Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 4
May 08, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction Millonarios
M. Hornos
(ast. G. Reyna)
18'
Y. Gonzalez
(ast. F. Bonfiglio)
75'
(pen.)
50'
R. Contreras
(pen.)
81'
L. Castro
85'
R. Contreras
90'+6
(ast. J. Angulo)
L. Castro
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Millonarios a 59% win probability (draw 23%, Boston River 16%). The final result was Boston River 2–4 Millonarios. In 1 previous meetings, Boston River have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Millonarios.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
23
4
Shots on target
10
0.61
Actual xG
4.02
6
Saves
2
52%
Possession
48%
2
Corners
9
9
Tackles
13
4
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽M. Hornos
· ast. G. Reyna
18'
A. Gonzalez
45'+1
A. Aguirre
45'+3
A. Gonzalez
/ F. Bonfiglio
46'
50'
(pen.)
R. Contreras⚽
M. Hornos
/ F. Munoa
56'
G. Ramirez
/ A. Amado
56'
F. Barrios
/ F. Dafonte
63'
A. Romero
/ Y. Gonzalez
63'
69'
B. D. Castro Espinosa
/
M. Garcia
⚽Y. Gonzalez
· ast. F. Bonfiglio
75'
76'
J. Angulo
/
S. Viveros
76'
S. Vega
/
D. Silva
M. Mancebo
77'
81'
(pen.)
L. Castro⚽
85'
R. Contreras⚽
A. Amado
87'
88'
D. Banguero
/
R. Contreras
90'+6
ast. J. Angulo ·
L. Castro⚽
Pre-match prediction
16.96%
Boston
23.92%
X
59.13%
Millonarios ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Millonarios)
59.13%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.58
0.61
+0.03
1.59
4.02
+2.43
Millonarios dominated by xG (4.02 vs 0.61).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
13
Ignacio Fernandez
D
25
A. Aguirre
D
3
Marco Mancebo
D
17
D
5
Francisco Barrios
63'
M
20
Marcelo Hornos
1 ⚽
56'
M
11
Gastón Ramírez
56'
M
6
A. Romero
63'
M
99
G. Añasgo
1 👟
M
G. Añasgo
1 👟
M
9
Alexander González
45'
F
Bench
10
A. Amado
41'
M
29
Andy López
M
26
Facundo Muñoa
41'
M
14
Federico Dafonte
34'
M
8
Francisco Bonfiglio
1 👟
52'
F
31
Juan Acosta
D
12
Juan Ignacio González
G
23
Mateo Rivero
D
32
Yair González
1 ⚽
34'
F
12
Diego Novoa
G
22
Sebastián Valencia Isaza
D
Sebastián Valencia Isaza
D
17
J. Arias
D
26
A. Llinas
D
2
Carlos Sarabia
D
14
David Macalister Silva
76'
M
18
R. Ureña
M
R. Ureña
M
19
M. Garcia
69'
M
30
76'
M
27
R. Contreras
2 ⚽
88'
F
R. Contreras
2 ⚽
88'
F
23
L. Castro
2 ⚽
F
L. Castro
2 ⚽
F
Bench
29
A. F. Moreno Paz
D
11
B. Castro
28'
F
B. Castro
28'
F
20
D. Banguero
9'
D
4
Edgar Elizalde
D
1
G. De Amores
G
3
M. Samuel
D
Best on the pitch
R. Contreras
F · Millonarios
8.30
2 ⚽
4 shots
· 14 pass
Yair González
F · Boston
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 23 pass
Marcelo Hornos
M · Boston
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 4 pass
B. Castro
F · Millonarios
7.20
1 shots
· 3 pass
L. Castro
F · Millonarios
7.20
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 30 pass
M. Garcia
M · Millonarios
7.00
1 shots
· 38 pass
Boston River — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 38 | 26% | — | — | — | |
| Ignacio Fernandez | D | 97 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Aguirre | D | 97 | 5.50 | — | — | — | 33 | 29% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Marco Mancebo | D | 97 | 5.60 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 46% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 36% | 1 | — | — | |
| Francisco Barrios | M | 63 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Marcelo Hornos | M | 56 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 4 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Gastón Ramírez | M | 56 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 10% | — | — | — |
| A. Romero | M | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| G. Añasgo | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Alexander González | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Amado | M | 41 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 34 | 33% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Facundo Muñoa | M | 41 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Federico Dafonte | M | 34 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Francisco Bonfiglio | F | 52 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Yair González | F | 34 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | — | — | — |
Millonarios — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Novoa | G | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Valencia Isaza | D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 42 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Arias | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Llinas | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 47 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Sarabia | D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| David Macalister Silva | M | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 31 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Ureña | M | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 53 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Garcia | M | 69 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 76 | 6.50 | — | — | 6 | 17 | 11% | — | — | — | |
| R. Contreras | F | 88 | 8.30 | 2 | — | 4 | 14 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Castro | F | 97 | 7.20 | 2 | — | 2 | 30 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Castro | F | 28 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Banguero | D | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Boston River vs Millonarios?
The final score was Boston River 2–4 Millonarios.
What did the model predict before Boston River vs Millonarios?
The model assigned 16% probability to a Boston River win, 23% to a draw, and 59% to an Millonarios win.