Europa League
· Semi-finals
May 07, 2026 21:00
O. Watkins
(ast. E. Buendia)
36'
E. Buendia
57'
(pen.)
J. McGinn
(ast. O. Watkins)
77'
J. McGinn
(ast. M. Rogers)
80'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Aston Villa a 45% win probability (draw 23%, Nottingham Forest 31%). The final result was Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham Forest. In 3 previous meetings, Aston Villa have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Nottingham Forest.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
5
10
Shots on target
2
2.50
Actual xG
0.61
2
Saves
6
51%
Possession
49%
6
Corners
2
8
Tackles
14
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
18'
Morato
⚽O. Watkins
· ast. E. Buendia
36'
45'+3
Cunha
46'
R. Yates
/
J. McAtee
⚽E. Buendia
(pen.)
57'
71'
D. Bakwa
/
Morato
71'
L. Lucca
/
C. Wood
V. Lindelof
/ L. Bogarde
74'
⚽J. McGinn
· ast. O. Watkins
77'
⚽J. McGinn
· ast. M. Rogers
80'
E. Buendia
/ J. Sancho
86'
88'
Murillo
/
Cunha
88'
J. Sinclair
/
O. Hutchinson
J. McGinn
/ L. Bailey
90'
M. Rogers
/ Douglas Luiz
90'
P. Torres
/ T. Mings
90'
Pre-match prediction
45.15%
Aston ←
23.59%
X
31.25%
Nottingham
we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa)
45.15%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.68
2.50
+0.82
1.49
0.61
-0.88
Aston Villa dominated by xG (2.50 vs 0.61).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
Emiliano Martínez
G
Emiliano Martínez
G
12
Lucas Digne
D
Lucas Digne
D
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
4
Ezri Konsa
D
Ezri Konsa
D
2
Matty Cash
D
Matty Cash
D
8
Y. Tielemans
M
Y. Tielemans
M
3
Victor Lindelöf
74'
M
Victor Lindelöf
74'
M
10
E. Buendía
1 ⚽
1 👟
86'
M
E. Buendía
1 ⚽
1 👟
86'
M
27
M. Rogers
1 👟
M
M. Rogers
1 👟
M
7
J. McGinn
2 ⚽
M
J. McGinn
2 ⚽
M
11
O. Watkins
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
O. Watkins
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
21
Douglas Luiz
2'
M
Douglas Luiz
2'
M
22
Ian Maatsen
D
Ian Maatsen
D
19
Jadon Sancho
6'
F
Jadon Sancho
6'
F
26
Lamare Bogarde
18'
M
Lamare Bogarde
18'
M
18
Tammy Abraham
F
Tammy Abraham
F
5
Tyrone Mings
2'
D
Tyrone Mings
2'
D
27
G
3
Neco Williams
D
Neco Williams
D
4
Morato
71'
D
Morato
71'
D
31
Nikola Milenković
D
Nikola Milenković
D
23
Jair
88'
D
Jair
88'
D
24
James McAtee
45'
M
James McAtee
45'
M
8
Elliot Anderson
M
Elliot Anderson
M
16
Nicolás Domínguez
M
Nicolás Domínguez
M
21
Omari Hutchinson
88'
M
Omari Hutchinson
88'
M
19
Igor Jesus
F
Igor Jesus
F
11
Chris Wood
71'
F
Chris Wood
71'
F
Bench
29
Dilane Bakwa
21'
F
Dilane Bakwa
21'
F
14
D. Ndoye
F
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
M
10
M. Gibbs-White
M
M. Gibbs-White
M
5
Murillo
4'
D
22
Ryan Yates
47'
M
Ryan Yates
47'
M
Best on the pitch
E. Buendía
M · Aston
9.50
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 30 pass
J. McGinn
M · Aston
8.70
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 24 pass
Pau Torres
D · Aston
7.30
1 shots
· 40 pass
M. Rogers
M · Aston
7.20
1 👟
1 shots
· 24 pass
O. Watkins
F · Aston
7.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 20 pass
Ezri Konsa
D · Aston
7.00
· 58 pass
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Digne | D | 92 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 92 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 58 | 57% | 1 | — | — |
| Matty Cash | D | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 50 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 44 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Victor Lindelöf | M | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | — | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 86 | 9.50 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 24 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 90 | 8.70 | 2 | — | 3 | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| O. Watkins | F | 92 | 7.20 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jadon Sancho | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lamare Bogarde | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Tyrone Mings | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 34 | 25% | — | — | — | |
| Neco Williams | D | 92 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 29 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Morato | D | 71 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 24% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Nikola Milenković | D | 92 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Jair | D | 88 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | 1 | 1 | — |
| James McAtee | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 92 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 55 | 49% | 2 | — | — |
| Nicolás Domínguez | M | 92 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | M | 88 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Chris Wood | F | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Dilane Bakwa | F | 21 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Murillo | D | 4 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Ryan Yates | M | 47 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 17% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The final score was Aston Villa 4–0 Nottingham Forest.
What did the model predict before Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The model assigned 45% probability to a Aston Villa win, 23% to a draw, and 31% to an Nottingham Forest win.