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← Brasileirão Série A
Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 16 May 16, 2026 23:30
Atletico-MG
#9 · 24 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Mirassol
#19 · 16 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Atletico-MG
A. Minda (ast. Bernard) 17'
Maycon 61' (pen.)
M. Cisse 82'
40' (ast. Reinaldo) Willian Machado
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico-MG a 60% win probability (draw 21%, Mirassol 18%). The final result was Atletico-MG 3–1 Mirassol.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
6
6
Shots on target
3
2.54
Actual xG
0.87
1
Saves
3
49%
Possession
51%
5
Corners
6
13
Tackles
15
Match Events
⚽A. Minda · ast. Bernard
17'
40'
ast. Reinaldo · Willian Machado⚽
57'
Jose Aldo / Alesson ↕
57'
Shaylon / Carlos Eduardo ↕
⚽Maycon (pen.)
61'
63'
Everton Galdino / Denilson ↕
63'
Tiquinho Soares / Edson Carioca ↕
↕ Cuello / M. Cisse
72'
↕ A. Minda / Lyanco
79'
⚽M. Cisse
82'
↕ M. Cassierra / Caua
84'
86'
A. Galeano / Eduardo ↕
87'
Reinaldo
Pre-match prediction
60.41%
Atletico-MG ←
21.36%
X
18.23%
Mirassol
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Atletico-MG) 60.41% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Atletico-MG
1.95
2.54
+0.59
Mirassol
0.77
0.87
+0.1
Atletico-MG dominated by xG (2.54 vs 0.87). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 18 41
2 Flamengo Flamengo 17 34
3 Fluminense Fluminense 18 31
4 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 18 30
5 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 18 29
6 Bahia Bahia 17 26
7 Coritiba Coritiba 18 26
8 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 18 25
9 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 18 24
10 Corinthians Corinthians 18 24
11 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 18 24
12 Botafogo Botafogo 17 22
13 Vitoria Vitoria 17 22
14 Internacional Internacional 18 21
15 Santos Santos 18 21
16 Gremio Gremio 18 21
17 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 18 20
18 Remo Remo 18 18
19 Mirassol Mirassol 17 16
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 17 9
Lineups
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 3-4-2-1
22 Everson Everson G 6.90
6 J. Alonso J. Alonso D 7.70
4 Ruan Tressoldi Ruan Tressoldi D 6.70
2 Natanael Natanael D 6.90
16 Renan Lodi Renan Lodi M 8.20
21 A. Franco A. Franco M 6.70
8 Maycon Maycon 1 ⚽ M 6.90
28 T. Cuello T. Cuello 72' M 7.00
11 Bernard Bernard 1 👟 F 7.30
27 A. Minda A. Minda 1 ⚽ 79' F 7.60
9 Mateo Cassierra Mateo Cassierra 84' F 6.50
Bench
5 Alexsander Alexsander M
23 A. Preciado A. Preciado D
29 Cauã Campos Soares Cauã Campos Soares 11' F 6.70
92 Dudu Dudu F
1 Gabriel Delfim Gabriel Delfim G
17 Igor Gomes Igor Gomes M
36 Kauã Pascini Kauã Pascini D
13 Lyanco Lyanco 11' D 6.60
39 Mamady Cissé Mamady Cissé 1 ⚽ 18' M 7.70
19 Reinier Reinier M
25 Tomás Pérez Tomás Pérez M
14 Vitor Hugo Vitor Hugo D
Mirassol Mirassol 3-4-2-1
22 Walter Walter G 6.50
3 Willian Machado Willian Machado 1 ⚽ D 7.30
2 Lucas Oliveira Lucas Oliveira 57' D 6.30
34 João Victor João Victor D 6.70
6 Reinaldo Reinaldo 1 👟 M 7.70
8 Denilson Denilson 63' M 5.90
33 Eduardo Eduardo 85' M 6.30
20 Daniel Borges Daniel Borges M 6.90
77 Alesson Alesson F 6.60
96 Carlos Eduardo Carlos Eduardo 57' F 5.90
95 Edson Carioca Edson Carioca 63' F 6.20
Bench
23 Alex Muralha Alex Muralha G
27 Antonio Galeano Antonio Galeano 10' F 6.50
10 Chico Chico M
17 Everton Galdino Everton Galdino 27' F 6.20
16 Igor Cariús Igor Cariús D
21 José Aldo José Aldo 33' M 6.30
26 Lucas Mugni Lucas Mugni M
97 Rodrigues Rodrigues D
7 Shaylon Shaylon 33' M 6.30
29 Tiquinho Soares Tiquinho Soares 27' F 6.60
12 Victor Luis Victor Luis D
5 Yuri Yuri M
Best on the pitch
Renan Lodi
Renan Lodi
M · Atletico-MG
8.20
1 shots · 36 pass
Mamady Cissé
Mamady Cissé
M · Atletico-MG
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots · 9 pass
J. Alonso
J. Alonso
D · Atletico-MG
7.70
· 51 pass
Reinaldo
Reinaldo
M · Mirassol
7.70
1 👟
1 shots · 50 pass
A. Minda
A. Minda
F · Atletico-MG
7.60
1 ⚽
4 shots · 20 pass
Willian Machado
Willian Machado
D · Mirassol
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 54 pass
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Everson G 90 6.90 — — — 42 22% — — —
J. Alonso D 90 7.70 — — — 51 47% 3 — —
Ruan Tressoldi D 90 6.70 — — — 30 28% — — —
Natanael D 90 6.90 — — 1 50 45% 3 — —
Renan Lodi M 90 8.20 — — 1 36 32% 2 — —
A. Franco M 90 6.70 — — — 27 25% 1 — —
Maycon M 90 6.90 1 — 2 29 24% — — —
T. Cuello M 72 7.00 — — 1 37 29% 1 — —
Bernard F 90 7.30 — 1 1 36 36% — — —
A. Minda F 79 7.60 1 — 4 20 17% 1 — —
Mateo Cassierra F 84 6.50 — — 1 18 16% 1 — —
Cauã Campos Soares F 11 6.70 — — — 2 1% 1 — —
Lyanco D 11 6.60 — — — 2 2% — — —
Mamady Cissé M 18 7.70 1 — 2 9 7% — — —
Mirassol Mirassol — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Walter G 90 6.50 — — — 26 21% — — —
Willian Machado D 90 7.30 1 — 1 54 47% 2 — —
Lucas Oliveira D 57 6.30 — — — 26 22% 1 — —
João Victor D 90 6.70 — — — 42 36% 1 — —
Reinaldo M 90 7.70 — 1 1 50 38% 3 — —
Denilson M 63 5.90 — — — 29 23% 1 — —
Eduardo M 85 6.30 — — — 33 29% 2 — —
Daniel Borges M 90 6.90 — — 1 28 23% 2 — —
Alesson F 90 6.60 — — — 33 28% 2 — —
Carlos Eduardo F 57 5.90 — — 1 3 1% — — —
Edson Carioca F 63 6.20 — — — 10 7% — — —
Antonio Galeano F 10 6.50 — — — 4 3% — — —
Everton Galdino F 27 6.20 — — — 13 9% — — —
José Aldo M 33 6.30 — — — 30 27% 1 — —
Shaylon M 33 6.30 — — — 16 14% — — —
Tiquinho Soares F 27 6.60 — — 2 4 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
The final score was Atletico-MG 3–1 Mirassol.
What did the model predict before Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
The model assigned 60% probability to a Atletico-MG win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Mirassol win.