← Brasileirão Série A

Atletico-MG - Mirassol

Brasileirão Série A May 16, 2026 23:30
Atletico-MG
#13 · 18 pts
vs
Mirassol
#18 · 13 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
60.41%
Win
Atletico-MG
21.35%
Draw
18.23%
Win
Mirassol
1.95
Expected xG
0.77
Model prediction
Atletico-MG
60.41%
Probability
33.3%
1X2 accuracy · 6 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Atletico-MG a 60% win probability, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Mirassol. Expected goals are 2.0 for Atletico-MG and 0.8 for Mirassol (total 2.7), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 12.9% probability.

Score Matrix
↕ Atletico-MG Mirassol →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.6% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% —
1 12.9% 9.9% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% —
2 12.6% 9.6% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% —
3 8.2% 6.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% —
4 4.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% —
5 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% — —
Recent form
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
D Botafogo 1–1
W Cruzeiro 1–3
L Coritiba 2–0
L Santos 1–0
W Atletico Paranaense 2–1
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 28%
Mirassol Mirassol
D Chapecoense-sc 1–1
W Corinthians 2–1
L Sao Paulo 1–0
W Internacional 1–2
L Bahia 1–2
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 12%
Playing profile
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Attack
42
Defence
70
Form
54
Mirassol Mirassol
Attack
31
Defence
60
Form
38
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 15 34
2 Flamengo Flamengo 14 30
3 Fluminense Fluminense 15 27
4 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 15 24
5 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 15 23
6 Bahia Bahia 14 22
7 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 15 20
8 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 15 20
9 Coritiba Coritiba 15 20
10 Vitoria Vitoria 14 19
11 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 15 19
12 Botafogo Botafogo 14 18
13 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 15 18
14 Internacional Internacional 15 18
15 Santos Santos 15 18
16 Corinthians Corinthians 15 18
17 Gremio Gremio 15 17
18 Mirassol Mirassol 14 13
19 Remo Remo 15 12
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 14 9
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
The model gives Atletico-MG a 60% win probability, 21% for a draw, and 18% for an Mirassol win.
How many goals are expected in Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
Expected goals: Atletico-MG 2.0, Mirassol 0.8 (total 2.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.9%.