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← Brasileirão Série A
Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 16 May 16, 2026 23:30
Atletico-MG
#7 · 40 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Mirassol
#15 · 32 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Atletico-MG
A. Minda (ast. Bernard) 17'
Maycon 61' (pen.)
M. Cisse 82'
40' (ast. Reinaldo) Willian Machado
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico-MG a 60% win probability (draw 21%, Mirassol 18%). The final result was Atletico-MG 3–1 Mirassol.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
6
6
Shots on target
3
2.54
Actual xG
0.87
1
Saves
3
49%
Possession
51%
5
Corners
6
13
Tackles
15
Match Events
⚽A. Minda · ast. Bernard
17'
40'
ast. Reinaldo · Willian Machado⚽
57'
Jose Aldo / Alesson ↕
57'
Shaylon / Carlos Eduardo ↕
⚽Maycon (pen.)
61'
63'
Everton Galdino / Denilson ↕
63'
Tiquinho Soares / Edson Carioca ↕
↕ Cuello / M. Cisse
72'
↕ A. Minda / Lyanco
79'
⚽M. Cisse
82'
↕ M. Cassierra / Caua
84'
86'
A. Galeano / Eduardo ↕
87'
Reinaldo
Pre-match prediction
60.41%
Atletico-MG ←
21.36%
X
18.23%
Mirassol
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Atletico-MG) 60.41% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Atletico-MG
1.95
2.54
+0.59
Mirassol
0.77
0.87
+0.1
Atletico-MG dominated by xG (2.54 vs 0.87). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Flamengo Flamengo 28 60
2 Palmeiras Palmeiras 28 57
3 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 28 49
4 Fluminense Fluminense 28 48
5 Bahia Bahia 28 46
6 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 28 45
7 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 27 40
8 Santos Santos 27 38
9 Coritiba Coritiba 28 38
10 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 27 36
11 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 27 36
12 Botafogo Botafogo 28 35
13 Vitoria Vitoria 28 33
14 Corinthians Corinthians 28 32
15 Mirassol Mirassol 28 32
16 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 27 31
17 Gremio Gremio 28 29
18 Internacional Internacional 28 28
19 Remo Remo 28 23
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 27 18
Lineups
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 3-4-2-1
22 Everson Everson G 6.90
6 J. Alonso J. Alonso D 7.70
4 Ruan Tressoldi Ruan Tressoldi D 6.70
2 Natanael Natanael D 6.90
16 Renan Lodi Renan Lodi M 8.20
21 Alan Franco Alan Franco M 6.70
8 Maycon Maycon 1 ⚽ M 6.90
28 T. Cuello T. Cuello 72' M 7.00
11 Bernard Bernard 1 👟 F 7.30
27 Alan Minda Alan Minda 1 ⚽ 79' F 7.60
9 M. Cassierra M. Cassierra 84' F 6.50
Bench
5 Alexsander Alexsander M
23 Ángelo Preciado Ángelo Preciado D
29 Cauã Campos Soares Cauã Campos Soares 11' F 6.70
92 Dudu Dudu F
1 Gabriel Delfim Gabriel Delfim G
17 Igor Gomes Igor Gomes M
36 K. Pascini K. Pascini D
13 Lyanco Lyanco 11' D 6.60
39 Mamady Cisse Mamady Cisse 1 ⚽ 18' M 7.70
19 Reinier Reinier M
25 T. Pérez T. Pérez M
14 Vitor Hugo Vitor Hugo D
Mirassol Mirassol 3-4-2-1
22 Walter Walter G 6.50
3 Willian Machado Willian Machado 1 ⚽ D 7.30
2 Lucas Oliveira Lucas Oliveira 57' D 6.30
34 João Victor João Victor D 6.70
6 Reinaldo Reinaldo 1 👟 M 7.70
8 Denilson Denilson 63' M 5.90
33 Eduardo Eduardo 85' M 6.30
20 Daniel Borges Daniel Borges M 6.90
77 Alesson Alesson F 6.60
96 Carlos Eduardo Carlos Eduardo 57' F 5.90
95 Edson Edson 63' F 6.20
Bench
27 A. Galeano A. Galeano 10' F 6.50
23 Alex Muralha Alex Muralha G
10 Chico Chico M
17 Everton Galdino Everton Galdino 27' F 6.20
16 Igor Cariús Igor Cariús D
21 José Aldo José Aldo 33' M 6.30
26 L. Mugni L. Mugni M
97 Rodrigues Rodrigues D
7 Shaylon Shaylon 33' M 6.30
29 Tiquinho Soares Tiquinho Soares 27' F 6.60
12 Victor Luís Victor Luís D
5 Yuri Yuri M
Best on the pitch
Renan Lodi
Renan Lodi
M · Atletico-MG
8.20
1 shots · 36 pass
Mamady Cisse
Mamady Cisse
M · Atletico-MG
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots · 9 pass
J. Alonso
J. Alonso
D · Atletico-MG
7.70
· 51 pass
Reinaldo
Reinaldo
M · Mirassol
7.70
1 👟
1 shots · 50 pass
Alan Minda
Alan Minda
F · Atletico-MG
7.60
1 ⚽
4 shots · 20 pass
Willian Machado
Willian Machado
D · Mirassol
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 54 pass
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Everson G 90 6.90 — — — 42 22% — — —
J. Alonso D 90 7.70 — — — 51 47% 3 — —
Ruan Tressoldi D 90 6.70 — — — 30 28% — — —
Natanael D 90 6.90 — — 1 50 45% 3 — —
Renan Lodi M 90 8.20 — — 1 36 32% 2 — —
Alan Franco M 90 6.70 — — — 27 25% 1 — —
Maycon M 90 6.90 1 — 2 29 24% — — —
T. Cuello M 72 7.00 — — 1 37 29% 1 — —
Bernard F 90 7.30 — 1 1 36 36% — — —
Alan Minda F 79 7.60 1 — 4 20 17% 1 — —
M. Cassierra F 84 6.50 — — 1 18 16% 1 — —
Cauã Campos Soares F 11 6.70 — — — 2 1% 1 — —
Lyanco D 11 6.60 — — — 2 2% — — —
Mamady Cisse M 18 7.70 1 — 2 9 7% — — —
Mirassol Mirassol — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Walter G 90 6.50 — — — 26 21% — — —
Willian Machado D 90 7.30 1 — 1 54 47% 2 — —
Lucas Oliveira D 57 6.30 — — — 26 22% 1 — —
João Victor D 90 6.70 — — — 42 36% 1 — —
Reinaldo M 90 7.70 — 1 1 50 38% 3 — —
Denilson M 63 5.90 — — — 29 23% 1 — —
Eduardo M 85 6.30 — — — 33 29% 2 — —
Daniel Borges M 90 6.90 — — 1 28 23% 2 — —
Alesson F 90 6.60 — — — 33 28% 2 — —
Carlos Eduardo F 57 5.90 — — 1 3 1% — — —
Edson F 63 6.20 — — — 10 7% — — —
A. Galeano F 10 6.50 — — — 4 3% — — —
Everton Galdino F 27 6.20 — — — 13 9% — — —
José Aldo M 33 6.30 — — — 30 27% 1 — —
Shaylon M 33 6.30 — — — 16 14% — — —
Tiquinho Soares F 27 6.60 — — 2 4 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
The final score was Atletico-MG 3–1 Mirassol.
What did the model predict before Atletico-MG vs Mirassol?
The model assigned 60% probability to a Atletico-MG win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Mirassol win.