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Championship · Regular Season - 39 March 21, 2026 13:30
Derby
#8 · 69 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Birmingham
#10 · 64 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Derby

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derby a 50% win probability (draw 27%, Birmingham 22%). The final result was Derby 1–0 Birmingham. In 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Birmingham.

Match statistics
6
Shots on target
0
1.11
Actual xG
0.06
51%
Possession
49%
6
Corners
2
Pre-match prediction
50.14%
Derby ←
27.54%
X
22.32%
Birmingham
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Derby) 50.14% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Derby
1.48
1.11
-0.37
Birmingham
0.95
0.06
-0.89
Derby dominated by xG (1.11 vs 0.06). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Derby vs Birmingham?
The final score was Derby 1–0 Birmingham.
What did the model predict before Derby vs Birmingham?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Derby win, 27% to a draw, and 22% to an Birmingham win.