La Liga · Regular Season - 29 March 22, 2026 15:00

Barcelona

#1 · 91 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Rayo Vallecano

#10 · 44 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Barcelona

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 78% win probability (draw 12%, Rayo Vallecano 8%). The final result was Barcelona 1–0 Rayo Vallecano. In 1 previous meetings, Barcelona have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Rayo Vallecano.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

4

1.36

Actual xG

1.83

61%

Possession

39%

6

Corners

9

Pre-match prediction

78.38%

Barcelona ←

12.64%

X

8.98%

Rayo

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Barcelona) 78.38% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Barcelona

3.06

1.36

-1.7

Rayo

0.94

1.83

+0.89

Rayo Vallecano dominated by xG (1.83 vs 1.36). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Barcelona	36	91
2	Real Madrid	36	80
3	Villarreal	36	69
4	Atletico Madrid	36	66
5	Real Betis	36	57
6	Celta Vigo	36	50
7	Getafe	36	48
8	Real Sociedad	36	45
9	Athletic Club	36	44
10	Rayo Vallecano	36	44
11	Valencia	36	43
12	Sevilla	36	43
13	Osasuna	36	42
14	Espanyol	36	42
15	Girona	36	40
16	Alaves	36	40
17	Elche	36	39
18	Mallorca	36	39
19	Levante	36	39
20	Oviedo	36	29