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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34 May 16, 2026 15:30
Bayern München
#5 · 4 pts
5 – 1
Final score
1. FC Köln
#14 · 3 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
H. Kane (ast. J. Kimmich) 10'
H. Kane (ast. J. Kimmich) 13'
T. Bischof (ast. L. Karl) 22'
H. Kane (ast. L. Goretzka) 69'
N. Jackson (ast. L. Diaz) 83'
18' S. El Mala
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 78% win probability (draw 10%, 1. FC Köln 10%). The final result was Bayern München 5–1 1. FC Köln. In 2 previous meetings, Bayern München have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for 1. FC Köln.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
2
2.72
Actual xG
0.90
1
Saves
2
69%
Possession
31%
5
Corners
5
21
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽H. Kane · ast. J. Kimmich
10'
⚽H. Kane · ast. J. Kimmich
13'
18'
S. El Mala⚽
⚽T. Bischof · ast. L. Karl
22'
34'
J. Schmied
K. Laimer
37'
↕ K. Laimer / J. Stanisic
46'
46'
L. Maina / J. Schmied ↕
↕ M. Neuer / J. Urbig
60'
↕ L. Karl / M. Olise
61'
69'
I. Johannesson / A. Castro-Montes ↕
⚽H. Kane · ast. L. Goretzka
69'
↕ J. Musiala / R. Guerreiro
70'
80'
J. Thielmann / S. El Mala ↕
80'
Y. Niang / M. Bulter ↕
↕ L. Goretzka / N. Jackson
83'
⚽N. Jackson · ast. L. Diaz
83'
90'+2
F. Kainz / J. Kaminski ↕
Pre-match prediction
78.56%
Bayern ←
10.94%
X
10.49%
1.
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 78.56% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Bayern
4.24
2.72
-1.52
1.
1.85
0.90
-0.95
Bayern München dominated by xG (2.72 vs 0.90). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3 9
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3 9
3 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 3 7
4 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 2 6
5 Bayern München Bayern München 2 4
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3 4
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3 4
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 3 4
9 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 3 4
10 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2 3
11 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 3 3
12 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2 3
13 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 3 3
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 2 3
15 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 3 1
16 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3 1
17 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 2 0
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 0
Lineups
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer M. Neuer 60' G 6.20
20 T. Bischof T. Bischof 1 ⚽ D 8.30
4 J. Tah J. Tah D 7.30
2 D. Upamecano D. Upamecano D 7.20
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer 45' D 6.50
8 Leon Goretzka Leon Goretzka 1 👟 83' M 7.20
6 J. Kimmich J. Kimmich 2 👟 M 8.30
14 L. Díaz L. Díaz 1 👟 M 7.20
10 J. Musiala J. Musiala 70' M 6.30
42 L. Karl L. Karl 1 👟 61' M 7.30
9 H. Kane H. Kane 3 ⚽ F 10.00
Bench
45 A. Pavlović A. Pavlović M
39 Bara Ndiaye Bara Ndiaye F
21 H. Ito H. Ito D
44 J. Stanišić J. Stanišić 48' D 6.60
40 J. Urbig J. Urbig 33' G 6.60
17 M. Olise M. Olise 32' M 7.30
11 N. Jackson N. Jackson 1 ⚽ 10' F 7.70
22 Raphaël Guerreiro Raphaël Guerreiro 23' D 6.50
26 S. Ulreich S. Ulreich G
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 5-3-2
1 M. Schwäbe M. Schwäbe G 5.50
32 K. Lund K. Lund D 6.30
39 Cenk Özkaçar Cenk Özkaçar D 5.90
22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 5.70
2 J. Schmied J. Schmied 45' D 5.70
28 S. Sebulonsen S. Sebulonsen D 5.20
17 A. Castro-Montes A. Castro-Montes 69' M 6.20
6 E. Martel E. Martel M 7.30
16 J. Kamiński J. Kamiński M 6.20
13 S. El Mala S. El Mala 1 ⚽ 80' F 8.00
30 M. Bülter M. Bülter 81' F 6.30
Bench
27 F. Chávez F. Chávez M
11 Florian Kainz Florian Kainz 1' M
18 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson 24' M 6.30
29 J. Thielmann J. Thielmann 13' M 6.20
37 L. Maina L. Maina 48' M 6.30
7 Luca Waldschmidt Luca Waldschmidt F
33 R. van den Berg R. van den Berg D
20 R. Zieler R. Zieler G
38 Y. Niang Y. Niang 12' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
H. Kane
H. Kane
F · Bayern
10.00
3 ⚽
4 shots · 19 pass
T. Bischof
T. Bischof
D · Bayern
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 82 pass
J. Kimmich
J. Kimmich
M · Bayern
8.30
2 👟
1 shots · 110 pass
S. El Mala
S. El Mala
F · 1.
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 14 pass
N. Jackson
N. Jackson
F · Bayern
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 4 pass
J. Tah
J. Tah
D · Bayern
7.30
· 78 pass
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Neuer G 60 6.20 — — — 11 10% — — —
T. Bischof D 93 8.30 1 — 1 82 70% 4 — —
J. Tah D 93 7.30 — — — 78 77% — — —
D. Upamecano D 93 7.20 — — — 87 83% 2 — —
K. Laimer D 45 6.50 — — — 44 42% 4 1 —
Leon Goretzka M 83 7.20 — 1 — 70 61% 2 — —
J. Kimmich M 93 8.30 — 2 1 110 101% 2 — —
L. Díaz M 93 7.20 — 1 3 50 43% — — —
J. Musiala M 70 6.30 — — 1 22 18% 3 — —
L. Karl M 61 7.30 — 1 2 58 54% 1 — —
H. Kane F 93 10.00 3 — 4 19 16% 2 — —
J. Stanišić D 48 6.60 — — — 33 30% 1 — —
J. Urbig G 33 6.60 — — — 10 10% — — —
M. Olise M 32 7.30 — — — 24 19% — — —
N. Jackson F 10 7.70 1 — 1 4 4% — — —
Raphaël Guerreiro D 23 6.50 — — 1 15 14% — — —
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Schwäbe G 93 5.50 — — — 57 44% — — —
K. Lund D 93 6.30 — — — 29 23% 2 — —
Cenk Özkaçar D 93 5.90 — — — 42 40% 2 — —
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 93 5.70 — — — 43 35% — — —
J. Schmied D 45 5.70 — — — 5 5% — 1 —
S. Sebulonsen D 93 5.20 — — — 14 11% — — —
A. Castro-Montes M 69 6.20 — — — 24 15% 1 — —
E. Martel M 93 7.30 — — 1 39 33% 3 — —
J. Kamiński M 92 6.20 — — — 17 13% 1 — —
S. El Mala F 80 8.00 1 — 1 14 11% 2 — —
M. Bülter F 81 6.30 — — 1 21 18% 2 — —
Florian Kainz M 1 — — — — — — — — —
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson M 24 6.30 — — 1 3 3% — — —
J. Thielmann M 13 6.20 — — — 2 2% — — —
L. Maina M 48 6.30 — — 1 14 12% — — —
Y. Niang F 12 6.50 — — — 2 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln?
The final score was Bayern München 5–1 1. FC Köln.
What did the model predict before Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln?
The model assigned 78% probability to a Bayern München win, 10% to a draw, and 10% to an 1. FC Köln win.