MLS
· Regular Season - 14
May 14, 2026 01:30
✗Model wrong — prediction CF Montreal, result Pareggio
D. Rios
(ast. M. Longstaff)
11'
W. Carmona
(ast. M. Longstaff)
45'
21'
(ast. K. Velde)
K. Kelsy
77'
C. Bassett
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave CF Montreal a 56% win probability (draw 22%, Portland Timbers 21%). The final result was CF Montreal 2–2 Portland Timbers.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
8
8
Shots on target
3
1.85
Actual xG
1.99
1
Saves
6
43%
Possession
57%
6
Corners
9
11
Tackles
14
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
9'
D. Chara
/
J. Caicedo
⚽D. Rios
· ast. M. Longstaff
11'
21'
ast. K. Velde ·
K. Kelsy⚽
O. Escobar
/ S. Piette
35'
⚽W. Carmona
· ast. M. Longstaff
45'
59'
Antony
/
A. Aravena
59'
I. Smith
/
J. Fory
J. Neal
68'
D. Rios
/ P. Owusu
69'
W. Carmona
/ Ivan Jaime
69'
77'
C. Bassett⚽
P. Owusu
79'
M. Longstaff
81'
82'
F. Mora
/
K. Kelsy
83'
C. Bassett
N. Streit
/ M. Opoku
88'
D. Thorhallsson
/ D. Bugaj
88'
P. Eullaffroy
90'+3
D. Rios
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
56.07%
CF
22.66%
X ←
21.27%
Portland
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
22.66%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.43
1.85
-0.58
0.96
1.99
+1.03
xG dominance was balanced (1.85 – 1.99).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
31
Thomas Gillier
G
Thomas Gillier
G
13
Luca Petrasso
D
Luca Petrasso
D
4
Brayan Vera
D
Brayan Vera
D
2
Jalen Neal
D
Jalen Neal
D
17
Dagur Dan Þórhallsson
88'
D
Dagur Dan Þórhallsson
88'
D
8
Matthew Longstaff
2 👟
M
Matthew Longstaff
2 👟
M
22
Victor Loturi
M
Victor Loturi
M
29
Olger Escobar
35'
M
Olger Escobar
35'
M
23
Noah Streit
87'
F
Noah Streit
87'
F
14
Daniel Rios
1 ⚽
69'
F
Daniel Rios
1 ⚽
69'
F
16
Wikelman Carmona
1 ⚽
69'
F
Wikelman Carmona
1 ⚽
69'
F
Bench
5
Brandan Craig
D
Brandan Craig
D
27
Dawid Bugaj
7'
D
Dawid Bugaj
7'
D
24
Efraín Morales
D
Efraín Morales
D
25
Frankie Amaya
M
Frankie Amaya
M
10
Iván Jaime
26'
M
Iván Jaime
26'
M
7
Kwadwo Opoku
8'
F
Kwadwo Opoku
8'
F
9
Prince Owusu
26'
F
Prince Owusu
26'
F
6
Samuel Piette
60'
M
Samuel Piette
60'
M
1
Sebastian Breza
G
Sebastian Breza
G
41
James Pantemis
G
James Pantemis
G
27
Jímer Fory
59'
D
Jímer Fory
59'
D
4
Kamal Miller
D
Kamal Miller
D
20
Finn Surman
D
Finn Surman
D
5
Brandon Bye
D
Brandon Bye
D
30
José Caicedo
9'
M
José Caicedo
9'
M
17
Cole Bassett
1 ⚽
M
Cole Bassett
1 ⚽
M
28
Alexander Aravena
59'
M
Alexander Aravena
59'
M
10
David Pereira Da Costa
M
David Pereira Da Costa
M
99
Kristoffer Velde
1 👟
M
Kristoffer Velde
1 👟
M
19
Kevin Kelsy
1 ⚽
82'
F
Kevin Kelsy
1 ⚽
82'
F
Bench
6
Alex Bonetig
D
Alex Bonetig
D
11
Antony Alves
36'
F
Antony Alves
36'
F
7
Ariel Lassiter
F
Ariel Lassiter
F
21
Diego Chará
86'
M
Diego Chará
86'
M
9
Felipe Mora
13'
F
Felipe Mora
13'
F
23
Ian Smith
36'
D
Ian Smith
36'
D
80
Joao Ortíz
M
Joao Ortíz
M
29
Juan Mosquera
D
Juan Mosquera
D
25
Trey Muse
G
Trey Muse
G
Best on the pitch
Wikelman Carmona
F · CF
9.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 27 pass
Matthew Longstaff
M · CF
8.20
2 👟
1 shots
· 55 pass
Cole Bassett
M · Portland
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 68 pass
Victor Loturi
M · CF
7.70
· 47 pass
Daniel Rios
F · CF
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 17 pass
Diego Chará
M · Portland
7.60
· 59 pass
CF Montreal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Gillier | G | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 22 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Luca Petrasso | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 48 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Brayan Vera | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 50 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Jalen Neal | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 51 | 46% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Dagur Dan Þórhallsson | D | 88 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Matthew Longstaff | M | 95 | 8.20 | — | 2 | 1 | 55 | 53% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Victor Loturi | M | 95 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 47 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| Olger Escobar | M | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Noah Streit | F | 87 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel Rios | F | 69 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 17 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| Wikelman Carmona | F | 69 | 9.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 27 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Dawid Bugaj | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Iván Jaime | M | 26 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Kwadwo Opoku | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Prince Owusu | F | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| Samuel Piette | M | 60 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 42% | — | — | — |
Portland Timbers — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Pantemis | G | 95 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 42 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Jímer Fory | D | 59 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Kamal Miller | D | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 91 | 82% | — | — | — |
| Finn Surman | D | 95 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 63 | 61% | 2 | — | — |
| Brandon Bye | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 43 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| José Caicedo | M | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Cole Bassett | M | 95 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 68 | 63% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Alexander Aravena | M | 59 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 21% | — | — | — |
| David Pereira Da Costa | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 60 | 58% | 1 | — | — |
| Kristoffer Velde | M | 95 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 47 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Kelsy | F | 82 | 6.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 13 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Antony Alves | F | 36 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Diego Chará | M | 86 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 59 | 56% | 4 | — | — |
| Felipe Mora | F | 13 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Ian Smith | D | 36 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of CF Montreal vs Portland Timbers?
The final score was CF Montreal 2–2 Portland Timbers.
What did the model predict before CF Montreal vs Portland Timbers?
The model assigned 56% probability to a CF Montreal win, 22% to a draw, and 21% to an Portland Timbers win.