Bayern München 5–1 1. FC Köln — pre-match prediction — Bundesliga — May 16, 2026

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34 May 16, 2026 15:30

Bayern München

#1 · 0 pts

5 – 1

Final score

1. FC Köln

#14 · 0 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München

H. Kane (ast. J. Kimmich) 10'

H. Kane (ast. J. Kimmich) 13'

T. Bischof (ast. L. Karl) 22'

H. Kane (ast. L. Goretzka) 69'

N. Jackson (ast. L. Diaz) 83'

18' S. El Mala

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 78% win probability (draw 10%, 1. FC Köln 10%). The final result was Bayern München 5–1 1. FC Köln. In 2 previous meetings, Bayern München have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for 1. FC Köln.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.72

Actual xG

0.90

Saves

69%

Possession

31%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽H. Kane · ast. J. Kimmich

10'

⚽H. Kane · ast. J. Kimmich

13'

18'

S. El Mala⚽

⚽T. Bischof · ast. L. Karl

22'

34'

J. Schmied

K. Laimer

37'

↕ K. Laimer / J. Stanisic

46'

L. Maina / J. Schmied ↕

↕ M. Neuer / J. Urbig

60'

↕ L. Karl / M. Olise

61'

69'

I. Johannesson / A. Castro-Montes ↕

⚽H. Kane · ast. L. Goretzka

69'

↕ J. Musiala / R. Guerreiro

70'

80'

J. Thielmann / S. El Mala ↕

80'

Y. Niang / M. Bulter ↕

↕ L. Goretzka / N. Jackson

83'

⚽N. Jackson · ast. L. Diaz

83'

90'+2

F. Kainz / J. Kaminski ↕

Pre-match prediction

78.56%

Bayern ←

10.94%

10.49%

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 78.56% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Bayern

4.24

2.72

-1.52

1.85

0.90

-0.95

Bayern München dominated by xG (2.72 vs 0.90). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0

Lineups

Bayern München 4-2-3-1

Manuel Neuer 60' G 6.20

Tom Bischof 1 ⚽ D 8.30

Jonathan Tah D 7.30

D. Upamecano D 7.20

K. Laimer 45' D 6.50

Leon Goretzka 1 👟 83' M 7.20

J. Kimmich 2 👟 M 8.30

L. Díaz 1 👟 M 7.20

J. Musiala 70' M 6.30

Lennart Karl 1 👟 61' M 7.30

H. Kane 3 ⚽ F 10.00

Bench

A. Pavlović M

Bara Sapoko Ndiaye F

Hiroki Itō D

Jonas Urbig 33' G 6.60

Josip Stanišić 48' D 6.60

M. Olise 32' M 7.30

N. Jackson 1 ⚽ 10' F 7.70

Raphaël Guerreiro 23' D 6.50

Sven Ulreich G

1. FC Köln 5-3-2

Marvin Schwäbe G 5.50

Kristoffer Lund D 6.30

Cenk Özkaçar D 5.90

Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 5.70

Joel Schmied 45' D 5.70

Sebastian Sebulonsen D 5.20

Alessio Castro-Montes 69' M 6.20

E. Martel M 7.30

Jakub Kamiński M 6.20

S. El Mala 1 ⚽ 80' F 8.00

Marius Bülter 81' F 6.30

Bench

Felipe Chávez M

Florian Kainz 1' M

Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 24' M 6.30

Jan Uwe Thielmann 13' M 6.20

Linton Maina 48' M 6.30

Luca Waldschmidt F

Rav van den Berg D

Ron-Robert Zieler G

Youssoupha Niang 12' F 6.50

Best on the pitch

H. Kane

F · Bayern

10.00

3 ⚽

4 shots · 19 pass

Tom Bischof

D · Bayern

8.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 82 pass

J. Kimmich

M · Bayern

8.30

2 👟

1 shots · 110 pass

S. El Mala

F · 1.

8.00

1 ⚽

1 shots · 14 pass

N. Jackson

F · Bayern

7.70

1 ⚽

1 shots · 4 pass

Jonathan Tah

D · Bayern

7.30

· 78 pass

Bayern München — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Manuel Neuer	G	60	6.20	—	—	—	11	10%	—	—	—
Tom Bischof	D	93	8.30	1	—	1	82	70%	4	—	—
Jonathan Tah	D	93	7.30	—	—	—	78	77%	—	—	—
D. Upamecano	D	93	7.20	—	—	—	87	83%	2	—	—
K. Laimer	D	45	6.50	—	—	—	44	42%	4	1	—
Leon Goretzka	M	83	7.20	—	1	—	70	61%	2	—	—
J. Kimmich	M	93	8.30	—	2	1	110	101%	2	—	—
L. Díaz	M	93	7.20	—	1	3	50	43%	—	—	—
J. Musiala	M	70	6.30	—	—	1	22	18%	3	—	—
Lennart Karl	M	61	7.30	—	1	2	58	54%	1	—	—
H. Kane	F	93	10.00	3	—	4	19	16%	2	—	—
Jonas Urbig	G	33	6.60	—	—	—	10	10%	—	—	—
Josip Stanišić	D	48	6.60	—	—	—	33	30%	1	—	—
M. Olise	M	32	7.30	—	—	—	24	19%	—	—	—
N. Jackson	F	10	7.70	1	—	1	4	4%	—	—	—
Raphaël Guerreiro	D	23	6.50	—	—	1	15	14%	—	—	—

1. FC Köln — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Marvin Schwäbe	G	93	5.50	—	—	—	57	44%	—	—	—
Kristoffer Lund	D	93	6.30	—	—	—	29	23%	2	—	—
Cenk Özkaçar	D	93	5.90	—	—	—	42	40%	2	—	—
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey	D	93	5.70	—	—	—	43	35%	—	—	—
Joel Schmied	D	45	5.70	—	—	—	5	5%	—	1	—
Sebastian Sebulonsen	D	93	5.20	—	—	—	14	11%	—	—	—
Alessio Castro-Montes	M	69	6.20	—	—	—	24	15%	1	—	—
E. Martel	M	93	7.30	—	—	1	39	33%	3	—	—
Jakub Kamiński	M	92	6.20	—	—	—	17	13%	1	—	—
S. El Mala	F	80	8.00	1	—	1	14	11%	2	—	—
Marius Bülter	F	81	6.30	—	—	1	21	18%	2	—	—
Florian Kainz	M	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson	M	24	6.30	—	—	1	3	3%	—	—	—
Jan Uwe Thielmann	M	13	6.20	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—
Linton Maina	M	48	6.30	—	—	1	14	12%	—	—	—
Youssoupha Niang	F	12	6.50	—	—	—	2	1%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln?

The final score was Bayern München 5–1 1. FC Köln.

What did the model predict before Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln?

The model assigned 78% probability to a Bayern München win, 10% to a draw, and 10% to an 1. FC Köln win.