Champions League
· Semi-finals
May 06, 2026 21:00
H. Kane
(ast. A. Davies)
90'+4
3'
(ast. K. Kvaratskhelia)
O. Dembele
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 50% win probability (draw 19%, Paris Saint Germain 30%). The final result was Bayern München 1–1 Paris Saint Germain. In 2 previous meetings, Bayern München have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Paris Saint Germain.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
7
1.40
Actual xG
0.95
6
Saves
4
65%
Possession
35%
1
Corners
8
8
Tackles
25
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
3'
ast. K. Kvaratskhelia ·
O. Dembele⚽
8'
N. Mendes
J. Tah
33'
45'+3
K. Kvaratskhelia
65'
B. Barcola
/
O. Dembele
J. Stanisic
/ A. Davies
67'
J. Tah
/ Kim Min-Jae
68'
76'
L. Hernandez
/
D. Doue
76'
L. Beraldo
/
F. Ruiz
L. Diaz
78'
J. Musiala
/ N. Jackson
79'
D. Upamecano
/ L. Karl
85'
85'
S. Mayulu
/
N. Mendes
86'
Marquinhos
⚽H. Kane
· ast. A. Davies
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
50.27%
Bayern
19.54%
X ←
30.18%
Paris
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
19.54%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.29
1.40
-0.89
1.93
0.95
-0.98
Bayern München dominated by xG (1.40 vs 0.95).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
M. Neuer
G
44
J. Stanisic
67'
D
4
Jonathan Tah
68'
D
2
D. Upamecano
85'
D
D. Upamecano
85'
D
27
K. Laimer
D
K. Laimer
D
45
A. Pavlović
M
A. Pavlović
M
6
J. Kimmich
M
J. Kimmich
M
14
L. Díaz
M
L. Díaz
M
10
J. Musiala
79'
M
J. Musiala
79'
M
17
M. Olise
M
M. Olise
M
9
H. Kane
1 ⚽
F
H. Kane
1 ⚽
F
Bench
19
A. Davies
1 👟
26'
D
21
H. Ito
D
3
Kim Min-Jae
25'
D
42
Lennart Karl
8'
M
8
Leon Goretzka
M
11
N. Jackson
14'
F
22
R. Guerreiro
D
20
T. Bischof
M
39
Matvey Safonov
G
Matvey Safonov
G
25
N. Mendes
85'
D
51
W. Pacho
D
5
Marquinhos
D
Marquinhos
D
33
Warren Zaïre-Emery
D
87
João Neves
M
João Neves
M
17
Vitinha
M
Vitinha
M
8
Fabián Ruiz
76'
M
Fabián Ruiz
76'
M
7
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
1 👟
F
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
1 👟
F
10
Ousmane Dembélé
1 ⚽
65'
F
Ousmane Dembélé
1 ⚽
65'
F
14
D. Doué
76'
F
D. Doué
76'
F
Bench
29
Bradley Barcola
28'
F
Bradley Barcola
28'
F
27
Dro Fernández
M
Dro Fernández
M
9
Gonçalo Ramos
F
Gonçalo Ramos
F
6
Ilya Zabarnyi
D
Ilya Zabarnyi
D
49
I. Mbaye
F
I. Mbaye
F
19
Kang-in Lee
M
Kang-in Lee
M
4
Lucas Beraldo
17'
D
Lucas Beraldo
17'
D
21
Lucas Hernández
17'
D
Lucas Hernández
17'
D
24
Senny Mayulu
8'
M
Senny Mayulu
8'
M
Best on the pitch
M. Neuer
G · Bayern
8.90
· 36 pass
L. Díaz
M · Bayern
8.00
2 shots
· 35 pass
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
F · Paris
7.90
1 👟
2 shots
· 30 pass
Ousmane Dembélé
F · Paris
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 16 pass
N. Mendes
D · Paris
7.50
1 shots
· 34 pass
D. Doué
F · Paris
7.30
4 shots
· 21 pass
Bayern München — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Neuer | G | 93 | 8.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 24% | — | — | — |
| J. Stanisic | D | 67 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Jonathan Tah | D | 68 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 36% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Upamecano | D | 85 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 56 | 51% | — | — | — |
| K. Laimer | D | 93 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Pavlović | M | 93 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 66 | 62% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Kimmich | M | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 72 | 65% | — | — | — |
| L. Díaz | M | 93 | 8.00 | — | — | 2 | 35 | 31% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Musiala | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 23 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Olise | M | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 52 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 93 | 6.90 | 1 | — | — | 29 | 19% | — | — | — |
| A. Davies | D | 26 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 26 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Kim Min-Jae | D | 25 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Lennart Karl | M | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Paris Saint Germain — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matvey Safonov | G | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 7% | — | — | — |
| N. Mendes | D | 85 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 25% | 3 | 1 | — |
| W. Pacho | D | 93 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | 4 | — | — |
| Marquinhos | D | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Warren Zaïre-Emery | D | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| João Neves | M | 93 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 15% | 4 | — | — |
| Vitinha | M | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Fabián Ruiz | M | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | F | 93 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 30 | 20% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Ousmane Dembélé | F | 65 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Doué | F | 76 | 7.30 | — | — | 4 | 21 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| Bradley Barcola | F | 28 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Beraldo | D | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Hernández | D | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Senny Mayulu | M | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bayern München vs Paris Saint Germain?
The final score was Bayern München 1–1 Paris Saint Germain.
What did the model predict before Bayern München vs Paris Saint Germain?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Bayern München win, 19% to a draw, and 30% to an Paris Saint Germain win.