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Bayern München - 1. FC Köln

Bundesliga May 16, 2026 15:30
Bayern München
#1 · 86 pts
vs
1. FC Köln
#14 · 32 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
77.96%
Win
Bayern München
11.1%
Draw
10.94%
Win
1. FC Köln
4.24
Expected xG
1.85
Model prediction
Bayern München
77.96%
Probability
67.9%
1X2 accuracy · 28 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bayern München a 77% win probability, against 11% for a draw and 10% for 1. FC Köln. Expected goals are 4.2 for Bayern München and 1.9 for 1. FC Köln (total 6.1), with a 87% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 4–1 at 5.6% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Bayern München have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for 1. FC Köln.

Score Matrix
↕ Bayern München 1. FC Köln →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% —
1 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%
2 2.0% 3.8% 3.5% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4%
3 2.9% 5.3% 4.9% 3.0% 1.4% 0.5%
4 3.0% 5.6% 5.2% 3.2% 1.5% 0.6%
5 2.6% 4.8% 4.4% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5%
Recent form
Bayern München Bayern München
W VfL Wolfsburg 0–1
D 1. FC Heidenheim 3–3
W FSV Mainz 05 3–4
W VfB Stuttgart 4–2
W FC St. Pauli 0–5
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 26%
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln
L 1. FC Heidenheim 1–3
D Union Berlin 2–2
L Bayer Leverkusen 1–2
D FC St. Pauli 1–1
W Werder Bremen 3–1
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 12%
Playing profile
Bayern München Bayern München
Attack
75
Defence
52
Form
72
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln
Attack
53
Defence
60
Form
38
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
2
Bayern München
0
Draw
0
1. FC Köln
W 14 Jan 2026 Bundesliga 3–1
W 29 Oct 2025 DFB Pokal 4–1
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln?
The model gives Bayern München a 77% win probability, 11% for a draw, and 10% for an 1. FC Köln win.
How many goals are expected in Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln?
Expected goals: Bayern München 4.2, 1. FC Köln 1.9 (total 6.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 87%.
What is the most likely score in Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln?
4–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 5.6%.