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Championship · Regular Season - 40 April 03, 2026 21:00
Coventry
3 – 2
Final score
Derby
#22 · 5 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Coventry
F. Onyeka (ast. R. Esse) 12'
J. Rudoni 68'
J. Rudoni (ast. M. van Ewijk) 80'
38' (ast. M. Clarke) B. Brereton Diaz
(pen.) 77' B. Brereton Diaz
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Coventry a 62% win probability (draw 20%, Derby 17%). The final result was Coventry 3–2 Derby. In 1 previous meetings, Coventry have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Derby.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
6
7
Shots on target
3
1.57
Actual xG
2.18
1
Saves
4
51%
Possession
49%
6
Corners
1
16
Tackles
17
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽F. Onyeka · ast. R. Esse
12'
29'
Lewis Travis
38'
ast. M. Clarke · B. Brereton Diaz⚽
↕ R. Esse / E. Mason-Clark
63'
↕ E. Simms / H. Wright
63'
↕ J. Eccles / J. Rudoni
63'
65'
P. Agyemang / C. Morris ↕
⚽J. Rudoni
68'
72'
O. Fraulo / J. Banel ↕
77'
(pen.) B. Brereton Diaz⚽
⚽J. Rudoni · ast. M. van Ewijk
80'
81'
Patrick Agyemang
86'
C. Allen / D. Ozoh ↕
↕ M. Grimes / V. Torp
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
62.23%
Coventry ←
20.33%
X
17.43%
Derby
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Coventry) 62.23% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Coventry
2.24
1.57
-0.67
Derby
1.12
2.18
+1.06
Derby dominated by xG (2.18 vs 1.57). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Swansea Swansea 8 17
2 West Ham West Ham 8 15
3 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 8 15
4 Wolves Wolves 7 14
5 West Brom West Brom 8 14
6 QPR QPR 8 13
7 Stoke City Stoke City 8 13
8 Bristol City Bristol City 8 13
9 Charlton Charlton 8 12
10 Birmingham Birmingham 8 11
11 Millwall Millwall 8 11
12 Lincoln Lincoln 8 11
13 Southampton Southampton 8 10
14 Wrexham Wrexham 8 10
15 Bolton Bolton 8 10
16 Blackburn Blackburn 8 9
17 Norwich Norwich 8 9
18 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 8 9
19 Portsmouth Portsmouth 7 8
20 Watford Watford 8 8
21 Cardiff Cardiff 8 7
22 Derby Derby 8 5
23 Preston Preston 8 4
24 Burnley Burnley 8 4
Lineups
Coventry Coventry 4-2-3-1
19
G 5.60
3 J. Dasilva J. Dasilva D 6.20
15
D 6.90
4 B. Thomas B. Thomas D 7.30
27 M. van Ewijk M. van Ewijk 1 👟 D 6.90
16 F. Onyeka F. Onyeka 1 ⚽ M 7.90
6 M. Grimes M. Grimes 89' M 6.90
14 R. Esse R. Esse 1 👟 63' M 6.90
28 Josh Eccles Josh Eccles 63' M 7.30
7 T. Sakamoto T. Sakamoto M 7.20
9 E. Simms E. Simms 63' F 6.20
Bench
10 E. Mason-Clark E. Mason-Clark 27' F 6.30
11 Haji Wright Haji Wright 27' F 6.30
5 J. Rudoni J. Rudoni 2 ⚽ 27' M 8.60
20
K. Kesler-Hayden D
29 V. Torp V. Torp 8' M 6.30
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
12
G 7.60
2
D. Murkin D 6.00
5 Matt Clarke Matt Clarke 1 👟 D 6.90
28 D. Sanderson D. Sanderson D 6.20
23
D 6.30
18 D. Ozoh D. Ozoh 86' M 6.70
27 L. Travis L. Travis M 6.90
34
J. Banel 72' M 5.60
42 B. Clark B. Clark M 5.70
25 Ben Brereton Díaz Ben Brereton Díaz 2 ⚽ M 8.60
9 C. Morris C. Morris 65' F 6.60
Bench
3 C. Forsyth C. Forsyth D
29 O. Fraulo O. Fraulo 18' M 6.00
7 P. Agyemang P. Agyemang 25' F 6.20
Best on the pitch
Ben Brereton Díaz
Ben Brereton Díaz
M · Derby
8.60
2 ⚽
2 shots · 24 pass
J. Rudoni
J. Rudoni
M · Coventry
8.60
2 ⚽
2 shots · 14 pass
F. Onyeka
F. Onyeka
M · Coventry
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 36 pass
G · Derby
7.60
· 35 pass
B. Thomas
B. Thomas
D · Coventry
7.30
1 shots · 40 pass
Josh Eccles
Josh Eccles
M · Coventry
7.30
3 shots · 18 pass
Coventry Coventry — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.60 — — — 38 21% — — —
J. Dasilva D 90 6.20 — — — 53 44% — — —
D 90 6.90 — — — 55 45% 1 — —
B. Thomas D 90 7.30 — — 1 40 31% 1 — —
M. van Ewijk D 90 6.90 — 1 — 36 25% 4 — —
F. Onyeka M 90 7.90 1 — 1 36 24% 4 — —
M. Grimes M 89 6.90 — — — 52 42% — — —
R. Esse M 63 6.90 — 1 1 18 14% 2 — —
Josh Eccles M 63 7.30 — — 3 18 14% 1 — —
T. Sakamoto M 90 7.20 — — — 30 27% 2 — —
E. Simms F 63 6.20 — — 1 6 6% — — —
E. Mason-Clark F 27 6.30 — — — 6 3% — — —
Haji Wright F 27 6.30 — — — 2 2% — — —
J. Rudoni M 27 8.60 2 — 2 14 12% 1 — —
V. Torp M 8 6.30 — — — 3 3% — — —
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.60 — — — 35 26% — — —
D. Murkin D 90 6.00 — — 1 35 24% 4 — —
Matt Clarke D 90 6.90 — 1 — 55 43% 2 — —
D. Sanderson D 90 6.20 — — — 45 39% — — —
D 90 6.30 — — — 34 29% 2 — —
D. Ozoh M 86 6.70 — — — 32 28% 4 — —
L. Travis M 90 6.90 — — — 60 51% 2 1 —
J. Banel M 72 5.60 — — 2 11 8% — — —
B. Clark M 90 5.70 — — — 32 22% 2 — —
Ben Brereton Díaz M 90 8.60 2 — 2 24 17% — — —
C. Morris F 65 6.60 — — — 17 10% 1 — —
O. Fraulo M 18 6.00 — — — 7 5% — — —
P. Agyemang F 25 6.20 — — 1 6 5% — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Coventry vs Derby?
The final score was Coventry 3–2 Derby.
What did the model predict before Coventry vs Derby?
The model assigned 62% probability to a Coventry win, 20% to a draw, and 17% to an Derby win.