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Champions League · Semi-finals May 06, 2026 21:00
Bayern München
#2 · 21 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Paris Saint Germain
#11 · 14 pts
H. Kane (ast. A. Davies) 90'+4
3' (ast. K. Kvaratskhelia) O. Dembele
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 50% win probability (draw 19%, Paris Saint Germain 30%). The final result was Bayern München 1–1 Paris Saint Germain. In 2 previous meetings, Bayern München have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Paris Saint Germain.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
10
6
Shots on target
7
1.40
Actual xG
0.95
6
Saves
4
65%
Possession
35%
1
Corners
8
8
Tackles
25
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
3'
ast. K. Kvaratskhelia · O. Dembele⚽
8'
N. Mendes
J. Tah
33'
45'+3
K. Kvaratskhelia
65'
B. Barcola / O. Dembele ↕
↕ J. Stanisic / A. Davies
67'
↕ J. Tah / Kim Min-Jae
68'
76'
L. Hernandez / D. Doue ↕
76'
L. Beraldo / F. Ruiz ↕
L. Diaz
78'
↕ J. Musiala / N. Jackson
79'
↕ D. Upamecano / L. Karl
85'
85'
S. Mayulu / N. Mendes ↕
86'
Marquinhos
⚽H. Kane · ast. A. Davies
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
50.27%
Bayern
19.54%
X ←
30.18%
Paris
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 19.54% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Bayern
2.29
1.40
-0.89
Paris
1.93
0.95
-0.98
Bayern München dominated by xG (1.40 vs 0.95). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Arsenal Arsenal 8 24
2 Bayern München Bayern München 8 21
3 Liverpool Liverpool 8 18
4 Tottenham Tottenham 8 17
5 Barcelona Barcelona 8 16
6 Chelsea Chelsea 8 16
7 Sporting CP Sporting CP 8 16
8 Manchester City Manchester City 8 16
9 Real Madrid Real Madrid 8 15
10 Inter Inter 8 15
11 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 8 14
12 Newcastle Newcastle 8 14
13 Juventus Juventus 8 13
14 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 8 13
15 Atalanta Atalanta 8 13
16 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 8 12
17 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 8 11
18 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus 8 11
19 Club Brugge KV Club Brugge KV 8 10
20 Galatasaray Galatasaray 8 10
21 Monaco Monaco 8 10
22 Qarabag Qarabag 8 10
23 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt 8 9
24 Benfica Benfica 8 9
25 Marseille Marseille 8 9
26 Pafos Pafos 8 9
27 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 8 9
28 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 8 8
29 Athletic Club Athletic Club 8 8
30 Napoli Napoli 8 8
31 FC Copenhagen FC Copenhagen 8 8
32 Ajax Ajax 8 6
33 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 8 4
34 Slavia Praha Slavia Praha 8 3
35 Villarreal Villarreal 8 1
36 Kairat Almaty Kairat Almaty 8 1
Lineups
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer M. Neuer G 8.90
44 Josip Stanišić Josip Stanišić 67' D 6.90
4 J. Tah J. Tah 68' D 6.50
2 Dayot Upamecano Dayot Upamecano 85' D 6.90
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer D 6.20
45 A. Pavlović A. Pavlović M 6.20
6 J. Kimmich J. Kimmich M 7.00
14 L. Díaz L. Díaz M 8.00
10 J. Musiala J. Musiala 79' M 6.90
17 M. Olise M. Olise M 6.30
9 H. Kane H. Kane 1 ⚽ F 6.90
Bench
19 Alphonso Davies Alphonso Davies 1 👟 26' D 7.20
21 H. Ito H. Ito D
3 Kim Min-Jae Kim Min-Jae 25' D 6.90
42 Lennart Karl Lennart Karl 8' M 6.50
8 L. Goretzka L. Goretzka M
11 N. Jackson N. Jackson 14' F 6.30
22 Raphaël Guerreiro Raphaël Guerreiro D
20 Tom Bischof Tom Bischof M
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
39 Matvey Safonov Matvey Safonov G 6.90
25 Nuno Mendes Nuno Mendes 85' D 7.50
51 W. Pacho W. Pacho D 7.20
5 Marquinhos Marquinhos D 6.60
33 Warren Zaïre-Emery Warren Zaïre-Emery D 6.30
87 João Neves João Neves M 7.30
17 Vitinha Vitinha M 6.30
8 Fabián Ruiz Fabián Ruiz 76' M 6.90
7 K. Kvaratskhelia K. Kvaratskhelia 1 👟 F 7.90
10 O. Dembélé O. Dembélé 1 ⚽ 65' F 7.70
14 Désiré Doué Désiré Doué 76' F 7.30
Bench
29 B. Barcola B. Barcola 28' F 6.20
27 Dro Fernández Dro Fernández M
9 Gonçalo Ramos Gonçalo Ramos F
49 Ibrahim Mbaye Ibrahim Mbaye F
6 I. Zabarnyi I. Zabarnyi D
19 Lee Kang-In Lee Kang-In M
4 Lucas Beraldo Lucas Beraldo 17' D 6.70
21 Lucas Hernández Lucas Hernández 17' D 6.90
24 Senny Mayulu Senny Mayulu 8' M 6.50
Best on the pitch
M. Neuer
M. Neuer
G · Bayern
8.90
· 36 pass
L. Díaz
L. Díaz
M · Bayern
8.00
2 shots · 35 pass
K. Kvaratskhelia
K. Kvaratskhelia
F · Paris
7.90
1 👟
2 shots · 30 pass
O. Dembélé
O. Dembélé
F · Paris
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 16 pass
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes
D · Paris
7.50
1 shots · 34 pass
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué
F · Paris
7.30
4 shots · 21 pass
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Neuer G 93 8.90 — — — 36 24% — — —
Josip Stanišić D 67 6.90 — — 1 44 39% 2 — —
J. Tah D 68 6.50 — — 1 42 36% — 1 —
Dayot Upamecano D 85 6.90 — — — 56 51% — — —
K. Laimer D 93 6.20 — — — 45 42% 1 — —
A. Pavlović M 93 6.20 — — 1 66 62% 1 — —
J. Kimmich M 93 7.00 — — — 72 65% — — —
L. Díaz M 93 8.00 — — 2 35 31% 1 1 —
J. Musiala M 79 6.90 — — 3 23 19% 1 — —
M. Olise M 93 6.30 — — 3 52 41% 1 — —
H. Kane F 93 6.90 1 — — 29 19% — — —
Alphonso Davies D 26 7.20 — 1 — 26 26% 1 — —
Kim Min-Jae D 25 6.90 — — — 16 15% — — —
Lennart Karl M 8 6.50 — — — 4 4% — — —
N. Jackson F 14 6.30 — — 1 3 2% — — —
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Matvey Safonov G 93 6.90 — — — 31 7% — — —
Nuno Mendes D 85 7.50 — — 1 34 25% 3 1 —
W. Pacho D 93 7.20 — — — 24 19% 4 — —
Marquinhos D 93 6.60 — — — 22 18% 1 1 —
Warren Zaïre-Emery D 93 6.30 — — — 25 22% 1 — —
João Neves M 93 7.30 — — 1 21 15% 4 — —
Vitinha M 93 6.30 — — — 34 29% 1 — —
Fabián Ruiz M 76 6.90 — — — 23 15% 2 — —
K. Kvaratskhelia F 93 7.90 — 1 2 30 20% 2 1 —
O. Dembélé F 65 7.70 1 — 1 16 13% 1 — —
Désiré Doué F 76 7.30 — — 4 21 16% 3 — —
B. Barcola F 28 6.20 — — 1 3 3% 2 — —
Lucas Beraldo D 17 6.70 — — — 3 3% — — —
Lucas Hernández D 17 6.90 — — — 3 1% 1 — —
Senny Mayulu M 8 6.50 — — — 6 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Bayern München vs Paris Saint Germain?
The final score was Bayern München 1–1 Paris Saint Germain.
What did the model predict before Bayern München vs Paris Saint Germain?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Bayern München win, 19% to a draw, and 30% to an Paris Saint Germain win.