Premier League
· Regular Season - 36
May 10, 2026 15:00
J. Anthony
8'
Z. Flemming
(ast. H. Mejbri)
59'
42'
(ast. J. McGinn)
R. Barkley
56'
(ast. E. Martinez)
O. Watkins
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Aston Villa a 52% win probability (draw 26%, Burnley 21%). The final result was Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa. In 1 previous meetings, Burnley have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Aston Villa.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
13
6
Shots on target
7
1.77
Actual xG
1.42
5
Saves
4
34%
Possession
66%
2
Corners
8
21
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Anthony
8'
39'
42'
ast. J. McGinn ·
R. Barkley⚽
49'
T. Mings
56'
ast. E. Martinez ·
O. Watkins⚽
⚽Z. Flemming
· ast. H. Mejbri
59'
Z. Flemming
60'
H. Mejbri
/ L. Foster
69'
74'
L. Digne
/
I. Maatsen
74'
E. Buendia
/
V. Lindelof
L. Ugochukwu
/ J. Laurent
79'
Z. Flemming
/ Z. Amdouni
80'
80'
Douglas Luiz
/
R. Barkley
80'
L. Bogarde
/
M. Cash
85'
L. Bailey
/
J. McGinn
J. Anthony
/ J. Bruun Larsen
87'
Florentino
/ J. Ward-Prowse
88'
Pre-match prediction
21.48%
Burnley
26.26%
X ←
52.27%
Aston
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
26.26%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.00
1.77
+0.78
1.60
1.42
-0.18
Burnley dominated by xG (1.77 vs 1.42).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
Max Weiss
G
Max Weiss
G
23
Lucas Pires
D
Lucas Pires
D
5
Maxime Estève
D
Maxime Estève
D
6
A. Tuanzebe
D
A. Tuanzebe
D
2
K. Walker
D
K. Walker
D
8
Lesley Ugochukwu
79'
M
Lesley Ugochukwu
79'
M
16
Florentino Luís
87'
M
Florentino Luís
87'
M
11
Jaidon Anthony
1 ⚽
87'
M
Jaidon Anthony
1 ⚽
87'
M
28
Hannibal Mejbri
1 👟
69'
M
Hannibal Mejbri
1 👟
69'
M
17
Loum Tchaouna
M
Loum Tchaouna
M
19
Z. Flemming
1 ⚽
79'
F
Z. Flemming
1 ⚽
79'
F
Bench
27
Armando Broja
F
Armando Broja
F
12
Bashir Humphreys
D
Bashir Humphreys
D
7
Jacob Bruun Larsen
10'
F
Jacob Bruun Larsen
10'
F
20
James Ward-Prowse
10'
M
James Ward-Prowse
10'
M
29
Josh Laurent
18'
M
Josh Laurent
18'
M
9
Lyle Foster
28'
F
Lyle Foster
28'
F
1
Martin Dúbravka
G
Martin Dúbravka
G
3
Quilindschy Hartman
D
Quilindschy Hartman
D
25
Zeki Amdouni
18'
F
Zeki Amdouni
18'
F
23
Emiliano Martínez
1 👟
G
Emiliano Martínez
1 👟
G
22
Ian Maatsen
74'
D
Ian Maatsen
74'
D
5
Tyrone Mings
D
Tyrone Mings
D
4
Ezri Konsa
D
Ezri Konsa
D
2
Matty Cash
80'
D
Matty Cash
80'
D
8
Y. Tielemans
M
Y. Tielemans
M
3
Victor Lindelöf
74'
M
Victor Lindelöf
74'
M
27
M. Rogers
M
M. Rogers
M
6
Ross Barkley
1 ⚽
80'
M
Ross Barkley
1 ⚽
80'
M
7
J. McGinn
1 👟
85'
M
J. McGinn
1 👟
85'
M
11
O. Watkins
1 ⚽
F
O. Watkins
1 ⚽
F
Bench
21
Douglas Luiz
17'
M
Douglas Luiz
17'
M
10
E. Buendía
23'
M
E. Buendía
23'
M
19
Jadon Sancho
F
Jadon Sancho
F
26
Lamare Bogarde
17'
M
Lamare Bogarde
17'
M
31
L. Bailey
12'
F
L. Bailey
12'
F
12
Lucas Digne
23'
D
Lucas Digne
23'
D
40
Marco Bizot
G
Marco Bizot
G
14
Pau Torres
D
Pau Torres
D
18
Tammy Abraham
F
Tammy Abraham
F
Best on the pitch
Y. Tielemans
M · Aston
7.60
2 shots
· 63 pass
Lucas Digne
D · Aston
7.30
· 9 pass
K. Walker
D · Burnley
7.20
· 32 pass
Lesley Ugochukwu
M · Burnley
7.20
1 shots
· 19 pass
O. Watkins
F · Aston
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 16 pass
Hannibal Mejbri
M · Burnley
7.20
1 👟
· 15 pass
Burnley — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Weiss | G | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Pires | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Maxime Estève | D | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| A. Tuanzebe | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Walker | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 25% | 4 | — | — |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | M | 79 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Florentino Luís | M | 87 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Jaidon Anthony | M | 87 | 6.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 25 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Hannibal Mejbri | M | 69 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Loum Tchaouna | M | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Z. Flemming | F | 79 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 9 | 5% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen | F | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| James Ward-Prowse | M | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Josh Laurent | M | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Lyle Foster | F | 28 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | — | — | — | — |
| Zeki Amdouni | F | 18 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 97 | 6.70 | — | 1 | — | 38 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Ian Maatsen | D | 74 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| Tyrone Mings | D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 72 | 62% | — | 1 | — |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 82 | 82% | 1 | — | — |
| Matty Cash | D | 80 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 97 | 7.60 | — | — | 2 | 63 | 54% | 2 | — | — |
| Victor Lindelöf | M | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | — | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 97 | 5.60 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Ross Barkley | M | 80 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 4 | 34 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 85 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 2 | 35 | 24% | — | — | — |
| O. Watkins | F | 97 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 23 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Lamare Bogarde | M | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Bailey | F | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Digne | D | 23 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Burnley vs Aston Villa?
The final score was Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before Burnley vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 21% probability to a Burnley win, 26% to a draw, and 52% to an Aston Villa win.