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Championship · Regular Season - 40 April 03, 2026 21:00
Coventry
3 – 2
Final score
Derby
#4 · 0 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Coventry
F. Onyeka (ast. R. Esse) 12'
J. Rudoni 68'
J. Rudoni (ast. M. van Ewijk) 80'
38' (ast. M. Clarke) B. Brereton Diaz
(pen.) 77' B. Brereton Diaz
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Coventry a 62% win probability (draw 20%, Derby 17%). The final result was Coventry 3–2 Derby. In 1 previous meetings, Coventry have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Derby.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
6
7
Shots on target
3
1.57
Actual xG
2.18
1
Saves
4
51%
Possession
49%
6
Corners
1
16
Tackles
17
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽F. Onyeka · ast. R. Esse
12'
29'
Lewis Travis
38'
ast. M. Clarke · B. Brereton Diaz⚽
↕ R. Esse / E. Mason-Clark
63'
↕ E. Simms / H. Wright
63'
↕ J. Eccles / J. Rudoni
63'
65'
P. Agyemang / C. Morris ↕
⚽J. Rudoni
68'
72'
O. Fraulo / J. Banel ↕
77'
(pen.) B. Brereton Diaz⚽
⚽J. Rudoni · ast. M. van Ewijk
80'
81'
Patrick Agyemang
86'
C. Allen / D. Ozoh ↕
↕ M. Grimes / V. Torp
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
62.23%
Coventry ←
20.33%
X
17.43%
Derby
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Coventry) 62.23% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Coventry
2.24
1.57
-0.67
Derby
1.12
2.18
+1.06
Derby dominated by xG (2.18 vs 1.57). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Birmingham Birmingham 0 0
2 Blackburn Blackburn 0 0
3 Bolton Bolton 0 0
4 Derby Derby 0 0
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0 0
6 Portsmouth Portsmouth 0 0
7 West Ham West Ham 0 0
8 Bristol City Bristol City 0 0
9 Burnley Burnley 0 0
10 Cardiff Cardiff 0 0
11 Charlton Charlton 0 0
12 Norwich Norwich 0 0
13 Preston Preston 0 0
14 QPR QPR 0 0
15 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 0 0
16 Stoke City Stoke City 0 0
17 Watford Watford 0 0
18 West Brom West Brom 0 0
19 Wolves Wolves 0 0
20 Millwall Millwall 0 0
21 Swansea Swansea 0 0
22 Lincoln Lincoln 0 0
23 Wrexham Wrexham 0 0
24 Southampton Southampton 0 0
Lineups
Coventry Coventry 4-2-3-1
19
G 5.60
3 J. Dasilva J. Dasilva D 6.20
15
D 6.90
4 B. Thomas B. Thomas D 7.30
27 M. van Ewijk M. van Ewijk 1 👟 D 6.90
16 Frank Onyeka Frank Onyeka 1 ⚽ M 7.90
6
Matt Grimes 89' M 6.90
14
R. Esse 1 👟 63' M 6.90
28
J. Eccles 63' M 7.30
7
T. Sakamoto M 7.20
9 E. Simms E. Simms 63' F 6.20
Bench
10 E. Mason-Clark E. Mason-Clark 27' F 6.30
11 Haji Wright Haji Wright 27' F 6.30
5
J. Rudoni 2 ⚽ 27' M 8.60
20
K. Kesler-Hayden D
29 V. Torp V. Torp 8' M 6.30
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
12
G 7.60
2
D. Murkin D 6.00
5 Matt Clarke Matt Clarke 1 👟 D 6.90
28 Dion Sanderson Dion Sanderson D 6.20
23
D 6.30
18
D. Ozoh 86' M 6.70
27 Lewis Travis Lewis Travis M 6.90
34
J. Banel 72' M 5.60
42 Bobby Clark Bobby Clark M 5.70
25 Ben Brereton Díaz Ben Brereton Díaz 2 ⚽ M 8.60
9 Carlton Morris Carlton Morris 65' F 6.60
Bench
3 Craig Forsyth Craig Forsyth D
29 Oscar Fraulo Oscar Fraulo 18' M 6.00
7 P. Agyemang P. Agyemang 25' F 6.20
Best on the pitch
Ben Brereton Díaz
Ben Brereton Díaz
M · Derby
8.60
2 ⚽
2 shots · 24 pass
J. Rudoni
M · Coventry
8.60
2 ⚽
2 shots · 14 pass
Frank Onyeka
Frank Onyeka
M · Coventry
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 36 pass
G · Derby
7.60
· 35 pass
B. Thomas
B. Thomas
D · Coventry
7.30
1 shots · 40 pass
J. Eccles
M · Coventry
7.30
3 shots · 18 pass
Coventry Coventry — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.60 — — — 38 21% — — —
J. Dasilva D 90 6.20 — — — 53 44% — — —
D 90 6.90 — — — 55 45% 1 — —
B. Thomas D 90 7.30 — — 1 40 31% 1 — —
M. van Ewijk D 90 6.90 — 1 — 36 25% 4 — —
Frank Onyeka M 90 7.90 1 — 1 36 24% 4 — —
Matt Grimes M 89 6.90 — — — 52 42% — — —
R. Esse M 63 6.90 — 1 1 18 14% 2 — —
J. Eccles M 63 7.30 — — 3 18 14% 1 — —
T. Sakamoto M 90 7.20 — — — 30 27% 2 — —
E. Simms F 63 6.20 — — 1 6 6% — — —
E. Mason-Clark F 27 6.30 — — — 6 3% — — —
Haji Wright F 27 6.30 — — — 2 2% — — —
J. Rudoni M 27 8.60 2 — 2 14 12% 1 — —
V. Torp M 8 6.30 — — — 3 3% — — —
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.60 — — — 35 26% — — —
D. Murkin D 90 6.00 — — 1 35 24% 4 — —
Matt Clarke D 90 6.90 — 1 — 55 43% 2 — —
Dion Sanderson D 90 6.20 — — — 45 39% — — —
D 90 6.30 — — — 34 29% 2 — —
D. Ozoh M 86 6.70 — — — 32 28% 4 — —
Lewis Travis M 90 6.90 — — — 60 51% 2 1 —
J. Banel M 72 5.60 — — 2 11 8% — — —
Bobby Clark M 90 5.70 — — — 32 22% 2 — —
Ben Brereton Díaz M 90 8.60 2 — 2 24 17% — — —
Carlton Morris F 65 6.60 — — — 17 10% 1 — —
Oscar Fraulo M 18 6.00 — — — 7 5% — — —
P. Agyemang F 25 6.20 — — 1 6 5% — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Coventry vs Derby?
The final score was Coventry 3–2 Derby.
What did the model predict before Coventry vs Derby?
The model assigned 62% probability to a Coventry win, 20% to a draw, and 17% to an Derby win.