La Liga · Regular Season - 29 March 22, 2026 14:00 Camp Nou, Barcelona

Barcelona

#1 · 21 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Rayo Vallecano

#12 · 8 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Barcelona

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 78% win probability (draw 12%, Rayo Vallecano 8%). The final result was Barcelona 1–0 Rayo Vallecano. In 2 previous meetings, Barcelona have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Rayo Vallecano.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

4

1.36

Actual xG

1.83

61%

Possession

39%

6

Corners

9

Pre-match prediction

78.38%

Barcelona ←

12.64%

X

8.98%

Rayo

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Barcelona) 78.38% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Barcelona

3.06

1.36

-1.7

Rayo

0.94

1.83

+0.89

Rayo Vallecano dominated by xG (1.83 vs 1.36). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	16
3	Real Betis	7	16
4	Real Madrid	7	15
5	Sevilla	7	13
6	Alaves	7	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	10
9	Villarreal	7	8
10	Athletic Club	6	8
11	Getafe	7	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	8
13	Osasuna	7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	7
15	Espanyol	7	7
16	Racing Santander	7	7
17	Levante	6	5
18	Elche	7	5
19	Valencia	7	4
20	Malaga	7	3