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La Liga · Regular Season - 30 April 04, 2026 23:00
Atletico Madrid
#4 · 66 pts
1 – 2
Final score
Barcelona
#1 · 91 pts
G. Simeone (ast. C. Lenglet) 39'
42' (ast. D. Olmo) M. Rashford
87' R. Lewandowski

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 47% win probability (draw 20%, Atletico Madrid 32%). The final result was Atletico Madrid 1–2 Barcelona. In 5 previous meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 3 wins for Barcelona.

Match statistics
6
Total shots
14
2
Shots on target
8
0.92
Actual xG
2.22
6
Saves
1
33%
Possession
67%
1
Corners
9
30
Tackles
10
6
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
Nicolás González
22'
⚽G. Simeone · ast. C. Lenglet
39'
40'
M. Bernal / R. Araujo ↕
42'
ast. D. Olmo · M. Rashford⚽
45'+6
Nicolás González
45'+7
Nahuel Molina
45'
Koke
45'
45'
Fermín López
↕ Koke / M. Ruggeri
46'
46'
F. Torres / Fermín ↕
49'
Juan Musso
50'
50'
Gerard Martín
Clément Lenglet
53'
↕ G. Simeone / A. Sorloth
61'
↕ A. Baena / J. M. Gimenez
61'
↕ A. Griezmann / J. Morcillo
61'
62'
J. Kounde / ↕
↕ C. Lenglet / T. Seidu
68'
78'
Gavi / E. Garcia ↕
79'
R. Lewandowski / M. Rashford ↕
87'
R. Lewandowski⚽
Taufik Seidu
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
32.12%
Atletico
20.54%
X
47.34%
Barcelona ←
we assigned to the actual result (Barcelona) 47.34% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Atletico
1.63
0.92
-0.71
Barcelona
2.22
2.22
+0.0
Barcelona dominated by xG (2.22 vs 0.92). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 36 91
2 Real Madrid Real Madrid 36 80
3 Villarreal Villarreal 36 69
4 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 36 66
5 Real Betis Real Betis 36 57
6 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 36 50
7 Getafe Getafe 36 48
8 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 36 45
9 Athletic Club Athletic Club 36 44
10 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 36 44
11 Valencia Valencia 36 43
12 Sevilla Sevilla 36 43
13 Osasuna Osasuna 36 42
14 Espanyol Espanyol 36 42
15 Girona Girona 36 40
16 Alaves Alaves 36 40
17 Elche Elche 36 39
18 Mallorca Mallorca 36 39
19 Levante Levante 36 39
20 Oviedo Oviedo 36 29
Lineups
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
1 Juan Musso Juan Musso G 7.00
23 N. González N. González 52' D 5.30
15 Clément Lenglet Clément Lenglet 1 👟 68' D 6.90
24 Robin Le Normand Robin Le Normand D 6.90
16 N. Molina N. Molina D 7.00
11 T. Almada T. Almada M 6.70
21 Obed Vargas Obed Vargas M 6.90
6 Koke Koke 45' M 6.70
20 G. Simeone G. Simeone 1 ⚽ 61' M 7.70
10 Álex Baena Álex Baena 61' F 6.90
7 Antoine Griezmann Antoine Griezmann 61' F 6.70
Bench
22 Ademola Lookman Ademola Lookman F
9 A. Sørloth A. Sørloth 29' F 6.20
17 Dávid Hancko Dávid Hancko D
19 J. Álvarez J. Álvarez F
32 Javier Boñar Javier Boñar D
47 Javi Morcillo Javi Morcillo 29' M 6.20
2
J. M. Gimenez 29' D 6.90
34 Julio Díaz Julio Díaz M
3 Matteo Ruggeri Matteo Ruggeri 45' D 6.50
28
Taufik Seidu 22' M 6.20
Barcelona Barcelona 4-2-3-1
13
G 6.60
2 João Cancelo João Cancelo D 6.70
18 Gerard Martín Gerard Martín D 6.60
5 Pau Cubarsí Paredes Pau Cubarsí Paredes D 7.00
4 Ronald Araújo Ronald Araújo 40' D 6.30
8 Pedri Pedri M 7.20
24 Eric García Eric García 78' M 6.90
14 M. Rashford M. Rashford 1 ⚽ 79' M 7.30
16 Fermín Fermín 45' M 6.60
10 Lamine Yamal Lamine Yamal M 6.90
20 Dani Olmo Dani Olmo 1 👟 F 6.90
Bench
3 Alejandro Balde Alejandro Balde D
7 Ferran Torres Ferran Torres 45' F 6.20
23 J. Koundé J. Koundé 28' D 6.90
17 Marc Casadó Marc Casadó M
6 Pablo Gavi Pablo Gavi 12' M 6.90
19 R. Bardghji R. Bardghji F
9 R. Lewandowski R. Lewandowski 1 ⚽ 11' F 6.90
Best on the pitch
G. Simeone
G. Simeone
M · Atletico
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 18 pass
M. Rashford
M. Rashford
M · Barcelona
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 33 pass
Pedri
Pedri
M · Barcelona
7.20
1 shots · 91 pass
Juan Musso
Juan Musso
G · Atletico
7.00
· 29 pass
N. Molina
N. Molina
D · Atletico
7.00
1 shots · 39 pass
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
D · Barcelona
7.00
· 84 pass
Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Juan Musso G 90 7.00 — — — 29 17% — 1 —
N. González D 52 5.30 — — — 16 13% 1 1 1
Clément Lenglet D 68 6.90 — 1 — 45 40% 1 1 —
Robin Le Normand D 90 6.90 — — — 32 30% 4 — —
N. Molina D 90 7.00 — — 1 39 33% 6 1 —
T. Almada M 90 6.70 — — — 27 22% 4 — —
Obed Vargas M 90 6.90 — — — 22 16% 3 — —
Koke M 45 6.70 — — 1 30 25% 3 1 —
G. Simeone M 61 7.70 1 — 1 18 13% 2 — —
Álex Baena F 61 6.90 — — 1 10 9% 2 — —
Antoine Griezmann F 61 6.70 — — 2 17 15% 1 — —
A. Sørloth F 29 6.20 — — — 3 2% — — —
Javi Morcillo M 29 6.20 — — — 4 3% 1 — —
J. M. Gimenez D 29 6.90 — — — 1 — 2 — —
Matteo Ruggeri D 45 6.50 — — — 10 7% — — —
Taufik Seidu M 22 6.20 — — — 4 2% — 1 —
Barcelona Barcelona — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.60 — — — 33 32% — — —
João Cancelo D 90 6.70 — — 1 48 43% 2 — —
Gerard Martín D 90 6.60 — — — 72 67% — 1 —
Pau Cubarsí Paredes D 90 7.00 — — — 84 79% — — —
Ronald Araújo D 40 6.30 — — — 30 28% 1 — —
Pedri M 90 7.20 — — 1 91 84% 2 — —
Eric García M 78 6.90 — — — 42 42% 2 — —
M. Rashford M 79 7.30 1 — 2 33 30% — — —
Fermín M 45 6.60 — — 2 16 15% 1 1 —
Lamine Yamal M 90 6.90 — — 4 69 54% — — —
Dani Olmo F 90 6.90 — 1 — 39 34% 1 — —
Ferran Torres F 45 6.20 — — 3 8 8% — — —
J. Koundé D 28 6.90 — — — 35 33% 1 — —
Pablo Gavi M 12 6.90 — — — 11 10% — — —
R. Lewandowski F 11 6.90 1 — 1 5 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
The final score was Atletico Madrid 1–2 Barcelona.
What did the model predict before Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Atletico Madrid win, 20% to a draw, and 47% to an Barcelona win.