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Championship · Regular Season - 40 April 03, 2026 21:00
Coventry
#1 · 95 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Derby
#8 · 69 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Coventry
F. Onyeka (ast. R. Esse) 12'
J. Rudoni 68'
J. Rudoni (ast. M. van Ewijk) 80'
38' (ast. M. Clarke) B. Brereton Diaz
(pen.) 77' B. Brereton Diaz

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Coventry a 62% win probability (draw 20%, Derby 17%). The final result was Coventry 3–2 Derby. In 1 previous meetings, Coventry have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Derby.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
6
7
Shots on target
3
1.57
Actual xG
2.18
1
Saves
4
51%
Possession
49%
6
Corners
1
16
Tackles
17
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽F. Onyeka · ast. R. Esse
12'
29'
Lewis Travis
38'
ast. M. Clarke · B. Brereton Diaz⚽
↕ R. Esse / E. Mason-Clark
63'
↕ E. Simms / H. Wright
63'
↕ J. Eccles / J. Rudoni
63'
65'
P. Agyemang / C. Morris ↕
⚽J. Rudoni
68'
72'
O. Fraulo / J. Banel ↕
77'
(pen.) B. Brereton Diaz⚽
⚽J. Rudoni · ast. M. van Ewijk
80'
81'
Patrick Agyemang
86'
C. Allen / D. Ozoh ↕
↕ M. Grimes / V. Torp
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
62.23%
Coventry ←
20.33%
X
17.43%
Derby
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Coventry) 62.23% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Coventry
2.24
1.57
-0.67
Derby
1.12
2.18
+1.06
Derby dominated by xG (2.18 vs 1.57). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Coventry Coventry 4-2-3-1
19
G 5.60
3
J. Dasilva D 6.20
15
D 6.90
4
B. Thomas D 7.30
27 M. van Ewijk M. van Ewijk 1 👟 D 6.90
16
F. Onyeka 1 ⚽ M 7.90
6
Matt Grimes 89' M 6.90
14
R. Esse 1 👟 63' M 6.90
28
J. Eccles 63' M 7.30
7
T. Sakamoto M 7.20
9 E. Simms E. Simms 63' F 6.20
Bench
10 E. Mason-Clark E. Mason-Clark 27' F 6.30
11 H. Wright H. Wright 27' F 6.30
5
J. Rudoni 2 ⚽ 27' M 8.60
20
K. Kesler-Hayden D
29 V. Torp V. Torp 8' M 6.30
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
12
G 7.60
2
D. Murkin D 6.00
5
M. Clarke 1 👟 D 6.90
28
D. Sanderson D 6.20
23
D 6.30
18
D. Ozoh 86' M 6.70
27 L. Travis L. Travis M 6.90
34
J. Banel 72' M 5.60
42
B. Clark M 5.70
25
B. Brereton Diaz 2 ⚽ M 8.60
9 C. Morris C. Morris 65' F 6.60
Bench
3
C. Forsyth D
29
O. Fraulo 18' M 6.00
7 P. Agyemang P. Agyemang 25' F 6.20
Best on the pitch
B. Brereton Diaz
M · Derby
8.60
2 ⚽
2 shots · 24 pass
J. Rudoni
M · Coventry
8.60
2 ⚽
2 shots · 14 pass
F. Onyeka
M · Coventry
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 36 pass
G · Derby
7.60
· 35 pass
B. Thomas
D · Coventry
7.30
1 shots · 40 pass
J. Eccles
M · Coventry
7.30
3 shots · 18 pass
Coventry Coventry — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.60 — — — 38 21% — — —
J. Dasilva D 90 6.20 — — — 53 44% — — —
D 90 6.90 — — — 55 45% 1 — —
B. Thomas D 90 7.30 — — 1 40 31% 1 — —
M. van Ewijk D 90 6.90 — 1 — 36 25% 4 — —
F. Onyeka M 90 7.90 1 — 1 36 24% 4 — —
Matt Grimes M 89 6.90 — — — 52 42% — — —
R. Esse M 63 6.90 — 1 1 18 14% 2 — —
J. Eccles M 63 7.30 — — 3 18 14% 1 — —
T. Sakamoto M 90 7.20 — — — 30 27% 2 — —
E. Simms F 63 6.20 — — 1 6 6% — — —
E. Mason-Clark F 27 6.30 — — — 6 3% — — —
H. Wright F 27 6.30 — — — 2 2% — — —
J. Rudoni M 27 8.60 2 — 2 14 12% 1 — —
V. Torp M 8 6.30 — — — 3 3% — — —
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.60 — — — 35 26% — — —
D. Murkin D 90 6.00 — — 1 35 24% 4 — —
M. Clarke D 90 6.90 — 1 — 55 43% 2 — —
D. Sanderson D 90 6.20 — — — 45 39% — — —
D 90 6.30 — — — 34 29% 2 — —
D. Ozoh M 86 6.70 — — — 32 28% 4 — —
L. Travis M 90 6.90 — — — 60 51% 2 1 —
J. Banel M 72 5.60 — — 2 11 8% — — —
B. Clark M 90 5.70 — — — 32 22% 2 — —
B. Brereton Diaz M 90 8.60 2 — 2 24 17% — — —
C. Morris F 65 6.60 — — — 17 10% 1 — —
O. Fraulo M 18 6.00 — — — 7 5% — — —
P. Agyemang F 25 6.20 — — 1 6 5% — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Coventry vs Derby?
The final score was Coventry 3–2 Derby.
What did the model predict before Coventry vs Derby?
The model assigned 62% probability to a Coventry win, 20% to a draw, and 17% to an Derby win.