Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 4
May 08, 2026 00:00
✓Model correct — prediction Millonarios
M. Hornos
(ast. G. Reyna)
18'
Y. Gonzalez
(ast. F. Bonfiglio)
75'
(pen.)
50'
R. Contreras
(pen.)
81'
L. Castro
85'
R. Contreras
90'+6
(ast. J. Angulo)
L. Castro
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Millonarios a 59% win probability (draw 23%, Boston River 16%). The final result was Boston River 2–4 Millonarios. In 1 previous meetings, Boston River have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Millonarios.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
23
4
Shots on target
10
0.61
Actual xG
4.02
6
Saves
2
52%
Possession
48%
2
Corners
9
9
Tackles
13
4
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽M. Hornos
· ast. G. Reyna
18'
A. Gonzalez
45'+1
A. Aguirre
45'+3
A. Gonzalez
/ F. Bonfiglio
46'
50'
(pen.)
R. Contreras⚽
M. Hornos
/ F. Munoa
56'
G. Ramirez
/ A. Amado
56'
F. Barrios
/ F. Dafonte
63'
A. Romero
/ Y. Gonzalez
63'
69'
B. D. Castro Espinosa
/
M. Garcia
⚽Y. Gonzalez
· ast. F. Bonfiglio
75'
76'
J. Angulo
/
S. Viveros
76'
S. Vega
/
D. Silva
M. Mancebo
77'
81'
(pen.)
L. Castro⚽
85'
R. Contreras⚽
A. Amado
87'
88'
D. Banguero
/
R. Contreras
90'+6
ast. J. Angulo ·
L. Castro⚽
Pre-match prediction
16.96%
Boston
23.92%
X
59.13%
Millonarios ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Millonarios)
59.13%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.58
0.61
+0.03
1.59
4.02
+2.43
Millonarios dominated by xG (4.02 vs 0.61).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
13
Ignacio Fernandez
D
25
A. Aguirre
D
3
M. Mancebo
D
17
D
5
Francisco Barrios
63'
M
Francisco Barrios
63'
M
20
Marcelo Hornos
1 ⚽
56'
M
11
G. Ramírez
56'
M
6
A. Romero
63'
M
99
G. Añasgo
1 👟
M
G. Añasgo
1 👟
M
9
Alexander González
45'
F
Bench
10
A. Amado
41'
M
29
A. Lima
M
8
F. Bonfiglio
1 👟
52'
F
14
Federico Dafonte
34'
M
26
F. Muñoa
41'
M
31
J. Acosta
D
12
J. González
G
23
Mateo Rivero
D
Mateo Rivero
D
32
Yair González
1 ⚽
34'
F
12
Diego Novoa
G
Diego Novoa
G
22
Sebastián Valencia
D
Sebastián Valencia
D
17
Jorge Arias
D
Jorge Arias
D
26
Andrés Llinás
D
Andrés Llinás
D
2
C. Sarabia
D
C. Sarabia
D
14
David Macalister Silva
76'
M
David Macalister Silva
76'
M
18
Rodrigo Ureña
M
Rodrigo Ureña
M
19
Mateo García
69'
M
Mateo García
69'
M
30
76'
M
27
R. Contreras
2 ⚽
88'
F
R. Contreras
2 ⚽
88'
F
23
Leonardo Castro
2 ⚽
F
Leonardo Castro
2 ⚽
F
Bench
29
Alex Moreno
D
Alex Moreno
D
11
Beckham Castro
28'
F
Beckham Castro
28'
F
20
Danovis Banguero
9'
D
Danovis Banguero
9'
D
4
E. Elizalde
D
1
Guillermo De Amores
G
Guillermo De Amores
G
3
Samuel Martín
D
Samuel Martín
D
Best on the pitch
R. Contreras
F · Millonarios
8.30
2 ⚽
4 shots
· 14 pass
Yair González
F · Boston
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 23 pass
Marcelo Hornos
M · Boston
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 4 pass
Beckham Castro
F · Millonarios
7.20
1 shots
· 3 pass
Leonardo Castro
F · Millonarios
7.20
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 30 pass
Mateo García
M · Millonarios
7.00
1 shots
· 38 pass
Boston River — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 38 | 26% | — | — | — | |
| Ignacio Fernandez | D | 97 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Aguirre | D | 97 | 5.50 | — | — | — | 33 | 29% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Mancebo | D | 97 | 5.60 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 46% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 36% | 1 | — | — | |
| Francisco Barrios | M | 63 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Marcelo Hornos | M | 56 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 4 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Ramírez | M | 56 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 10% | — | — | — |
| A. Romero | M | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| G. Añasgo | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Alexander González | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Amado | M | 41 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 34 | 33% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. Bonfiglio | F | 52 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Federico Dafonte | M | 34 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Muñoa | M | 41 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Yair González | F | 34 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | — | — | — |
Millonarios — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Novoa | G | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Valencia | D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 42 | 32% | 4 | — | — |
| Jorge Arias | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| Andrés Llinás | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 47 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Sarabia | D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| David Macalister Silva | M | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 31 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Ureña | M | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 53 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Mateo García | M | 69 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 76 | 6.50 | — | — | 6 | 17 | 11% | — | — | — | |
| R. Contreras | F | 88 | 8.30 | 2 | — | 4 | 14 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Leonardo Castro | F | 97 | 7.20 | 2 | — | 2 | 30 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Beckham Castro | F | 28 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Danovis Banguero | D | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Boston River vs Millonarios?
The final score was Boston River 2–4 Millonarios.
What did the model predict before Boston River vs Millonarios?
The model assigned 16% probability to a Boston River win, 23% to a draw, and 59% to an Millonarios win.