho
74'
Y. Tielemans
/ Douglas Luiz
74'
76'
J. Odgaard
/
S. Castro
A. Onana
/ L. Bogarde
78'
82'
T. Heggem
/
N. Casale
⚽E. Konsa
· ast. T. Abraham
89'
Pre-match prediction
48.44%
Aston ←
25.52%
X
26.04%
Bologna
we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa)
48.44%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.42
2.41
+0.99
1.33
0.96
-0.37
Aston Villa dominated by xG (2.41 vs 0.96).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
E. Martínez
G
E. Martínez
G
12
L. Digne
1 👟
D
L. Digne
1 👟
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
4
E. Konsa
1 ⚽
D
E. Konsa
1 ⚽
D
2
M. Cash
D
M. Cash
D
8
Y. Tielemans
74'
M
Y. Tielemans
74'
M
24
Amadou Onana
78'
M
Amadou Onana
78'
M
10
E. Buendía
1 ⚽
M
E. Buendía
1 ⚽
M
27
M. Rogers
1 ⚽
1 👟
74'
M
M. Rogers
1 ⚽
1 👟
74'
M
7
J. McGinn
1 👟
64'
M
J. McGinn
1 👟
64'
M
11
O. Watkins
1 ⚽
64'
F
O. Watkins
1 ⚽
64'
F
Bench
21
Douglas Luiz
16'
M
Douglas Luiz
16'
M
22
I. Maatsen
D
I. Maatsen
D
19
Jadon Sancho
16'
F
Jadon Sancho
16'
F
26
L. Bogarde
12'
M
L. Bogarde
12'
M
18
T. Abraham
1 👟
26'
F
T. Abraham
1 👟
26'
F
5
T. Mings
D
T. Mings
D
3
V. Lindelöf
D
V. Lindelöf
D
13
F. Ravaglia
G
F. Ravaglia
G
17
João Mário
45'
D
João Mário
45'
D
16
N. Casale
82'
D
N. Casale
82'
D
41
D
33
Juan Miranda
D
Juan Miranda
D
6
N. Moro
M
N. Moro
M
8
R. Freuler
45'
M
R. Freuler
45'
M
11
Jonathan Rowe
M
Jonathan Rowe
M
19
L. Ferguson
M
L. Ferguson
M
10
F. Bernardeschi
45'
M
F. Bernardeschi
45'
M
9
S. Castro
76'
F
S. Castro
76'
F
Bench
21
J. Odgaard
14'
F
J. Odgaard
14'
F
28
N. Cambiaghi
F
N. Cambiaghi
F
20
N. Zortea
45'
D
N. Zortea
45'
D
7
R. Orsolini
45'
F
R. Orsolini
45'
F
23
S. Sohm
45'
M
S. Sohm
45'
M
4
T. Pobega
M
T. Pobega
M
Best on the pitch
M. Rogers
M · Aston
8.50
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 20 pass
L. Digne
D · Aston
8.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 27 pass
E. Konsa
D · Aston
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 34 pass
E. Buendía
M · Aston
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 22 pass
Amadou Onana
M · Aston
7.70
· 24 pass
O. Watkins
F · Aston
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 12 pass
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Martínez | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 28% | — | — | — |
| L. Digne | D | 90 | 8.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 27 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 33% | — | — | — |
| E. Konsa | D | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 34 | 31% | — | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 78 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 90 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 22 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 74 | 8.50 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 16% | — | — | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 64 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 15 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| O. Watkins | F | 64 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Jadon Sancho | F | 16 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| L. Bogarde | M | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Abraham | F | 26 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 4 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
Bologna — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Ravaglia | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| João Mário | D | 45 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| N. Casale | D | 82 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 48 | 43% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 46 | 41% | 4 | — | — | |
| Juan Miranda | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Moro | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 55% | — | — | — |
| R. Freuler | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Rowe | M | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Ferguson | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 35 | 32% | — | — | — |
| F. Bernardeschi | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| S. Castro | F | 76 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| J. Odgaard | F | 14 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| N. Zortea | D | 45 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | — | — | — |
| R. Orsolini | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Sohm | M | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Bologna?
The final score was Aston Villa 4–0 Bologna.
What did the model predict before Aston Villa vs Bologna?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Aston Villa win, 25% to a draw, and 26% to an Bologna win.