Premier League
· Regular Season - 32
April 12, 2026 19:30
51'
(ast. Rayan Cherki)
Nico O'Reilly
57'
(ast. Rayan Cherki)
Marc Guéhi
68'
Jérémy Doku
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 45% win probability (draw 22%, Chelsea 32%). The final result was Chelsea 0–3 Manchester City. In 1 previous meetings, Chelsea have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Manchester City.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
12
3
Shots on target
8
1.14
Actual xG
1.89
5
Saves
3
36%
Possession
64%
4
Corners
12
19
Tackles
19
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Estêvão
12'
38'
Antoine Semenyo
51'
ast. Rayan Cherki ·
Nico O'Reilly⚽
Marc Cucurella
54'
57'
ast. Rayan Cherki ·
Marc Guéhi⚽
64'
Rayan Aït-Nouri
/
Nico O'Reilly
Andrey Santos
/ Roméo Lavia
67'
Estêvão
/ Alejandro Garnacho
67'
68'
Jérémy Doku⚽
76'
Phil Foden
/
Rayan Cherki
76'
Savinho
/
Jérémy Doku
João Pedro
/ Liam Delap
81'
81'
Mateo Kovačić
/
Bernardo Silva
Moisés Caicedo
/ Dário Essugo
82'
Malo Gusto
/ Josh Acheampong
88'
Dário Essugo
90'+8
Pre-match prediction
32.02%
Chelsea
22.85%
X
45.13%
Manchester ←
we assigned to the actual result (Manchester City)
45.13%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.78
1.14
-0.64
2.04
1.89
-0.15
Manchester City dominated by xG (1.89 vs 1.14).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
R. Sanchez
G
3
Marc Cucurella
D
21
J. Hato
D
29
Wesley Fofana
D
27
Malo Gusto
88'
D
25
M. Caicedo
82'
M
M. Caicedo
82'
M
17
Andrey Santos
67'
M
7
Pedro Neto
M
10
C. Palmer
M
C. Palmer
M
41
Estêvão
67'
M
20
João Pedro
81'
F
João Pedro
81'
F
Bench
49
A. Garnacho
23'
F
14
Dário Essugo
8'
M
9
L. Delap
9'
F
45
R. Lavia
23'
M
4
T. Adarabioyo
D
25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G
33
Nico O'Reilly
1 ⚽
64'
D
15
M. Guéhi
1 ⚽
D
M. Guéhi
1 ⚽
D
45
D
27
Matheus Nunes
D
Matheus Nunes
D
16
Rodri
M
Rodri
M
20
Bernardo Silva
81'
M
Bernardo Silva
81'
M
11
Jérémy Doku
1 ⚽
76'
M
Jérémy Doku
1 ⚽
76'
M
10
Rayan Cherki
2 👟
76'
M
Rayan Cherki
2 👟
76'
M
42
Antoine Semenyo
M
Antoine Semenyo
M
9
Erling Haaland
F
Erling Haaland
F
Bench
8
Mateo Kovačić
9'
M
Mateo Kovačić
9'
M
6
Nathan Aké
D
Nathan Aké
D
14
Nico
M
7
Omar Marmoush
F
Omar Marmoush
F
47
Phil Foden
14'
M
Phil Foden
14'
M
21
Rayan Aït-Nouri
26'
D
Rayan Aït-Nouri
26'
D
4
Tijjani Reijnders
M
Tijjani Reijnders
M
Best on the pitch
M. Guéhi
D · Manchester
9.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 102 pass
Rayan Cherki
M · Manchester
8.00
2 👟
1 shots
· 60 pass
Jérémy Doku
M · Manchester
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 39 pass
Nico O'Reilly
D · Manchester
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 43 pass
Gianluigi Donnarumma
G · Manchester
7.90
· 27 pass
D · Manchester
7.70
1 shots
· 73 pass
Chelsea — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Sanchez | G | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 35 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Hato | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 63 | 60% | 3 | — | — |
| Wesley Fofana | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 39 | 37% | 3 | — | — |
| Malo Gusto | D | 88 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | 5 | — | — |
| M. Caicedo | M | 82 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Andrey Santos | M | 67 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| Pedro Neto | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | — | — | — |
| C. Palmer | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Estêvão | M | 67 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| João Pedro | F | 81 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 12% | — | — | — |
| A. Garnacho | F | 23 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Dário Essugo | M | 8 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 3 | 1 | — |
| L. Delap | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| R. Lavia | M | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
Manchester City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | G | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 64 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 43 | 40% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Guéhi | D | 90 | 9.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 102 | 100% | 3 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 73 | 68% | — | — | — | |
| Matheus Nunes | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 68 | 64% | — | — | — |
| Rodri | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 99 | 93% | 1 | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 81 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 70 | 59% | 4 | — | — |
| Jérémy Doku | M | 76 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 39 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Rayan Cherki | M | 76 | 8.00 | — | 2 | 1 | 60 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Antoine Semenyo | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 33 | 29% | — | 1 | — |
| Erling Haaland | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 11 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | 9 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Phil Foden | M | 14 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | D | 26 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Chelsea vs Manchester City?
The final score was Chelsea 0–3 Manchester City.
What did the model predict before Chelsea vs Manchester City?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Chelsea win, 22% to a draw, and 45% to an Manchester City win.