La Liga · Regular Season - 29 March 22, 2026 14:00 Camp Nou, Barcelona

Barcelona

#1 · 94 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Rayo Vallecano

#8 · 50 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Barcelona

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Barcelona a 78% win probability (draw 12%, Rayo Vallecano 8%). The final result was Barcelona 1–0 Rayo Vallecano. In 1 previous meetings, Barcelona have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Rayo Vallecano.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

4

1.36

Actual xG

1.83

61%

Possession

39%

6

Corners

9

Pre-match prediction

78.38%

Barcelona ←

12.64%

X

8.98%

Rayo

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Barcelona) 78.38% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Barcelona

3.06

1.36

-1.7

Rayo

0.94

1.83

+0.89

Rayo Vallecano dominated by xG (1.83 vs 1.36). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	94
2	Real Madrid	38	86
3	Villarreal	38	72
4	Atletico Madrid	38	69
5	Real Betis	38	60
6	Celta Vigo	38	54
7	Getafe	38	51
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	50
9	Valencia	38	49
10	Real Sociedad	38	46
11	Espanyol	38	46
12	Athletic Club	38	45
13	Sevilla	38	43
14	Alaves	38	43
15	Elche	38	43
16	Levante	38	42
17	Osasuna	38	42
18	Mallorca	38	42
19	Girona	38	41
20	Oviedo	38	29